Officer of Engineers

There could be a repeat of the Tanker War in which the Iranians would go after civilian rather than to try to confront actual naval vessels.

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Chimo

Blademaster

That would be even more stupid. Iran would make a dozen more enemies than she had before. And almost everyone would be clamoring to take out the Grand Ayatollah and its nuclear facilities out, or even cause a power regime change.

The Arab states would like nothing more to see the destruction of Iran.

I do not understand this deep enimty between the Arabs and the Persians. What has caused this deep hatred for each other? Is it because Persians are primarily Shias and Arabs are primarily Sunnis?

If so then why doesn't Pakistan hate Iran?

Officer of Engineers

1) The Iranians did it before in the real Tanker War
2) Pakistanis ain't Arabs.

sparten

Blademaster,
Rivalry between Iran and Iraq goes back to the dawn of civilization.... literally. They HATE each other.

Well not that much, we do remeber Nadir Shah though.

Thats what the man said.

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"Any relations in a social order will endure if there is infused into them some of that spirit of human sympathy, which qualifies life for immortality." ~ George William Russell

Zhang Fei

They've been fighting over mastery of the region since way before Islam. Remember that the classical Greeks always seemed to be fighting the Persians. Weren't the Arabs in the way?* No, because the Persian empire occupied most of what is today Arab territory.

* At the time, the occupants of the region weren't actually Arabs - that happened only later, after Muhammad's armies built the largest Arab empire in history. The Middle East's Arabs are Arabs much as Hawaiians are Americans - they were originally Assyrians, Berbers, Chaldeans, Egyptians, etc, who were conquered and assimilated. This is why Arabs from different regions of the Middle East look so different.

Unipidity

Highsea: where did that $40 figure come from? Im always on the look out for any interesting stuff about unconventional oil sources.

highsea

That was the number Syncrude was batting around when oil was at $35.00. IIRC, I got it from their 2003 annual report.

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My baby called me up. She said- Why don't you ever take me out? Pick me up in your brand new car....You shake the short change from the old fruit jar...

Galrahn

I think 1,500 of those small boats in the Persian Gulf waterways would look very similar to a couple Iraqi Mech Divisions on the open desert in Iraq in 1991.

If that turns out to be true, based on the Iraq army history, the strategy doesn't favor the small boat theory.

sparten

France, sacre bleu!!! Now if you have a good place, with finer whether and better (read not hairy) women then lets begin the negotiations and you can have all your oil.
p.s I am thinking Nova Scotia in the Spring.

Officer of Engineers

Nova Scotia only have two seasons - storms and summer and summer is the day in between storms.

gunnut

You guys should visit sunny Sounthern California. The weather is simply unbeatable. Lace up a pair of skates and go sight seeing on the beach during summer. There are some fine women with huge...tracts of land...

sparten

Too warm. Parihaka, your terms good sir, you know mine.

Garry

It will have little direct effect on USA as most of its oil is not from Gulf (much more comes from your Venezuellian friends) Still oil market is global with spreads in grades and regions being relativelly tight. If Iran blocks oil to Europe it will result in USA procuring oil at higher price.

Agreed Iran can not shut down straits forever but as you and many here pointed it is perfectly in their capabilities to reduce navigation for a while.... increase risks (agree with William) and costs. I am sure that everhting - missiles, mines, a fleet of small boats and even artillery would used for that......

I took time thinking about Homuz issue and came to understanding that Iran will use it only AS A FINAL RESORT..... This action would be too expensive for Iran

danesheh

I don’t think it’s very hard for Iran to block the strait of Hurmoz. Since its only 50 Km wide. It’s known as the jugular vein of the world economy, and to cut a vein what you need is a knife, not sophisticated weapons.
Beside I don’t think their Navy is that bad.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...vah10404061417
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...vah10104061412

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...9ce26ce0b3b78f

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...2539139501.jpg

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...us_markets_oil

sparten

We need to get our defination rights. What is important is not crude oil in itself but the fractions in it, diesel, petrol and kerosene being the most important. Persian Gulf is the richest in these three.