Thread: Russia disappoints the world

A former half Colonel in the KGB a leoprd does not change his spots

Putin's rollback of democracy started with independent media outlets. When he came to power, three television networks had the national reach to really count in Russian politics -- RTR, ORT, and NTV. Putin tamed all three. RTR was already fully state-owned, so reining it in was easy. He acquired control of ORT, which had the biggest national audience, by running its owner, the billionaire Boris Berezovsky, out of the country. Vladimir Gusinsky, the owner of NTV, tried to fight Putin's effective takeover of his channel, but he ended up losing not only NTV but also the newspaper Segodnya and the magazine Itogi when prosecutors pressed spurious charges against him. In 2005, Anatoly Chubais, the CEO of RAO UES (Unified Energy Systems of Russia) and a leader in the liberal party SPS (Union of Right Forces), was compelled to hand over another, smaller private television company, REN-TV, to Kremlin-friendly oligarchs. Today, the Kremlin controls all the major national television networks.
"The Myth of the Authoritarian Model"
Micheal McFaul & Kathryn Stoner-Weiss


He (Putin) has also reduced the autonomy of regional governments by establishing 7 supraregional districts headed by former Generals and KGB officers.
Add to that he has reinstated long range bomber flights/patrols and much more, he has tried to hide it behind western suits and a modern appearence, but Putin is definatley old school.

Sir,

Russians have a huge technological and educational base, they are not the same as oil producing arab states. So they are not exactly third world in my opinion. They have matured industries, what they lack is managment of economy and a proper stock market.I am of the firm belief and I am sure rickusn would back me upon this, Russia is building itself up, and their chances of success looks more likely than ever before. It will be diplomatic stupidity to keep on provoking Russia, when in reality Russia and the west has the enemy now : Islamic Terrorism.

There is a concerted effort especially on the part of UK to undermine Russia, Whatever Putin maybe, the Oligarch's were worse. Oligarchs were pumping money into the UK coffers, when it stopped, Putin became bad. Lets not always be goodie goodie two shoes here. The west has also played enough dirty politics as much as the ruskies. I am sure Litvenko was killed by the FSB, but then again along with Boris Brezvosky, a former oligarch who didnt even pay his own shareholders was planning coup attempts in Moscow from London. What will be the US reponse if somebody was attempting to overthrow a elected US President?

Foriegn Investors will flock to Russia no matter what, The Oligarch's werent doing business, they were infact raping Russia. I will be amazed if the current Russian economy declined, i expect it to flourish even more under Mendenvev(spelling?), as I expect him to loosen some of the screws tightened by Putin. Which were needed when the Oligarchs were around.

PS: The greatest success of the West in my opinion, if it would be able to get Russia join the EU. Crack open on the SCO, China is no friend of Russia anyways. Time to look for new enemies.

Originally Posted by Adux

PS: The greatest success of the West in my opinion, if it would be able to get Russia join the EU. Crack open on the SCO, China is no friend of Russia anyways. Time to look for new enemies.

I have pretty well learned never to say "never happen" but if it does will be an awfull long time in coming

Originally Posted by T_igger_cs_30

I have pretty well learned never to say "never happen" but if it does will be an awfull long time in coming

Well the Brits and their Psuedo-Political Correct Brigade isnt making it any easier nor is poking the Russians where it hurts by the west. They may have short term benefits, but in the long term Russians going against the West is not in their interest even by a long shot.

P.Monk,

That article is utter tripe IMHO, his assumptions on the first paragraph's itself lost its creditability. Playing up the Chinese threats and advantages not their disadvantages.

Lwarmonger,

while London and Berlin welcome Russia’s billionaires, allowing the likes of Boris Berezovsky to openly campaign against Putin.

The New York Times > Log In

Originally Posted by Adux

Sir,

I expect the price of oil to fall to 60 dollars by the second of this year. Current price is artifical and not sustainable for long periods of time. Russians are aware of this and I agree with you they dont have a first tier economy but they are not third world either, and their base is excellent. Population is Russia's biggest problem, I have heard % has picked up this year. If yes, good for them.

