NATO, Greece and Turkey (NOT another Greco-Turkish Thread)

[Rastagir]

Ok, first topic from me and I hope I get it right, since my english are not perfect.

My question is this: Is NATO going to survive a conflict between Greece and Turkey? And before anyone starts saying "oh God, not another bloody Greek, not another thread like this" I have to say here that I am NOT interested to hear who would win, who would be right, or things like that. I am only interested to hear your opinions on how would NATO respond, as a whole in the case of a conflict between two of it's members, especially since:
a)Turkey comes second after the US and is not easily intimidated
b) US sees Turkey as a significant ally due to the latter's important geographical position
c) US military is currently "overstretched" and one more warzone isn't exactly what she might like
d) Favouritism towards either one of the two countries won't be seen as a good move from the other NATO parties

Remember that in 1995, during the Imia/Kardac crisis, the two countries came close to war, and the US used her influence to defuse the situation. Is something like that possible today and if not, how else would the us respond and what would be the consequences?

Thank you all for your time. Please, no flaming.

[chakos]

There would be a veneer of neutrality but underlying all that the US would support Turkey and Europe would support Greece. The US needs Turkey as part of its Mideast strategy and Greece is a member of the EU. It would tear NATO apart at its seams in my perspective.

[Rastagir]

And the long term consequences of that? And I am always reffering to NATO and it's role. I am mostly interested whether or not a disintegrading NATO alliance will severely affect (and how) the rest of it's members, not only the fighting parties (who surely will be affected).

[gabriel]

US would support Turkey and Europe would support Greece.

Not so sure about that, anyway NATO could kick both out of the alliance.

[Rastagir]

Surely it can. But I don't thnk it will.

Thing is, doesn't NATO loses it's credibility that way? Especially for the smaller countries to see that, although being in NATO, that doesn't guarantee their safety and that they would be kicked out if they are too much of a bother, or left to fend for themselves. And losing Turkey I think is considered a major blow. You don't expell from your club the second most powerful member, especially if the US is counting on it's support on their middle East campaign.

[gabriel]

Thing is, doesn't NATO loses it's credibility that way? Especially for the smaller countries to see that, although being in NATO, that doesn't guarantee their safety and that they would be kicked out if they are too much of a bother, or left to fend for themselves. And losing Turkey I think is considered a major blow. You don't expell from your club the second most powerful member, especially if the US is counting on it's support on their middle East campaign.

It would lose credibility if it does not...
Turkey support in Afghanistan for instance comparable to Australia so i don't see it as a major blow to the alliance.

[Rastagir]

So, if I understand correctly, your view is that by expelling both Greece and Turkey from the alliance it won't have any serious consequences for the rest of NATO.

Thank you for your answers

[Parihaka]

As members of NATO the countries troops would be bound by the orders of NATO headquarters to return to barracks. If one countries troops refused and continued to attack they would be expelled then face the combined might of the rest of NATO: an attack on one is an attack on all. It really wasn't that hard to convince both countries to pull their heads in in '95.

[gabriel]

So, if I understand correctly, your view is that by expelling both Greece and Turkey from the alliance it won't have any serious consequences for the rest of NATO.

Thank you for your answers

As for Greece , her commitment to the alliance in Afghanistan is a joke. I'm sorry to say but both could do a lot more for NATO and less quarrels between themselves.

you are welcome

[Rastagir]

Yes, but that was 10 years ago. USA hadn't had the economical crisis or the combined fronts of Afganistan and Iraq on it's plate, or had to keep an eye on Pakistan and North Korea...And although it is undoubtely a superpower, it's military might has it's limits and would find it's powers overstretched (at least,military futurist Andrew Krepinevich thinks so....). Countries are getting bolder and bolder in defying it's will, or so it seems.

Anyway, I am not to judge the military capabilities of the US. If we suppose that neither Greece nor Turkey backs down, and they are both expelled from NATO. What happens next for the alliance? Is the conflict without any further consequences as Gabriel suggested?


To Gabriel: You are indeed correct. Although keep in mind that we are finding ourselves constantly on the defence and we keep one eye toward Turkey which vastly outnumber us. We don't have the luxury to send our forces overseas, and our air force are constantly on mock dogfights with Turkey's airforces over the Aegean. But let us not go further on this, because I really, really DON'T want this to become another "Greece vs Turkey" thread. I am only interested in the rest of NATO and their response

[gunnut]

Yes, but that was 10 years ago. USA hadn't had the economical crisis or the combined fronts of Afganistan and Iraq on it's plate, or had to keep an eye on Pakistan and North Korea...And although it is undoubtely a superpower, it's military might has it's limits and would find it's powers overstretched (at least,military futurist Andrew Krepinevich thinks so....). Countries are getting bolder and bolder in defying it's will, or so it seems.

Let's just say the US and NATO are too weak to react due to other headaches and Turkey and Greece escalate into a border war. US and NATO could just cut off all supplies of arms and spare parts. Let's see how long those shiny F-16s and tanks and ships can continue to function without parts. What happens after all the missiles are finished? I doubt Turkey and Greece can sustain a long conflict without a source of parts and high tech arms. It would descend into a low tech infantry war and people would be annoyed at their respective government.

[TTL]

NATO's response will also be strongly based on the political & PR aspects of the conflict. World will ask who is the aggressor and who is the victim. I agree cutting off supplies & arms will be enough to quell any major operation from any side but I think most possible war scenario would be, grab a specific objective and retain it after cease fire situation kind of thing, so an arms embargo may not be enough deterrent. Yet in such a situation Nato may simply do nothing since it won't change the regional power balance much and both countries are too integrated with west to leave Nato easily.

[Rastagir]

Let me remind you that the question is not whether or not the conflict can be stopped or what consequences it will have on the two fighting parties, or whose fault it is. My main question is whether or not a fight between two of NATO's members is going to tear apart or not the alliance itself, or damage it in a lesser or more extended degree. Won't it damage it's credibility? Won't it's members feel more threatened (especially the Eastern Europe members who will see the inability to deter a conflict within NATO's midst, so the question whether Russia or another aggressor will be deterred is going to be a major issue). And, let's face it, the US is the leading member. If it fails to protect and maintain peace, then....what's the point of NATO?

Let me remind you that, as far as I know, at least Greece (and I think Turkey too) buy arms from Russia too (Greece I thing has ordered Eurofighters from France?). So, an arms embargo will possibly affect but won't completely stop the arms flow. And black market arms are alive and well.

[Hitman817]

I think NATO would survive in some way, the US make up probably 90% of it and all the other members are dispensable. It would be probably called something else though.

[chakos]

It would lose credibility if it does not...
Turkey support in Afghanistan for instance comparable to Australia so i don't see it as a major blow to the alliance.

Comparable in what way?