Thread: Iran Raid Seen as a Huge Task for Israeli Jets

Here is an interesting pdf from CSIS (http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pub...strikeiran.pdf)

excerpts -

[I]Iran Nuclear Target Set
The main facilities which are critical nodes in Iran’s Nuclear infrastructure that can stop or at the least delay the program:

 Nuclear Fuel Cycle:
• Esfahan : Nuclear Research Center. Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF).
• Natanz : Uranium Enrichment Facility

 Plutonium Production Nuclear Reactor:
• Arak : Heavy Water Plant and future plutonium production center

• We consider three main target facilities which if attacked could either destroy the program or delay it for some years.
After analyzing the targets a damage criteria is suggested measured by the blast pressure of the weapon used. It
would be safe to assume a required 5 to 10 psi which would be sufficient to either destroy or damage the facility for a
long period of time. Care must be taken not to overkill for this could practically double the strike force required.

• Damage Criteria:
10 psi : Reinforced concrete buildings are severely damaged or demolished. Most people are killed.
5 psi : Most buildings collapse
3 psi : Residential structures collapse

• We then work out how many bombs must be dropped to cover a certain area above and below ground. To be on the
safe side, we consider weapons that penetrate hard and deeply buried targets (HDBTs). The Natanz facilty for
instance is reported to have underground facilities where the centrifuges are installed for uranium enrichment

• Natanz facility apparently covers some 670,000 sq ft in total, the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) complex was built
some 8 meters-deep into the ground and protected by a concrete wall 2.5 meters thick, itself protected by another
concrete wall. By mid-2004 the Natanz centrifuge facility was hardened with a roof of several meters of reinforced
concrete and buried under a layer of earth some 75 feet deep. It is reported that this facility will eventually house some
50,000 centrifuges.

• The Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) is an Industrial-Scale Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF). The
U3O8 is transported to ENTC to convert it to UF6 (Uranium Hexafluoride). The area of the buildings is estimated to be
around 100,000 sq ft. and are above ground.

• The Arak Facility covers an area of approximately 55,000 sq ft and contains the Heavy Water Reactor and a set of
cooling towers. There are no underground facilities reported in this complex.

Mission Planning Payloads

GBU-27 BLU-109 2000lb class penetrating warhead. Penetrates 1.8 to 2.4 meters of concrete/hard targets depending on angle of attach. It carries 550 lbs of high explosives, and can penetrate more than 6 feet of reinforced concrete.

This 2000lb weapon would be most likely used against the Esfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. In addition the GBU-10 can also be used.

GBU-28 BLU-113 5000 lb class penetrating warhead. Penetrates at least 6 meters (20 feet) of concrete, presumably reinforced concrete and 30 meters(100 ft) of earth. It is a 5,000 lb laser guided conventional munitions that uses a 4,000 lb penetrating warhead blast/fragmentation, which contains 630 pounds of explosive.

The GBU-28/BLU-113 5000lb penetrator would be the most likely weapon of choice against the Natanz Centrifuge Facility as well as the Esfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Used as a Bunker Buster. 2 properly sequenced GBU’s would most certainly penetrate the 30 meters of earth and up to 6m of concrete.The Probability of Hit (PH) of 2 GBU’s aimed at the same point essentially one following the other is 50%.

Peak Overpressure Distance

Weapon----------Warhead----------(kg) 10 psi(ft)---------- 5 psi(ft)---------- 3 psi(ft)
GBU-28 ----------------306-------------------- 62 ------------------ 92-----------------125
GBU-27 ----------------240-------------------- 59 ------------------ 89-----------------118
GBU-10 ----------------428-------------------- 69 ------------------ 105-----------------144

Esfahan
Facility not buried, and area some 100,000 sq ft.

We assume that a 5 psi blast is required.
• Assume a 90% system reliability, then 5 GBU-27 would be required.
• This would require 5 F-16Is if each carries 1 GBU-27 PG Bombs

Natanz Facility

• We assume a required psi of 5psi, as a 10psi requirement could be an overkill.
• We find that 22 GBU-28 are needed to cover the underground facilities of 585,000 sq ft in area.
• This would imply that on the average each GBU-28 covers an area of 26,600 sq ft.
• Since we also assumed a 50% penetration for each GBU-28 pair, we would then require some 44 GBU-28
PG Bombs.
• For the Uranium Separation Buildings, we can assume that the requirement would also be 5 psi, therefore
the number of GBU-28 comes out to be 3 that would cover the 85,500 sq ft area.


• A force of either 50 F-15Es have to be allocated if 1 GBU-28 is mounted on the Centerline.
• Or a force of 25 F-15E have to be allocated if 2 GBU-28 are carried.

Arak

• The main elements of the Production Plant to manufacture Heavy Water are
the set of towers that cover an area of some 55,000 sq ft.
• 4 GBU-10 would be required to cover the whole area and collapse the towers.
• We shall assume that 4 GBU-10s would be required to destroy the Reactor if the
Construction has been completed if and when Israel decides to go ahead with the
Mission to Strike Iran‘s Nuclear facilities.
• Force allocation required would then be 4 to 8 F-16Is if each F-16I carries 1 GBU-10.


Strike Force Required

Target Facility-------- If 2 PG Bombs are carried--------- If 1 PG Bomb is carried
Natanz----------------- --------25 F-15E------------------------------50 F-15E
Esfahan-------------------------3 F-16I--------------------------------5 F-16I
Arak---------------------------- 4 F-16I--------------------------------8 F-16I

Total ------------------------25F-15E + 7 F-16I-------------------50 F-15E + 13 F-16I

• F-15E Empty Weight plus Maximum Fuel = 66,831 lbs
• F-15E Take off Gross Weight = 81,000 lbs
• So each F-15E will still be capable of carrying an extra 10,000 lbs, 2 BLU-113
5,000 lb class warheads (2 GBU-28 PG Bombs).



