China's Navy

**Master Chief** · 09 Feb 08,, 02:21

Ok, I just wanted to get everyone's opinion of there navy? Now we all know that they are starting a carrier program. But it will be a long time before they could even come close to U.S. carrier program.

Now some of there ship look inpressive but there surf. to air missiles are lacking, but in time they will be up to snuff. They have a fair amount of new ships, the Luhai DDG,Luhu DDg, and the Luyang I/II . The Type 051C.

What are some of your opinions of there navy? Do you think a major threat, or minor threat? What do you think?

**dave lukins** · 09 Feb 08,, 02:32

Master Chief..Sir, why would you think there is a minor or major threat? If so, who are they threatening?

**astralis** · 09 Feb 08,, 03:06

it's going to be a long, long time before they start moving out from green-water status. they're just now finally starting to go beyond brown-water.

**fitz** · 09 Feb 08,, 03:33

Originally Posted by Master Chief

Ok, I just wanted to get everyone's opinion of there navy? Now we all know that they are starting a carrier program. But it will be a long time before they could even come close to U.S. carrier program.

Now some of there ship look inpressive but there surf. to air missiles are lacking, but in time they will be up to snuff. They have a fair amount of new ships, the Luhai DDG,Luhu DDg, and the Luyang I/II . The Type 051C.

What are some of your opinions of there navy? Do you think a major threat, or minor threat? What do you think?

The PRC Navy is adequate to protect the nations territorial waters from outside aggressors.

Fair nuff?

They have precious little blue water experience. Only a handful of the most recent ships could be considered modern in any meaningful sense and none are ultra-modern. Many of the rest would not have been too far out of place in terms of equipment and capability in 1945 - including a good chunk of the submarine fleet.

**Officer of Engineers** · 09 Feb 08,, 03:48

It is a little more complicated than that. The focus of the PLAN, and in fact, the entire PLA is Taiwan and by extension the USN which means blue water operations.

Now, there is no way the PLAN can take on the USN and have a chance in hell and the PLAN knows this. The best they can do is to delay the USN and hopefully, allow enough time for the ground action on Taiwan to be decided.

It is from this perspective that the PLAN must be viewed. They want to deny or to delay USN action on Taiwan proper.

**~~Adux~~** · 09 Feb 08,, 05:17

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

It is from this perspective that the PLAN must be viewed. They want to deny or to delay USN action on Taiwan proper.

Sir,

The question is, how long will this prespective hold true, 5 yrs , 10 yrs, 15 yrs.

I believe there is a pattern to their naval expansion, and I sincerely believe they will get Taiwan without even one CCP soldier stepping on to Taiwanese territory.

Adu

**Officer of Engineers** · 09 Feb 08,, 05:19

Originally Posted by Adux

Sir,

The question is, how long will this prespective hold true, 5 yrs , 10 yrs, 15 yrs.

Ask me again in the next procurement cycle - in another 20 years.

Originally Posted by Adux

I believe there is a pattern to their naval expansion, and I sincerely believe they will get Taiwan without even one CCP soldier stepping on to Taiwanese territory.

I no longer predict the future but as far as their current procurement is concerned, they could not take Taiwan.

**wabpilot** · 09 Feb 08,, 05:26

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

It is a little more complicated than that. The focus of the PLAN, and in fact, the entire PLA is Taiwan and by extension the USN which means blue water operations.

I tend to agree, it is a lot more complicated. However, the PLA is not just interested in Taiwan. You need to factor in the Spratly Islands, Viet Nam and China's increasing need for trade protection.

Now, there is no way the PLAN can take on the USN and have a chance in hell and the PLAN knows this. The best they can do is to delay the USN and hopefully, allow enough time for the ground action on Taiwan to be decided.

The PLAN lacks the sea lift capacity to initiate, much less sustain, ground action on Taiwan, or anywhere else for that matter. If the PLA is going to war, it's going by train, by truck or on foot. Sea transport is not currently an option.

I see the Communist Chinese strategy against Taiwan as more disruptive than anything else. The PRC has some fairly dangerous surface to surface missiles aimed across the Taiwan Straits. Those are intended to disrupt the functioning of the ROC economy more than to achieve any tactical objective. That is the extent of the PLA's forces that can be brought to bear against Taiwan. Then the question becomes, can the ROC maintian economic activity in the face of that threat? I think they can. Taiwan has a robust economy with a strong ties to western and Asian markets. Disrupting the ROC economy would cause hurt throughout the region as well as in the PRC. The ROC also has a robust political system. The people buy into the notion that their participation in government lends it a great deal of legitimacy. Thus, in a foreign policy crisis, the people can be expected to stand with the government that they have installed. The PRC tends to forget this fact as they know they have little legitimacy in the minds of the Chinese people.

To the extent that if the ROC government started to act like a government in exile (as the Nationalist party claims it is) the communist government in Beijing could find itself with real problems. Especially in the relatively less affluent areas of the country where the Nationalists could exploit class distinctions. Oddly the Nationalists could claim the Communists had become the exploiters and that only the Nationalists could save rural China from the industrialists and their communist enablers on the coast. I believe it was the last Nationalist party President who said something to the effect: we will consider reunification with the mainland when they have reached the same level of democracy that we have. In other words, when the Nationalists can appear on the ballot on the mainland, then there can be reunification. The implication is the Nationalists think they would win such an election.

