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Old 04-28-2008, 22:31 PM   #1 (permalink)
WaltzingMatilda
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No Sign until the Burst of Fire

Here's the latest from Thomas Johnson and M. Chris Mason:

http://www.nps.edu/programs/ccs/Docs...Spring2008.pdf

From the intro:

Quote:
This article explores the reasons why religious and political extremism in the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border region ends neatly at the borders of the Pashtun
lands. It begins with a brief overview of the geography and typography of the border, followed by a condensed study of the key ethnographic and cultural factors. An understanding of the tribal and social framework of the border, particularly its alternative forms of governance, is critical to the subsequent discussion of the current instability and radicalization. In addition to religion, tribal mores that predate Islam shape insurgent behavior and should inform all aspects of engagement on both sides of the border. The article concludes with an examination of the history and the unintended consequences of border politics, and offers policy recommendations to begin to reverse the ongoing slide into Talibanization.
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Old 04-28-2008, 23:44 PM   #2 (permalink)
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I haven't read the entire article yet, but I would like to make some observations about the comments regarding the Pakistan Army campaign against the Baluch fighters in 1973 (pages 8 - 9).

I believe Selig Harrison's objectivity on this matter is suspect. In his book In Afghanistan's Shadow, Harrison concedes his close relationship and friendship with many of the Baluch Sardars involved in the militancy of 1973.

The accuracy of his accounts of the battle of Chamalang, where a majority of these casualties and alleged atrocities against non-combatant Baluch occurred, have been questioned by Robert Wirsing in his book Pakistan's Security Under Zia. Following is an excerpt:

Quote:
More common, however, was the view that Pakistan had never been a viable state, that brute force was all that held it together, and that the United States, in supplying its government with the arms to repress dissent, was exposing itself to considerable risk of guilt by association. No one more tirelessly advanced these themes than the Carnegie Endowment's long time South Asia-watcher, Selig Harrison. "As the Bengali's still bitterly recall," Harrison reminded his listeners in congressional hearings on the Reagan administrations proposed aid package in 1981, "it was American weaponry that the Pakistan Army used against them. Similarly, when the Baluch staged and insurgency of their own in 1973, Islamabad once again turned its US Equipment not against invading Communist forces, but against its own people. It took 80,000 Pakistani troops four years to subdue the Baluch, despite repeated strafing attacks on the Baluch villages by US fighter planes received under the military aid program and by Huey-Cobra helicopters borrowed from the Shah of Iran." In an article published in 1978, Harrison had written that " at the height of the fighting in late 1974, American supplied Iranian combat helicopters provided the key to victory in a crucial battle at Chamalang in early September when a force of some 17000 guerrillas of the Marri tribe, was decimated."

Harrison's claim was factually inaccurate and highly misleading. By 1970, Chinese-supplied aircraft made up "33 percent of the Pakistan Air Force's 270 planes, 65 percent of all the interceptor-bombers, and 90 percent of the first-line modern fighter planes at its disposal." These percentages rose even higher in the first few years of the 1970's (prior to the outbreak of the Baloch insurgency) with large Chinese transfers to Pakistan of the Shanyang F-6 (mig 19). The sinification of PAF's inventory was clearly in an advanced stage when the insurgency broke out in Baluchistan in 1973. To the extent that the air force was involved at all in the fighting in Baluchistan, the probability was slight that it would have used its Korean War vintage F-86 Sabre jets and not its newer and far more numerous Chinese aircraft. AS for the Huey-Cobra helicopter gunships, no armed helicopters of any kind were used by the Pakistan army against the Baluch insurgents. Pakistan had none of its own at that time, and the Shah loaned Pakistan only a small number (most sources say ten, but estimates range as high as thirty) of unarmed, Iranian piloted Chinook transport helicopters. These, according to well informed sources, played an extremely minor role in the fighting and were returned to Iran in may 1974 after only eight months or so in Baluchistan. They played absolutely no role, incidentally, in the battle at Chamalang, which took place months after the Iranian helicopters had been withdrawn.

