Insomniac

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/12756099.htm

What do you guys think?

Dreadnought

Restraint may be advisable, given the lack of combat experience of PLA officers and rank-and-file alike since a short war with Vietnam in 1979. Moreover, training of conscripts and soldiers, while improving, still trails that of the U.S. military.


"Everybody who comes into the U.S. military knows how to drive a car. They can drive a Humvee away. But I don't think that's true for the PLA," said Dennis J. Blasko, a former military attache in Beijing who is an author on Chinese military matters.

Quote:
Even so, some of China's top officers seem to be feeling emboldened.


In remarks that sent ripples across the Pacific, Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu told foreign journalists in Beijing in mid-July that China should be ready to attack the United States with nuclear weapons if U.S. forces intervene in a confrontation over Taiwan.


"We Chinese will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course, the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese," said Zhu, a "hawk" who teaches at China's National Defense University.


China's Foreign Ministry later brushed aside his remarks as personal reflections.

Personally I think he needs to put down the opium pipe that has clouded his judgment. You can bet the U.S. will protect Taiwan as it promised regardless of the size of China's military.

sparten

Nope, the US will not risk nuclear war over the issue. A nuclear war with China would be a disater for the US, sure the Trident D5's will close the chapter on Chinese Civilization, but with a dozen or so dead US cities, the US will no longer be the World premier power.

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Bluesman

It is not a given that it will go nuclear. I agree with Dread: we'll fight any move to take Taiwan.

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Officer of Engineers

Neither is China willing to risk nuclear war with the US no matter what the internet warriors say.

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Chimo

Insomniac

We can't really predict what the politicians will be like when/if war breaks out over Taiwan. The U.S. has retained a policy of only using nukes if one has been used on it. We don't really know if the Chinese leaders are willing to risk nuclear war. Are the generals of the Chinese military willing to risk it? Hell yeah, apparently. One thing I can say for sure is (and it's just common sense), you just don't threaten to use nuclear arms on a country that has 15,000 more nuclear weapons than you. It's not smart, but then again both America and China have had their own political idiots now and then.

As for the conventional People's Liberation Army Navy, the only concern I have at all is over those sizzler weapons and the silent submarines. Those alone can't win a war, but they could still cause some serious damage to a fleet. The U.S. Navy is currently working on way of countering the sizzlers and making better submarine detection systems.

Officer of Engineers

Let's get some perspective here.

Chinese nuclear warheads are stored in different locations away from their delivery platforms. The warheads are under the Central Military Commission's control, ie civilian control. The delivery platforms are tasked through the 2nd Artillery Corps. In other words, the military is at the mercy of the civilians as far as nukes are concerned. So much so that the 2AC could not depend on the availability of nukes in their strike plans, even in their exercises (the civies could not give their release codes in time). This has been so frustrating that the 2AC has pretty well given up nukes as their 1st strike systems. Instead, relying on conventional warheads in a precision barrage of 4-5 missiles.

So, NO, the Chinese ain't ready to even begin contemplating a 1st strike, not without years, if not decades of retraining, refocusing, and re-making their entire nuclear strike package.

As for Gen Zhu, he's pissed off that he's been passed over for promotion and is stuck at a dead end job being a tour guide at the NDU. He's in charge of the English speaking foreign students, meaning that he's job does not allow him ANY exposure to materials that his students might have a chance to read. Do not assume his statements are official policy because it's not, neither written nor in practice.

As for Chinese subs, until they get more sea legs, they ain't much of a threat.

bull

The question over here, is how will a nuclear war happen?

It can happen only if china attacks taiwan, so the onus is on china whether they want to go back to stone age or not?

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bull

also to add on, dhina is winessing a dream run right now,their communists have started liking the smell of money.They wont exchange that for smart bombs!!!

lurker

Does that concerns you? China is much less urban than the USA. About 40 half megatonn charges will destroy their whole infrastructure, but they will lose only 20% of the population. With 120 of the same warheads you can destroy the whole infrastucture of the USA, but that will mean 40% of the population will die instantly and 80% in the next 3 months. The whole continent willl not only sink to the stone age, nobody wil want to live on it for couple of centuries.

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Officer of Engineers

1) China does not have 120 warheads that can reach the US.
2) The damage done to China far exceeds your prediction.
3) Re-read the Soviet invasion plans for China.

Dreadnought

How do you come up with these numbers? 40%+80%=120% last time I checked.
Just for kicks the U.S. population = 295,160,302 (2005 census).
Did you know a vast majority of U.S. citizens dont live in these major cities that these missles are aimed at but the suburbs of these cities?

You can destroy our whole infastructure with 120 of the warheads?
For starters China doesnt own 120 warheads capable of even reaching the U.S.

Also this must be taken into account that our armed forces took the week off from duty and just gave up or deserted which i certainly doubt in both cases.

If the U.S. detected even one launch inbound from China the game is over and China would probably be showered with warheads that are very capable of reaching them from several different platforms not just mainland U.S. including our subs etc..

IMO if the U.S. fully replies then far more then 20% of China's population
(1,306,313,812) will be gone alot more then just 20%. P.S. I would like to see where this 20% number comes from as well as our 40% dead and 80% there afterwards.

I would bet they wouldnt even chance launching at the U.S. just a bunch of saber rattling like so many others before them that get a new weapon and a hard on to taunt the U.S. I think we know what that leads to from past examples.

As far as their sub fleets go..they have very long way to go with another countries who's sub force is far more advanced and has been playing the sub warfare game alot longer then they ever have.

And if they attempt to take Tawian, China just may find out that the U.S. not only will respond quickly but is more advanced then they seem to believe we are

tphuang

China wouldn't start a nuclear war, but it would fight for Taiwan even if it has no chance of winning against a much superior American side

As for the stuff about 20% of China's population gone, do you think that's actually a problem for the communist government? This is the same government that started the one child policy to lower population. They are trying anyway they can to loose population.

Dreadnought

Dont bother me in the least they are communists but I do know it would be far more then just 20% as stated previously above.

lurker

I know, I know ... all this stuff is highly uncertain (although I used the US research data, just dont remember where I got it from).

But several things to point out:
1) Nobody exactly knows how many and what kind of warheads Chinese have (You are being the biggest China spec-st I know probably have more data) - In my opinion that they probably have less, but more powerful (old style) WH's.

2) I dont' know the state of China's civil defence (if they followed the Soviet model - i.e. at least one nuclear shelter in any district, under the district clinic) - number of survivors is a thing to discuss (How about those things in the USA or Canada? Do anyone of you know where is your nearest shelter?).

3) The same goes for their ways to transport food. You don't need to kill all those people directly (Saying for example destroying the Great Lakes cascade that makes about 60 percent of electricity, and let say destroying highly centralized oil refineries (Texas?) to cut the gasolin production by 50% - will effectively reduce USA ability to feed it's population). I have the numbers for Russia but that is only it.