canoe

http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/6-2001/di/rsqr/

This article is a little old (from 2004) but it gets the point across. Do the Russians have the resources to successfully develop a 5th generation fighter?

From what I've gathered their falling behind drasticlly in weaponary and avionics, and as the analyst in the article points out the big difference between the 5th generation fighters and the 4th generation will not be their airframes but rather there electronics, computer hardware and software combined with advanced weapons. Which are all areas Russia has fallen behind in.

Theres also the major question of can they afford to develop a totally new fighter, the prohibitive cost of developing new engines (to allow for supercruising), avionics and technoligy required for a 5th generation fighter may put it out of their current price range given their military is already stretched too thin trying to maintain the soviet era equipment their already have.

An interesting alternative the article proposes is to simply enhance a design currently in service and use that as a go-between until they have the cash to develop a true 5th gen fighter. This would be similar to what the U.S did with the Superhornet allowing them to develop a replacement fighter faster and more cheaply that isen't the best in the world but 'gets the job done' none the less.

tphuang

if China joins in the development, then yes, as of now, I don't think 2.5 billion is enough. If you look at the development cost of JSF, F-22 and eurofighter, it's hard to believe that 2.5 billion is enough to come up with something on that level.

ajaybhutani

the point to note is that a lot of development has been done. List the TVC is there already. Saperate investments have been done for the AESA. (which are not there in the budget account here.). In the same way lots of avionics etc are developed or in stages of developments via SU47 project and MFI project. Though even after that 2.5 B $ might not be nough. but surely it wont need the extent of investment needed for F22/F35/EF2000.

indianguy4u

Dont forget the pay diff between US, EU & russia too.

__________________
Hala Madrid!!

Garry

I know for sure that Russia has a supercruising technology tested on MFI and Su-27 in 1993 and in 2004-05. Russian government financed $70mln on these works in 2004-05..... The continueing works on 5th gen engine would cost either $1-1.5bn + 3 years or $3-5bn + 5-7 years.

This is code name is izdeliye 117..... it is inferior to what Russian engineers think of Raptrors engines in some aspects still higher fuel consumption rate on supersonic modes than believed Raptor has, but better in other aspects (several supercruise modes and one assuming more than 2.2 mach speed). The engines are also considered to be lighter than what is though of Raptors and have higher weight to trust ratio.....

These engines exist, tested on ground, and flown. Now there is a time when designers need Government and RAF to decide between two alternatives

1) SCRAP THIS PEICES AND give designer additional billions of $ to improve consumption rates to be better or at least matching that of raptor. Then knowledge accumulatedo on this would be used to design better....

2) or start making the prototypes to serial production so that it could be produced in 2008-09 serially.... First of all this is investment into research on how to increase the resource of the engine. And also requries significant investments into component producers.

New Russian Izdeliye 117 has a monocrystalic disk with blades being part of the disk rather than being assembled into it on earlier generations of the engine..... In fact blades are made together with disc as part of it!!! And the technology for such a precision metal work is really unique... Indeed even normal balancing of the blades in the disc inside engine is such a precise work that even a 0.1 gramm disballance may lead to catastrophic result at slow rate of just 20,000 rotations a second!!! and they make it a one big and precise peice!!! I was really impressed listening to all this.

The problem with current 117 is that fuel consumption can not be gramatically reduced without starting all the work from the begging - basically making new design. The problem is that is was designed to have much higher trust/wieght ratio than they believe Raptor's engines have.... and this advantage turns to disadvantage as trust means comsumption.

However its advantage is that it made as a buildup to current AL-31F engine - you may use same hondolas - give a fifth generation engine to esisting Flunkers. It also has higher speed on its supercruise mode than what they believe Raptor may have...

No decision is made yet!

ajaybhutani

nice article .. btw is it from russian text. ?? ..
Do u have some more info/ links on it.... can u paste it for me here ( if possible)
thanx

canoe

"if China joins in the development, then yes, as of now, I don't think 2.5 billion is enough. If you look at the development cost of JSF, F-22 and eurofighter, it's hard to believe that 2.5 billion is enough to come up with something on that level."

Agreed. However I think if that happened the Chinese Government would take over the lead on design project (given the have all the cash) and just pay Russian engineers to work for them. In the long run I think Russia would end up having to buy the aircraft their engineers designed from the Chinese.
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"the point to note is that a lot of development has been done. List the TVC is there already. Saperate investments have been done for the AESA. (which are not there in the budget account here.). In the same way lots of avionics etc are developed or in stages of developments via SU47 project and MFI project. Though even after that 2.5 B $ might not be nough. but surely it wont need the extent of investment needed for F22/F35/EF2000."