 Total Force could be 25 F-15E for strike and 7 F-16I, with 38 F-16I for Air Escort/Fighter Sweep and Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD).

 Bringing the total allocated strike force against Nuclear Targets in Iran to 70 aircraft.

25 Eagles to destroy one facility? I am really no expert on blast radius, psi, etc etc... but for a 670,000 ft facility, buried 75 ft underground, reinforced, how many GPU-28's would be needed?

The B-2 carries 8 GPU-28's?, and according to this report, if it was the US, you would need to send 3 B-2's for one facility? Is the MOP operational? Do you think the B-1 is capable of penetrating Iranian a/d on it's own? Without a massive SEAD operation, perhaps only limited cruise missile attacks?

Originally Posted by Dago

25 Eagles to destroy one facility? I am really no expert on blast radius, psi, etc etc... but for a 670,000 ft facility, buried 75 ft underground, reinforced, how many GPU-28's would be needed?

The B-2 carries 8 GPU-28's?, and according to this report, if it was the US, you would need to send 3 B-2's for one facility? Is the MOP operational? Do you think the B-1 is capable of penetrating Iranian a/d on it's own? Without a massive SEAD operation, perhaps only limited cruise missile attacks?

That report is less than worthless, someone or someones lost time they will never get back...

Assuming the Iranian's are not stupid and didn't just use concrete and dirt but a couple of meters of sand or other loose particulate the bombs won't penetrate period. Fort Douaumont took an endless pounding from 420mm seige mortars and the inner concrete roof was never breached because of the sane cushion the French installed between the inner and outer roofs.

Likewise if the Iranian's are not stupid, the facility is likely baffled and compartmentalized. Put the bomb into the wrong area and you achieve nothing unless the shaking knocks the calibration off.

...other loose particulate the bombs won't penetrate period.

So it's all about location?

Your saying even B-2's dropping GPU's might not be able to get the job done?

and uh..one thing Iran has alot of is...sand :D

Even in that case, though, you would use a few more GPU's to soften a certain area, to make way for more GPU's to penetrate that area? I mean eventually, GPU's would penetrate.

Perhaps they will use BLU 118B or a larger varient (GBU-43B)?

(Air Fuel Explosive)
BLU-118/B Thermobaric Weapon Demonstration / Hard Target Defeat Program

Originally Posted by Dago

So it's all about location?

Your saying even B-2's dropping GPU's might not be able to get the job done?

and uh..one thing Iran has alot of is...sand :D

Even in that case, though, you would use a few more GPU's to soften a certain area, to make way for more GPU's to penetrate that area? I mean eventually, GPU's would penetrate.

I was talking the context of Israel. I am sure you can set up a train on the impact site and blow through, but that is not exactly an easy task. You don't want the bombs to hit the same crater but impact the same point. They also have to be spaced far enough apart that the blast of one doesn't knock one off course. Of course this means the sand or particulate has a chance to absorb and release the energy.

Its things like this- the construction materials used, the psi rating of the rock and concrete, the amount, placement and type of re-bar that are questions that need to be answered. Without hard intel on these questions everything else about how many or what types of bombs is just blabbering.

Likewise, I hope to hell that Arak is not fueled yet, it was supposed to go online last year. 40mw isn't big, but hitting a hot reactor is a nightmare scenario.

Originally Posted by USSWisconsin

Perhaps they will use BLU 118B or a larger varient (GBU-43B)?

(Air Fuel Explosive)
BLU-118/B Thermobaric Weapon Demonstration / Hard Target Defeat Program

Thermobaric Weapon are nasty. Real nasty. I don't think the GBU-43B would be an option, it can only be delivered by a C-130 correct? Instead of SEAD, wouldn't the US just use B-2's and a variant of CALCM with AUP-3M (Advanced Unitary Penetrator) warhead? The TacTom has a WDU-34/B penetrating warhead.

I mean in theory, if you lob enough WDU-34/B penetrating warheads, like 40+ or so, wouldn't that penetrate?

Edit: WDU-43/B penetrating warhead of the Tomahawk Penetrator Version.

Actually, I think the warhead you meant was Massive Ordnance Penetrator "GBU-57A/B". In which probably was being developed for Iran, or at least accelerated if you under the belief that the GBU-28 couldn't penetrate. I guess this is a 30,000 pound bomb that can deliver from a B-2.

That is a pretty damn fucking large bomb to be delivered by the B-2.

And I guess the most sheltered site isn't Natanz but Fordow?

One U.S. official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, described an attack on the underground site, about 160 km (100 miles) south of Tehran near the Iranian holy city of Qom, as "hard but not impossible."

The United States is the only country with any chance of damaging the Fordow chamber using just conventional air power, most experts say.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80B22020120112

But in a November 2011 article in Israel's Tablet magazine, Columbia University's Long concluded that Israel had the ability to attack the Fordow site using 75 bunker busters, each delivering a smaller explosive charge of about 1,000 pounds. However, he said it would require an unprecedented level of precision.

Long's scenario sees Israeli jets having "to do things the hard way," delivering 75 bunker busters on a single point to burrow through the rock.

I don't see how Israel could penetrate Fordow. I mean what is the type of precision of the different GBU's and within how many meters?