S2 · 09 Feb 08,, 05:31

Colonel,

Should we not give a nod to the generalissimo for running to Taiwan? It would seem with the PRC's obsession about energy security that a blue water navy prepared to challenge the USN over SLOCs would be far more important over the coming decades than the "forceful reunification" of it's recalcitrant Taiwanese citizens.

Invasion happens. Many of their military and commercial container ships sink. Ours sink too, perhaps, but how many? Probably far less with much of our navy never getting into the fight. Taiwan reconquered at what cost to all their national ambitions/requirements and a wrecked navy?

How does the rest of the world view an aggressive and now very wounded PRC? If it ain't a peaceful reunification, it seems that they lose before the first shot is fired. As long as my nation will stand with my favorite chinese province, the Taiwanese would fight.

**Officer of Engineers** · 09 Feb 08,, 05:45

Gentlemen,

Get ready for this. Guess who the Chinese is relying on for energy security - the USN. The Chinese have stated that the Freedom of the Seas, especially through the Straits of Malacca, is an American responsibility.

However, please be advised, that what I wrote is what the Chinese themselves are saying. I will readily admit that there are a lot of spots in their doctrines that includes the "And A Miracle Happens Here" tactic but it makes sense to them.

The Chinese at best can land a re-enforced corps and perhaps win one single battle of annihilation. They believe that they can negotiate from a position of strength after that one single victory (ie, they believe that they can destroy one of the three regforce RoCA corps and then dictate terms of surrender - ie, and a Miracle Happens Here).

Yes, you and I and the Commander can pick enough holes to drive the NIMITZ through but somehow the PLA Generals are still getting their paycheques from the CCP who are more than likely are buying this crap.

**Bella** · 09 Feb 08,, 05:58

What I believe is that China's navy is focusing on ships to defend and attack Taiwan, not the U.S. At current rate, I don't foresee China ever competing with the U.S. in blue water navy. Reason being, is that the U.S. is way too far ahead in technology and developing weapon systems that the Chinese can on dream of right now.
The only navy that could face the U.S. head-to-head was the Russians. That is because of natural resources, and man power.
The only way the U.S. could loose its' advantage, is by total economic collapse.
In todays world capitalistic enviornment......it won't be for a while!
25 to 50 years!!

**~~Adux~~** · 09 Feb 08,, 06:50

Originally Posted by Bella

What I believe is that China's navy is focusing on ships to defend and attack Taiwan, not the U.S. At current rate, I don't foresee China ever competing with the U.S. in blue water navy. Reason being, is that the U.S. is way too far ahead in technology and developing weapon systems that the Chinese can on dream of right now.
The only navy that could face the U.S. head-to-head was the Russians. That is because of natural resources, and man power.
The only way the U.S. could loose its' advantage, is by total economic collapse.
In todays world capitalistic enviornment......it won't be for a while!
25 to 50 years!!

To assume that others wont catch up in technology is just falacy, it is just a matter of time.

**~~Adux~~** · 09 Feb 08,, 06:54

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Ask me again in the next procurement cycle - in another 20 years.

Agreed, They are not going to challenge the USN in the next 20 years. But I am sure you see, a concrete effort to create a world class blue water navy on their behalf.

Safety of world sea-routes, is somehow a defacto US responsibility

, but I dont see the chinese letting them do that after 2 decades or so. But then again, I am ready to predict future

I no longer predict the future but as far as their current procurement is concerned, they could not take Taiwan

I dont think they are trying to take on Taiwan, They see a peaceful integration. The more China continues in their current economic path, it might, just might be more attractive to the taiwanese as well, as time goes by.

**Transient** · 09 Feb 08,, 06:57

but somehow the PLA Generals are still getting their paycheques from the CCP who are more than likely are buying this crap.

Isn't this bit the most unsettling of all, if it is accurate?

Sir, I'm trying to establish how much time the US has available to react to a notional Chinese invasion of Taiwan (or put in another way, the window of opportunity the PLA has till the USN cavalry arrives). From what point of the invasion effort do you think it would be clear to the US that China is staging an invasion, and how much time from that point onwards till PLA troops start landing on Taiwan?

Do you think they really think that the PLAN can hold off the USN for long enough for the invasion force to accomplish their mission of destroying 1 ROCA Corps?

**Officer of Engineers** · 09 Feb 08,, 06:57

Originally Posted by Adux

I dont think they are trying to take on Taiwan, They see a peaceful integration. The more China continues in their current economic path, it might, just might be more attractive to the taiwanese as well, as time goes by.

Taking back Taiwan by force is still a CCP tenet and since the PLA answers to the CCP, well, the Generals still have to earn their paycheques, ie, they must convince the CCP that they're formulating plans and assets to take back Taiwan ... as illusory as those plans and assets are ... but the CCP can't tell the difference.