Russia's industrial base is being hampered because their exports are artificially priced high. I'm not so sure that the price of oil is going to drop as drastically as you suggest, but ironically the longer it remains high the more difficult things will be for Russia over the long term. If Russia is ever to develop a modern information age economy, it's dependence on oil and gas exports is going to have to decrease.

Maybe. But the cement makes sense to Russians, Since China and especially India, we are experiencing boom. The last two years, a bag of cement has gone up by 50% in value. The Government is planning to import cement. Russia has an advantage over the west here, they have good R&D capability as well as cheap basic items. Something that is being serviced by China for the West. And India wants Steel like no other nation. So why not?

Because you have an educated population! There is demand for cement and steel, sure, but the value of production is so much lower than an information economy has, which is why most Western nations outsourced most of their heavy industries (the ones they retain are the high end manufacturing with large value output, or those with national security implications). The resources you have in the "heavy" portion of your economy would see much better returns in more modern areas, and be competitive for far longer.

You are precise in your assesment, except they have started chugging now. I expect the Russian economy to pick up in growth, even after the Oil goes down.

These industries are starting from so close to zero as to render percentage growth terms meaningless. Making it out of the infancy stage requires a lot of foreign investment and expertise, and in order to compete internationally those industries still have a lot of growing to do.

Lots of it has to do with propaganda, Russian government has only acted against Oligarchs. Neil Bush going with Boris Bersverzky to Lativa to 'educatonal software'. Whatever that was?

The Russian government has been gathering areas of the economy that it specifically views as important to itself. The oil and gas industry was targeted, and most of it is now controlled by the Russian government. That kind of attitude towards private enterprise in any portion of your economy has ripple effects. And sets a bad precedent. Rule of law and consistency is very important to attracting foreign investment, and Russia hasn't been doing a good job at either. You are correct in that thus far it has been very focused, so there hasn't been much of a backlash (in fact foreign investment has greatly increased over the past couple of years). However the more intervention occurs, the harder it will be to keep the dollars and euros flowing.

Lobby to harrass Russia is in works and Russia cant do much now, Other than what it is doing now. Completely unecessary.

How so?

Anyways, I have a feeling Menendev would do more to integrate with European community.

Do you really think Menendev would be calling the shots?

Ofcourse it is right, But I hope the West also does should factor in reactions of Russia, and it will not be like in 1990's.I am sure you are aware they were a superpower and is more than capable of building themselves back into one, as their current trend seems to suggest. Expansion of NATO currently is harrassing Russia, and there is no two ways about it.

The Soviet Union was a superpower, but they aren't going to be one again. While Russia has the ability to become a great power, Europe is continuing to integrate economically and is very far ahead of Russia, as is China.... and the US retains its commanding lead with an economy over ten times the size of Russia and military spending larger than everyone else in the world combined.

If Russia tries to become a military and political superpower it will only fail, and weaken itself economically in the process.

Like I said before, Unless Oligarchs are involved Russian government doesnt interfere. I have people running business in Russia, and they are doing extremely well. As far as I am aware Russian government hasnt stopped any company from making profits, unless they intend to steal resources of russia or not pay a fair price for it. something that led to creation of the oligarchs.

The Russian government exercises control over sections of the economy and businesses that it feels are important (oil and news thus far), and punishes people who oppose it. That creates a problem for investors, because who knows what section of the economy the government will decide to intervene in next, although until now the effects have been limited.

I am sure aware, Britain openly supports very anti-russian government faction. Boris Bersvozky lives in london and used it as the base to start the Orange revolution in Ukraine and start his Kommersant newspaper in Ukranie as well as in Russia. Which I might add is still running in Russia. Most of the money coming out of Oligarchs ended up in Britain and their Football clubs. Oligarchs out of power was a loss of income to Britain. 10-15 billionaire's out of the Financial Collapse of 1990's. I am sure you know that money is dirty. Russian government acted to protect its country and its people.

