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Thread: China could take out the entire ROC AF on day 1 of air war?

  1. #1
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    China could take out the entire ROC AF on day 1 of air war?

    I was wondering what people thought of this story at Defense Tech. Can China really incapacitate the Taiwanese Air Force using ballistic missiles alone? Taiwan is an awfully big place, with lots of different places and means for hiding fighter aircraft. I've also driven through the main highway from North to South TW and it looks like long stretches could also be used as run ways.

    F-16 Sale to Taiwan, Would It Make A Difference? | Defense Tech

    Last week, Taiwan stepped up pressure on the Obama administration to sell the country new, upgraded F-16s, something this administration, like the Bush administration before it, refuses to do to avoid antagonizing China. The latest Taiwanese move came from its defense ministry, which released a report saying that China’s continued modernization of its fighter fleet has shifted the cross-strait military balance decidedly in China’s favor.

    The report says Taiwan’s ageing fleet of some 400 locally built fighters, French made Mirage 2000s, and 146 F-16A/Bs, are outmatched by China’s massive fighter fleet, particularly with China’s growing numbers of Russian built Su-30s. Only Taiwan’s F-16A/Bs have an edge over Chinese fighter aircraft, the report says. Taiwan requested some 66 F16C aircraft from the U.S. in 2006.

    Over at right-leaning think tank AEI’s defense blog, Michael Mazza raises the alarm:

    “Are policymakers considering the implications of this? The smaller and more antiquated the Taiwan air force is, the greater the number of American pilots in harm’s way should the U.S. ever need to go to the island’s defense. It’s not clear that anybody is doing this math, as simple as it is.”

    Actually, RAND did the math on this one in a report last year, in typical RAND style, using sophisticated modeling to simulate a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the 2010–2015 timeframe. RAND’s conclusion was that the addition of a few dozen upgraded F-16s would have little to no impact on the cross-strait balance. In fact, RAND found that in the event of a Chinese attack, “the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before much of the Blue air force has even fired a shot.”

    It’s not the Chinese air fleet that would deliver the knock out blow to Taiwanese air power. Rather, its China’s massive arsenal of ballistic missiles that in an opening salvo would destroy most Taiwanese aircraft, even those in hardened shelters, and wreck its runways before Taiwan was able to launch its fighters.

    Adding new F-16s to China’s inventory does little to change the ultimate outcome. Well, more Taiwanese aircraft would make a small contribution RAND found: “Taiwan’s air power can at least contribute to the anti-invasion defense by absorbing as much of China’s air effort as possible in the process of being put out of action.” In other words, parking more fighters on Taiwan’s ramps would make the Chinese deplete more of its missile magazines.

    The answer to the cross-strait military balance will not come in the form of more short range tactical fighters sat on ramps within range of China’s massive missile force. As the RAND study conclusively shows, selling Taiwan more capable F-16s does nothing to change the military balance.

    – Greg

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    and wreck its runways before Taiwan was able to launch its fighters
    Engineers? give them a few hours

    All I can say is, a Super Carrier would be really useful for Taiwan atm. Although AEGIS and Pac-3 wouldn't hurt either.

    either way, selling them fighters = $$$

    so, why not?

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    China launching a conventional ballistic missile attack in the numbers needed to take out the Taiwanesse Airforce is somewhat preposterous. It would be a case of having o be a total surprise with no build up (unlikely to happen) or essentially hitting the entire set of islands hard enough that the entire place becomes a useless bomb cratered shell of an island. Going nuclear isn't anymore appealing. China actually invading would win but would take large losses doing so.

    To say that China has the missile force to destroy Taiwan is like saying the Israelis have sufficient force to destroy Hamas. Its technically true but utterly irrelevant due to factors that are not directly involved in calculations of which fighting force would win in a field maneuvers exercise.


    Selling Taiwan the F-16's doesn't hurt the US unless we think that 3rd parties would get their hands on sensitive systems other wise it only helps economically.

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    That RAND study was a joke, we had a thread on it a while back.

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    CSB claimed that there are 1300+ SRBMs/IRBMs pointed at Taiwan right now. Taiwan has about 400 fighter aircraft. The ballistic missiles may be replaced by cruise missiles in the future, which are cheaper and more accurate. Then there's also the possibility of mine warheads, or simply bombing through an airfield every time the engineers bring it back online.

    I mean, I have to defer to your expert opinion but I don't think the idea of disabling all the airfields with massed missile strikes is preposterous or eternally inviable.
    Last edited by Inst; 15 Mar 10, at 21:56.

