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04-24-2007, 11:24 AM
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#1 (permalink)
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EU in a spin over reports of secret Moldova-Russia deal
Quote:
EU in a spin over reports of secret Moldova-Russia deal
23.04.2007 - 17:30 CET |
By Andrew Rettman
EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - EU diplomacy is in a spin trying to verify reports that Moldova has cut a secret deal with Russia on the future of the breakaway Moldovan province of Transdniestria, in a situation that could pose risks for future EU-Moldova relations.
The secret deal, first reported by US-based analyst Vladimir Socor, foresees the reunification of Moldova and Transdniestria on a model that would give Russia-controlled Transdniestria the power to block future Moldova government decisions and keep Russian troops in Moldova indefinitely.
The model suggests Moldova president Vladimir Voronin should recognise the separatist Transdniestria government in Tiraspol, hold new general elections and then give 20 percent of parliamentary seats to the Tiraspol clan, as well as the post of deputy minister in every Moldovan ministry, including the first deputy prime minister job.
According to EUobserver contacts, the draft reunification package also envisages Russia keeping its 1,300 peacekeepers in Transdniestria until such time as Moldova and Russia agree the situation is stable enough for them to leave, despite Russian promises in 1999 to leave more quickly.
The package has been negotiated bilaterally between Mr Voronin's inner circle and Moscow over the past six months, leaving the EU and US in the dark despite their status as observers in the so-called 5 + 2 multilateral format for conflict resolution in the region.
Some sources have been telling EU diplomats the Socor report is factual, but when the EU's special representative to Moldova, Kalman Mizsei, flew to Moscow this weekend his team could not obtain Russian confirmation on the agreement.
Mr Mizsei and US diplomats will on Wednesday (25 April) go to Chisinau to quiz Mr Voronin and EU top diplomat Javier Solana will raise the subject with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov at a meeting in Luxembourg today (23 April).
At least one EU official is sceptical if such a strongly pro-Russia deal actually exists. "We have not been consulted," he said. "But such a deal may not even be strategically possible."
Transdniestria broke away from Moldova in 1990 but open hostilities ceased in 1992 in what has grown to become one of Europe's "frozen conflicts," with Kremlin-loyal Transdniestria president Igor Smirnov and his right-hand man, ex-FSB officer Vladimir Antufeyev, running the territory as a private smuggling empire.
The Kozak precedent
A deal similar to the one reported by Mr Socor was already put forward by Russia back in 2003, but Mr Voronin declined to sign the paper after a phone call from Mr Solana urging him not to, despite the fact Russian president Vladimir Putin had already boarded his plane to fly to the signing ceremony.
The 2003 so-called "Kozak memorandum" affair is still remembered bitterly by senior Russian officials today. But one European diplomat said "Mr Solana may not be willing to help a second time if Voronin goes back on his word," amid popular hostility to Kozak-type solutions in Moldovan society at large.
Other circumstances have also changed since 2003: analysts say Mr Voronin's Moldova is more repressive, poorer and has less access to free media than four years ago, weakening the potential for political-level or popular opposition against the Russification of government structures.
On one side, Moldova's EU neighbour, Romania, fuels Trasndniestrian separatist propaganda by repeatedly suggesting Moldova is spiritually part of Romania. On the other side, Ukraine is in the grip of a serious political crisis that could end up pushing Kiev closer to Moscow and further away from Brussels.
In the meantime, the lack of any clear EU accession perspective for Moldova and the ascendancy of Putin's Russia as an economic and foreign policy power is making the EU look less attractive as a partner to the political and business elites of non-EU post-Soviet states.
EU appeal fading
"Moldova has deep economic problems and the EU is perceived as weak - the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) is seen as a placebo rather than as a real policy," Nicu Popescu, a Moldova and Russia analyst for London-based think-tank the European Council for Foreign Relations, told EUobserver.
The negative scenario for the EU envisages Chisinau and Moscow presenting the reunification package as a fait accompli to the 5 + 2 group in the coming months, putting into doubt the future of ongoing EU-Moldova negotiations on a new Action Plan, with EU visa facilitation and EU trade preference deals also not concluded yet.
But some analysts, such as Brussels-based CEPS expert Michael Emerson, would not rule out more positive developments once the political dust settles, pointing to a scenario in which Mr Smirnov hands power to his aide, the young, more open-minded Yevgeny Shevchuk, who helps a reunified Moldova to "one day become a more normal, modern country."
EUobserver.com
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A very curious development.
Is it Russia's reply to the Orange Revolutions and the like?
A very clever plan to have deputy ministers of their choice (indirectly) who would keep tabs for Russia. However, these politicians, mostly Communist turned great champions of Freedom and Democracy, are all up for the grabs to the highest bidder.
The politics of all the erstwhile Communist countries of Eastern Europe does raise a bit of a stink!
No offence meant. Just a figure of speech!
__________________
"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."
I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.
HAKUNA MATATA
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04-24-2007, 15:33 PM
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#2 (permalink)
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¡No pasarán!
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It's such a pity the Moldovian PEOPLE don't seem to be getting a say in this.....let them vote on what to do.
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04-27-2007, 06:20 AM
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#3 (permalink)
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Defense Professional
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crooks
It's such a pity the Moldovian PEOPLE don't seem to be getting a say in this.....let them vote on what to do.
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Transdniestria issue is being resolved in Kiev.... indeed, if Ukrainians firmy support Moldova in blockade of Transdniestria it will become re-united pretty fast... However, if Ukraine does not.... Transdniestria may be independent for VERY long. Moldova has almost no leverage.... all the leverage is in hands of Ukraine!
So.... Yushenke vs Yanukovich... the result would affect Transdniestria issue.
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