S-2

Taliban Wields Axe Ahead of New Battle

Mehsud's drawn unwanted attention to the Taliban's critically important and long-nurtured sanctuary. Nothing comparable exists in Afghanistan. The Taliban can't afford alienating the Pakistani Pashtun tribes nor losing Quetta and their Pakistani networks of supply, arms, drug markets, and banking. Doing so would be comparable to only Zarqawi and the AQI's boneheaded defeat in al-Anbar. In fact, the twin battles of Pakistan and Afghanistan are unsustainable and NOT mirror-image conflicts. Thus, a choice seems to have been made.

The Taliban have chosen to contest Afghanistan and must retain their advantage of Pakistani sanctuary. Mehsud has endangered this irreplacable asset. Mullah Omar seeks to restore his operational rear while simultaneously endangering NATO's.

If so, the best peace-feeler Omar could extend to Musharraf would be to visibly re-orient the Taliban towards the Americans in Nangahar, Paktia, and Paktika and the British, Dutch, and Canadians in Helmand/Kandahar/Uruzgan. American forces might well welcome this development. The Canadians, Dutch, and British less so. Dramatically stepping up attacks against NATO now (despite winter-time), of course, would indirectly reveal just how important retaining these Pakistani support networks is to the Taliban. It appears that this re-orientation has begun-

"Certainly, the Taliban will be keen to advance from these positions, but they will also concentrate on destroying NATO's supply lines from Pakistan into Afghanistan. The Taliban launched their first attack in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province on Monday, destroying a convoy of oil tankers destined for NATO's Kandahar air field.

'If NATO's supply lines are shut down from Pakistan, NATO will sweat in Afghanistan,' a member of a leading humanitarian organization in Kabul told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity. 'The only substitute would be air operations, but then NATO costs would sky-rocket.'"

This interesting point, which harkens to implications of convoy security ala the Kuwait-Baghdad Express now in operation, coupled with the revelations of disharmony within Pakistan between al-Qaeda, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Afghani Taliban, the Bajeur and Mehsud tribes is provocative. So too the comments about Pakistani peace feelers-

"Pakistan was reaching out with an olive branch to the Pakistani Taliban. Main commanders, including Hafiz Gul Bahadur and the main Afghan Taliban based in Pakistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani, signed peace agreements..."

Uh...what KIND of peace agreements? Deflection?

Some thoughts.

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

Ray

As per reports in the open media, it is well established that Quetta and Peshawar are the hubs from where the AQ/ Taliban direct their operations and it is their logistic hub.

So far, the terrorists in this area have been low key with incidents of sporadic action.

However, the attacks on Forts, capturing more than a company and half of Pakistani military personnel and offensive in the Swat Valley has shaken Pakistan and the sympathy the terrorists may have had, are slowly waning and the Pakistan Army is being inducted in larger strength to combat these terrorists.

It is obvious that if too much of activities of government troops occur in these areas, the activities of the AQ/ Taliban would be commensurately made difficult. Obviously, this will create difficulties for the terrorist actions in Afghanistan.

It is but natural that Mehsud had to be brought down a couple of notches.

Given the Pashtun/ Pathan mentality, where it will be taken as a slight, Mehsud and his followers will not accept this "punishment" and will stake out on their own.

Could this result in a split in the Terrorist organisation?

It should be remembered that Mehsud commands high respect within his own clan.

__________________


"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

Cactus

Umm... something doesn't seem right about the claimed road-network vulnerability (and I don't mean your observation, S-2, which is made on the premise that the vulnerability does exist). Given the precarious road conditions on the Bolan Pass, I somehow doubt that NATO forces have left their life-line on the road. The bulk of the logistics is still air-lifted, I believe. Maybe the "major humanitarian organization" is worried about its logistical lines?

S-2

"The bulk of the logistics is still air-lifted, I believe."

You could be correct. I don't know but it's now, I suppose, something that needs more understanding. We need more troops. If so, we also need to sustain them. We've paid Pakistani truckers to do this in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, I'd think that there's a chance here also. However, unless there's something I don't know, we can't secure our own convoys out of Karachi or wherever in Pakistan, unlike Kuwait.

Frankly, NATO should ship by rail through Russia.