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    Senior Contributor Stitch's Avatar
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    If the ROC is that worried about a PRC BM attack, it seems to me a few dozen PAC-3 systems would make more sense, rather than more ADF's; this would also counter any follow-on air strikes the PRC would attempt after the attack. It would probably be cheaper, too.

    "Yeah. See, we plan ahead, that way we don't do anything right now. Earl explained it to me." - Tremors, 1990

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    What I've read is that the better way to neutralize missile bombardment is to build hardened aircraft shelters and decoy hardened aircraft shelters. A HAS is only $3m, whereas the Chinese ballistic missiles cost about the same amount. I also don't think the Chinese have bunker penetrating munitions, so they can't do jack about HAS, all they can do is to try to disable the airfields.

    The PAC-3 systems would be overwhelmed by a full thousand ballistic missiles being fired in a single salvo, and cost a lot more than the ballistic missiles they're meant to shoot down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Inst View Post
    CSB claimed that there are 1300+ SRBMs/IRBMs pointed at Taiwan right now. Taiwan has about 400 fighter aircraft. The ballistic missiles may be replaced by cruise missiles in the future, which are cheaper and more accurate. Then there's also the possibility of mine warheads, or simply bombing through an airfield every time the engineers bring it back online.
    At that point you're literally trading ballistic missiles for concrete.

    There's also a lot of concrete to hit once you factor in the highways. Here's a nice thread with pictures of RoCAF aircraft landing and taking off on highways during an exercise.

    Taiwan RoCAF fighters Takeoff/landing on highway!

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    China has the capacity to take out entire Taiwan's AF not in single day , may be a week time .
    The game will be changed if US joins hand with Taiwan , the result will be 3 to 5 months of time not for Taiwan , it is for China.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NJS21 View Post
    China has the capacity to take out entire Taiwan's AF not in single day , may be a week time .
    The game will be changed if US joins hand with Taiwan , the result will be 3 to 5 months of time not for Taiwan , it is for China.
    Can you explain your last sentence again?

    I really don't know what you meant by that.

    I'm not really sure but I don't think the numbers stack up for China. Destroy the Taiwan AF, maybe, but I don't think China can put enough boots on the ground even with a neutral America (highly unlikely).....at least not without months of attrition warfare.....maybe never.

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    I'm assuming the planes would be towed onto the highways after the paths have been cleared by armored bulldozers?

    I reread the Rand article and it sort of sounds like trolling for military spending. The main thesis, however, is not that the Chinese would win the air war, but that they would be able to incapacitate the RoCAF, so that further investment in the RoCAF would be unnecessary.

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    Quote Originally Posted by YellowFever View Post
    Can you explain your last sentence again?

    I really don't know what you meant by that.

    I'm not really sure but I don't think the numbers stack up for China. Destroy the Taiwan AF, maybe, but I don't think China can put enough boots on the ground even with a neutral America (highly unlikely).....at least not without months of attrition warfare.....maybe never.
    China thinks it could capture taiwan any time , by saying the land belong to them .but US will not allow at any cost . China also know if it touches Taiwan , US will go to any extend .

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    Quote Originally Posted by Inst View Post
    I'm assuming the planes would be towed onto the highways after the paths have been cleared by armored bulldozers?
    The kind of mines carried by such warheads are an annoyance to be swept aside by a bulldozer. It won't hurt the runway much.

    Quote Originally Posted by NJS21 View Post
    China thinks it could capture taiwan any time ,
    Actually, no PLA general thinks that. The numbers just isn't there. At best, the Chinese can land 30,000 troops. There are over 400,000 in the RoCA.

    Quote Originally Posted by NJS21 View Post
    by saying the land belong to them .but US will not allow at any cost . China also know if it touches Taiwan , US will go to any extend .
    The 3 Ds - Deter a US response, Deny a US response, Delay a US response. In a worst case scenario, the Chinese hope to delay a US response long enough for the ground action on Taiwan to be decided.
    Chimo

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    ^In your opinion, Colonel, let's just assume there is no US involvement here, does China have enough troop transports and enough superiority in the air to actually invade Taiwan (i.e. without getting slaughtered)?

    And how accurate are those BM's?

    Enough to take out a good portion of the Taiwan's AF on the ground?

    Sorry for the digression. I realize we've gone way past just discussing the AF but this subject fascinates me.

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    Last edited by Officer of Engineers; 16 Mar 10, at 22:24.
    Chimo

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