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Thread: Langley seeks third squadron of Raptors

  1. #61
    Senior Contributor JA Boomer's Avatar
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    Let's throw some numbers around.

    Current A-10C: 355
    Current AV-8B/TAV-8B: 184
    Current F-15C/D: 267
    Current F-15E: 223
    Current: F-16C/D: 1,156
    Current USMC F/A-18A+/C: 134
    Current USMC F/A-18D: 95
    Current USN F/A-18A+/B/C/D: 433
    Current F/A-18E/F: 332
    Current F-22A: 141

    Now, the USAF has retired hundreds of F-15A/B/C/D and F-16A/B/C/D airframes and even a few A-10A's in the last few years. The F-15's were retired at a worse than 2:1 replacement ratio with the F-22A, while the F-16's and A-10A's were retired without replacement.

    IF these numbers hold up,

    Planned* A-10C: 355
    Planned F-15C/D: 175
    Planned F-15E: 223
    Planned F/A-18E/F: 515
    Planned F-22A: 187
    Planned F-35A: 1,763
    Planned F-35B: 340
    Planned F-35C: 480

    So the plan will be to retire even more F-15C's at less than a 2:1 replacement for the Raptor, however the rest of the fleets look much better. The F-16’s and A-10’s can replaced at a better than 1:1 by the F-35A in the USAF. I left the A-10’s up on the list as it widely regarded that the F-35A would be a poor replacement for the A-10C, not fully replacing the capabilities of the Warthog. Also, the Marines are replacing their Hornet, F/A-18D night attach specialists, and their Harrier at a better than 1:1 ratio with the F-35B. The Navy also gets a better than 1:1 ratio in replacing the legacy Hornets with the F-35C. The F-15C/E’s and A-10C’s are expecting to remain in service until the late 2020;s.

    It’s not a bad picture but they are two very large issues. One is the air superiority fleet, with so many dedicated F-15’s being retires and only 195 F-15C’s and 187 F-22A’s left to perform a very important mission. How many F-15A/C’s were in the USAF inventory when the first F-22A was delivered? Must have been between 400 and 500. So either more F-22A’s are procured, some additional F-15’s (of whatever version) are employed, or some F-35A squadrons will be dedicated to the air superiority mission. The other problem is that the production totals for the F-35 may not be reached. If the price of production F-35’s is higher than expected, then less airframes will be ordered by each branch. If less airframes are ordered, the price per aircraft will increase, so it just gets worse and worse.

  2. #62
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    It was closer to 700 F-15s in 2007. I can't find exact numbers, though I admit I'm not trying very hard. The original 781 F-22 dream was roughly a 1:1 replacement "plan."

    I never said the Navy is incapable of being a Day 1 air power, my point was that it's the AF's job and we can do it better. If there are Navy assets available they'll definitely be used, but handing that task over completely isn't ideal. They do a hell of a job at being jacks of all trades when it comes to airpower.

    I actually agree with just about everything you're saying.

  3. #63
    Senior Contributor JA Boomer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy View Post
    It was closer to 700 F-15s in 2007. I can't find exact numbers, though I admit I'm not trying very hard. The original 781 F-22 dream was roughly a 1:1 replacement "plan."
    Ya your right it could be as high as that couldn't it. A quick search says 483 F-15C and 92 F-15D were manufactured for the USAF, these along with probably most of the 445 F-15A/B were probably operational at least in 2004/05 right before the F-22A entered squadron service. Wow, that force reduction is just absolutely silly!

    I could probably dig out some old magazines, and at least get exact numbers for squadrons, but I think you're pretty close to the right number. Plus Raptor squadrons typically have less aircraft assigned then Eagle units correct?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy View Post
    I never said the Navy is incapable of being a Day 1 air power, my point was that it's the AF's job and we can do it better. If there are Navy assets available they'll definitely be used, but handing that task over completely isn't ideal. They do a hell of a job at being jacks of all trades when it comes to airpower.
    Fair enough, I sorta miss read that comment, thought I'd stick up for the USN haha.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy View Post
    I actually agree with just about everything you're saying.
    Ya, this is not the first time we've had a similar conversation on WAB is it Jimmy

  4. #64
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    I was actually thinking about that as I typed it out haha.

    And yeah, there are fewer F-22s in a squadron than F-15Cs. If I remember right, it was usually mid-20s for Eagles, and it's high teens (maybe 20?) for Raptors.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy View Post
    I was actually thinking about that as I typed it out haha.

