That's my take too, Gf.
Another big if is the planned GSLV launches. With a 50% success rate and only 4 launches under it's belt, and the next rocket planned to use the Indian cryo stage for the first time, I would not be counting chickens. Also due to the recent failure, the GSLV schedule is bound to be kicked back at least 8-12 months.
The next Proton launch should go off on schedule.
And whether or not the Glonass-K will be ready in time is not at all certain, and that would affect the planned Soyuz launches.
Based on what we have seen in the past, it seems prudent to be a bit "cautious" wrt the schedule, if you know what I mean...



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