Though its authenticity was questionable at best, Harrison's evocative tale of the gunship helicopters was picked up and repeated for years thereafter by a wide variety of commentators on Pakistan. The picture he painted of the dread American killer cobras raining death upon the practically defenseless Baluch insurgents inevitably made a powerful impression in a population that had only a few years earlier forced its government that abandoned a much bloodier counterinsurgency war in Vietnam....
Harrison's more current accounts of Chamalang are noticeably more "fantastic" in the language used to describe the atrocities, and their scale, compared to the accounts in Afghanistan's Shadow, written closer to the time of the events and therefore presumably more accurate in terms of recollecting details.

Conversations with some former Pakistan Army and Air force officers who recollect the Chamalang incident are also counter to what Harrison described.

Their recollections indicate that the Baloch camps and villages were not deliberately attacked, however small skirmishes were staged to draw the militants out from the mountains.
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Old 04-29-2008, 01:34 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I'm about half-way myself and saw that section, wondering what your reaction might be.

It would seem that you've a bone of contention w/ Harrison, thus Johnson/Mason's veracity.

On a larger note, Waltzing Matilda (from his left coast perch in lovely S.F.) is keeping an eye on the good work being done in Monterey by the boys at NPS. Really nice find that's expanding my mind more than a little yet, sadly, seems headed in a bleak direction with it's conclusions.

I sense no 21st Century renaissance for Pashtunistan. Guess I'm not leaping far with that prediction.
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Old 04-29-2008, 22:45 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Inner City Soldiers?

"The Frontier Corps’ problems have little to do with weapons and training, and U.S. troops recruited largely from the inner cities and trained for conventional warfare have little to teach rugged Pashtun hillmen about fighting in their own mountains in any case."

I'm shocked by the ignorance displayed in the above comment. If Mr. Johnson shows up here I'd love to read an elaboration of this comment. I would expect a more nuanced and perceptive understanding of our forces stationed along that border and those most likely to be called upon to train the F.C., were that to happen.

That aside from the gross stereotypes on display that read terribly poorly and indefensibly. "Inner cities" reads as P.C. racist code. "trained for conventional warfare" is ignorant of light infantry operating behind seven years of continuous combat and multiple tours.

Those F.C. would be privileged to be trained by damn near any of those light infantrymen. Personally, I'll hope not. We owe the F.C. and I'd prefer U.S. infantry to shoot the worthless fcuks on sight.

Stunningly weak.
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Old 04-30-2008, 09:31 AM   #5 (permalink)
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I wouldn't go so far as to dismiss the veracity of Johnson/Mason's entire article.

I am however extremely skeptical of any analysis on Pakistan offered by Selig Harrison for the reasons I mentioned.

That section I referred to ( I still haven't finished the entire article), used Harrison's work to offer background history rather than any analysis I thought, and my post was to point out the historical inaccuracy, IMO, in that presentation.

I am not sure yet whether Johnson/Mason have used Harrison's works as a basis of further analysis in the article.

Quote:
"trained for conventional warfare" is ignorant of light infantry operating behind seven years of continuous combat and multiple tours.
I would have to agree with that - I also disagree on that with many of my compatriots, when they indicate that "US forces have nothing to teach us".

For some reason they focus only on US combat experience in Iraq, ignoring the even longer presence in Afghanistan, and using the difference in terrain between Iraq and FATA to validate their opinion.

I believe there is a wealth of COIN experience gained in Afghanistan that the US can share with both the PA and the FC, which will be useful in Baluchistan as well.
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Old 04-30-2008, 12:27 PM   #6 (permalink)
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You found cause to question credibility. So too I. On two unrelated topics.

That worries me despite really enjoying the presentation up to then. Here's the problem. The topic is complex to a western novice. It demands acquiescence to knowledgable authority, i.e. Johnson/Mason. Naturally, questionable phrases and inaccurate topical depictions detract from essential credibility.

You get the picture.

Johnson's Shabnamah article was illuminating. So too this presentation in many respects. I don't know much about the Baluchi insurgency of 1973-77 but I'm fairly acquainted w/ what's happening today along Afghanistan/Pakistan's border.

Just now, some of the most proficient practicioners of COIN-craft in the U.S. Army have been plying their trade along that border- and doing so by every account I've recently seen VERY effectively (see Shek's recent Kilcullen posting from SWJ in the Staff College). We've lacked numbers and money but there's been no lack of skill by those "inner city" conventional warriors. Johnson's comments are almost embarassingly crude and certainly have disturbed if not fully distracted me from his larger message.
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