The British government's support for these oligarchs springs from the fact that they are being prosecuted for political purposes. The business interests that they have are not particularly significant to Britain (in monetary terms they are a drop in the bucket), however the fact that the Russian government is going after companies owned by them for political reasons is disturbing.

I also find it interesting that most of those being prosecuted for fraud and tax evasion are those who oppose President Putin.

Brits had to open a British council office without clearance from the Russian govenrment, they dont let that happen in Britain nor do they let that happen in my country. As much as I hate to say this, In this case Brits were a arrogant bunch.

The Russian foreign minister specifically said that the expulsion was in retaliation for the British expulsion of Russian diplomats in their on-going dispute. The offices were opened as part of the Russian-British cultural treaty of 1994... I believe the excuse the Russians are using to close them is tax violations. A very common theme these days, and one I have a hard time believing.

Ofcourse there are greener pastures than Russia, like say India. But there are some areas which Russia is doing very well, and is the best place to make money.

Russia can be a lucrative market, and has a lot of potential. However my impression of President Putin is that he is going to continue to intervene in the economy against those whom he wishes to harm politically. Right now that is the oligarchs who oppose him, and certain companies in targeted areas of the economy (the energy sector and telecommunications). If/when it starts becoming nation states (or their companies), that is when the flight of capital will begin.

Sir,

Why is that? I am more interested in this.

Russia's interests are not Europe's. Russia doesn't want to be part of the EU, in fact it sees itself as opposed to the EU in many areas (Ukraine, Baltic States, energy... not opposed here, but reaping every advantage it can and attempting to play European nations off against one another, ect). Russia right now is a nation that is trying to recapture what it lost when the Soviet Union fell. It doesn't want communism back (well, most Russian's don't), but it does want strong government (in the Russian sense of the word that means semi-authoritarian) and to be a force to be reckoned with independent of other powers. That is incompatible with a future in the EU.

On the other hand, Europe doesn't particularly want Russia either. There is already considerable backlash over the Poles and other Eastern Europeans who are entering Western Europe looking for employment. Part of that saturation of the job market is also what is driving the hypocritical opposition to Turkey's becoming a member ("you're too muslim," "your military intervened to make you secular," ect). They don't want more relatively poor people who will undercut their wages and whom they have no way of keeping out.

And the EU will not accept Putin's government. There have been a lot of claims about fixed elections (it is my opinion that any election fixing that has occurred has been quite gratuitous as there is no doubt in my mind that Putin is quite popular... excluding his opponents from public information mediums has completed the process), and the opposition is being increasingly frozen out of the political process. Putin is looking increasingly like an elected king to the bulk of Western Europe, and they aren't going to allow someone they view like that into the EU.

And finally there are the Eastern Europeans. They view Russia with suspicion (especially Poland), and any move to include Russia in an expanded EU would encounter substantial opposition from those nations that can still remember being dominated by Russia.



One final thought. In a lot of your posts I have gotten the impression that you consider opposition to Putin to be opposition to the Russian government, and by extension to Russia. I'm not sure whether that is consciously or subconsciously, but I think it to be part of the problem that Russia has with a truly western style democracy. As an American I can oppose the election of a candidate. I can vote against them, and I can oppose their views publicly. If their party controls the legislature and the presidency I can oppose them as well. However that does not make me against the US government. It means I disagree with the people who occupy those positions within the government. I still have my obligations as a citizen and a soldier, and fulfill both to the best of my ability regardless of which party controls what branch of the government.

Now, if the government starts selectively enforcing laws against people who disagreed with the party in power, that is time to start worrying. If people begin to associate the party in power as being the government, that is even scarier. From my perspective as an American, that is what is happening now in Russia. And the Russian people seem to be fine with that, because those who are being prosecuted and barred from participation are unpopular, and the economy is doing quite well.

Originally Posted by Adux

This Putin propaganda is getting a bit (out) of hand

I find this an interesting quote ,are you denying what is going on inside Russia right now?

ps... I inserted out as I am sure thats what you meant, forgive me if I am wrong.