The last estimate I saw for a true Russian serial production AESA radar is nearly a decade away. (This was from the Russians Defense Department)
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"Dont forget the pay diff between US, EU & russia too."
Granted there would definately be labour savings.
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Replying to Garry's post:
This isen't a design for competition with the Raptor (its finicially impossible for the Russians right now even taking labour savings into account) this is a design to compete with the JSF.

As stated in the article the engine they're designing to compete with the JSF is the AL-41F, as of 2004 it was 30% complete and needed another 600-800 million to finish plus another 150 million (minimum) to prepare it for serial production.

The other MAJOR issue the Russian airforce is rapidly approaching is alot of their aircraft are ageing and will need to be replaced in the very near future, given the budget constraints of the Russian military their going to need a cheap alternative or they'll be force to ground a large segment of their airforce and reducing in the air training time for all their pilots.

Given their situation I think they're better off designing a cheaper replacement for their aging aircraft and put more money into developing better avionics and weapons immediately. The next generation of missiles are 5 years off and currently the Russians have nothing definitive coming to compete with European or Amercian weaponary.

The big issue is the Russians seem to be they're obsessed with trying to maintain numerical parity with the U.S in terms of military hardware. The realistic situation is Russia would stand to gain alot more by downsizing its military to something more the size of the British or French militaries and start focusing on quality rather then quanitity. Right now the majority of the Russian navy is in such poor shape its dangerous for them to leave dock, for any other military that would be unacceptable.

tphuang

yeah, that's a good point, actually China and Russia is co-developing AL-41, I'm suspecting India is probably involved too.

As for AESA, the issue is not whether Russian can produce one or not, but whether or not they can produce one to the level of APG-77/APG-81.

ajaybhutani

I didnt know that China and russia are codeveloping AL41 esp when russia took such a long time even giving the TVC on offer to chineese. Do u have some sources for this.
If it wont be good nough for the plane it wont go in the PAK-FA/Mig35/MKi . But of course russia needs to invest a lot in AESA as it might just make /break big deals for it.

tphuang

no solid source on this. I've just caught this on a couple of site and I can't even remember where I read them now. Apparently, it came as part of the IL-76/IL-78 deal. Basically, it reads like one of those deals where China pays for a big portion of the development and just get a ToT in the end.
I think if you want to wait for Russia to produce something in the level of APG-77, you might have to wait a while. Considering the fact that Zhuk-MSF has yet to come out, AESA radar might take a little longer.

VovaLee

The first pre-production model will be in 2007.
The first serial wish to make in 2010.

Garry

Sorry that I can not reply to you in full now. But looking at the size of funds which Russia can spend on Generation 5 engine and how much it actually costs I can say it is possible but a POLITICAL decision must be made. Regarding the labour differences...... look a head of orientation department for all Russian piloted program earns 10,800 rubles a month that is less than $500 = $6,000 a year. This guy is VERY VERY qualified and don't judge his quality by the amount he earns. His peer in NASA earns 50 TIMES MORE...... If NPO Saturn tenders to do int for $2.5bn they are really capable to do it and I see no point for others to doubt having nothing to measure what the cost to make such an engine might be for them..... Listen you don't know at what stage is development of this engine is now.... and how much was invested into this in a Soviet times to dudge how much is left to invest.... I don't know it as well. So that is why when Mr. Lastochkin tells $2.5bn it is probably around that.

ajaybhutani

then i think we cant really call it codevelopment. Its more like partially funding.
WE never know whats the status of russians in these radars. As the less capable versions of AESA( if made in russia ) might never be tried for aircraft test flights till they know the radar is capable of competing with stuff like BARS etc they already have.

tphuang

yeah, I guess that's the more appropriate phrase.

As for AESA radar, it's definitely true that they probably already have something out, but just too costly or not good enough to compete with N011M.

Garry

I heard that development of radars and avionics is considered a priority now in Russia. However it turns out that industry simply can not produce requried electronic components (chips etc)..... hence now Russians have to decided - either to use imported components to be integrated into their avionics and radars or invest HUGE amount of cash into capacities capable producing required chips.... Current Russian capacities allow producing chips which are either too thick or don't have required capability. Probably use of imported components would be allowed as building chip industry requires decade even if funds were pumped right now..... So for now they would buy chips from Israel, Taiwan, China, Malaisia, US..... To do that they would need to ammend some laws and KICK OUT few guys who are opposing that arguing that this would reduce national security.....

Meanwhile I heard that development of radars looks at radar as a wheapon - not only a detection tool.... the focused electromagnetic shot of radar may destroy circuits of an aircraft or missile.....