    And yeah, there are fewer F-22s in a squadron than F-15Cs. If I remember right, it was usually mid-20s for Eagles, and it's high teens (maybe 20?) for Raptors.
    IIRC every Raptor squadron gets 20 airframes, but only 18 are PMAI aircraft. I also came across this article today, apparently the never ending F-22 saga continues.

    Lockheed to preserve F-22 tooling for future use

    Lockheed Martin confirms the US Air Force has decided to retain tooling for the F-22 after the production line in Marietta, Georgia, shuts down as scheduled in 2012.

    The decision means that USAF officials will be able to repair and modernise the service's aircraft, or manufacture new Raptors.

    Lockheed says tools with "near-term needs" will be retained on site. Others will be preserved and stored in large, bar-coded steel containers commonly used by the shipping industry, which it says reduces "costs associated with conventional warehousing".

    Air force officials were not immediately available to comment, but have previously said that a decision to preserve F-22 tooling would be intended to support a future service life-extension programme for the stealth fighter.

    At the same time, the decision also implicitly preserves the option to restart production if future administrations decide that the USAF needs more than 186 F-22s.

    Congress in 2009 approved the Obama administration's decision not to extend F-22 production beyond the programme of record set by the Bush administration in 2006. But the Congressional approval came only after several months of heated debate.

    Meanwhile, Rand's Project Air Force analytical group published a study on 3 March showing that the F-22 supply chain could be reactivated after a two-year gap. Rand studied not only the availability of tooling, but also whether key suppliers could leave the industry within this period of time.

    However, Rand concluded that restarting production after a two-year work stoppage would significantly increase costs.

    Assuming a 75-aircraft production run over five years, it found the cost per aircraft would be $227 million. If production continued without interruption, the average unit cost would be $173 million.

  6. #66
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    The USAF may be looking to do an upgrade/redesign of the Raptor (like how the F-15A/C was changed into the F-15E). Lord only knows how much that will cost though.

  7. #67
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    I'm still hoping for a "white knight" situation in 2012 that will continue Raptor production. I know, I know, wish in one hand, spit in the other . . . . . .

    "Yeah. See, we plan ahead, that way we don't do anything right now. Earl explained it to me." - Tremors, 1990

  8. #68
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
    The USAF may be looking to do an upgrade/redesign of the Raptor (like how the F-15A/C was changed into the F-15E). Lord only knows how much that will cost though.
    There's probably a lot more involved in an upgrade/redesign of the F-22 then there was with the F-15; remember, a two-seat version of the F-15 already existed when they came up with the F-15E (nee Strike Eagle). There is no two-seat version of the F-22, nor will there probably ever be. The only upgrades that could probably be (feasibly) done to the Raptor are software and subtle hardware changes (upgraded avionics, upgraded engines, etc.), no major redesigns. At this point, it makes more sense (in that respect) to stick with the F-35, and possible upgrades/redesigns of that airframe.

    "Yeah. See, we plan ahead, that way we don't do anything right now. Earl explained it to me." - Tremors, 1990

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stitch View Post
    I'm still hoping for a "white knight" situation in 2012 that will continue Raptor production. I know, I know, wish in one hand, spit in the other . . . . . .
    Since the Raptor downtrend started under Bush, I doubt anyone is going to reverse it short of JXXs and PAKFAs buzzing Capitol Hill.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stitch View Post
    .............There is no two-seat version of the F-22, nor will there probably ever be................
    I think that's one reason why Boeing seems to have hopes for a "6th gen" aircraft.

  11. #71
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    Its probably more that if some freak weather hit one of the airbases and wiped out all the aircraft, replacements can be built. Or if its decided that the F-22 should remain in service longer then projected, replacement parts can be built, like the Hornet CBR.

  12. #72
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    Now this caught me by surprise. It appears that Holloman is losing its Raptors! The airframes from one squadron are being dispersed to other squadrons and the other squadron is moving to Tyndall. It appears that the USAF is losing one squadron of F-22s in order to give the remaining squadrons more airframes and to try to consolidate the the F-22s at fewer bases. Interesting.

    More F-22s planned for Langley AFB - Daily Press

  13. #73
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    Woah, didn't see that coming. I think it'll work out well for Holloman, actually. Looks like they'll bring in the Luke F-16s once Luke starts getting F-35s.

  14. #74
    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    Is this realignment set in stone? It reads more like a proposal to me than an actual order.

    "Yeah. See, we plan ahead, that way we don't do anything right now. Earl explained it to me." - Tremors, 1990

  15. #75
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    There are other articles that make it sound more like a done deal.

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