Thread: China could take out the entire ROC AF on day 1 of air war?

Originally Posted by weaponww

so in your opinon do you think PLA will attack taiwan if taiwness government declare indepedence? I always thought taiwan is core interest for china, and if taiwan really declare indepedence, then it will force china to start a war, no matter the consequence. Since the commy reputation, and its legitimacy is on the line.

But RoC won't declare independence.

Originally Posted by weaponww

so in your opinon do you think PLA will attack taiwan if taiwness government declare indepedence? I always thought taiwan is core interest for china, and if taiwan really declare indepedence, then it will force china to start a war, no matter the consequence. Since the commy reputation, and its legitimacy is on the line.

Worst case scenario, the RoC renounces its claims on the mainland and declares itself an sovergien state entitled to the full benefits of membership in the family of nations then yes the PRC would attack. The CCP has to inorder to keep its legitmacy. They can attack and lose or attack and win so long as they attack. Not attacking would be domestic suicide, they have spent years building Chinese nationalism.

If they do attack and the RoC is resolute then the PRC loses even without the US jumping in. The inabiliy to put troops on the ground will decide it. 1300 missiles simple is not enough to do more than a terror campaign or a short term localized area denial campaign. Heck 13,000 missiles would not be enough. The allies dropped well over 100,000 tons of bombs on Berlin in WWII and the city remained the fucntional center of government. Taipai could absorb every missile the PRC has and still barely be damaged if you compared structures standing to structures destroyed.

The much greater threat if the US does not jump is the PLAN. The RoCN has 26 major surface combatants backed by 4 subs and about 90 other warships. The PLAN has double the number of major surface combatants, 4x the number of smaller warships and 10x the number of subs. The RoCN just isn't strong enough to break that tyoe of a blockade force.

Thanks for the info, Colonel and Z.

Assuming Z is correct in his assumptions (and it's one of the best I've read so far anywhere) and ROC does declare independence, PRC won't have a choice but to attack, if for no other reason than "save face" but Z confirmed my thoughts that the PRC just doesn't have the numbers to be successful and wont that in and of itself be the end of the politburo?

My reasoning is that the Chinese gov't has been telling it's people that their military hardware is on par with the western stuff and their commanders are second to none
but to lose militarily (nevermind politically) would shatter the disilluionment the typical people on the street have.

Most Chinese I've talked to seem to believe this war would be over in a couple of weeks with Taiwan firmly in PRC's hands.

Originally Posted by YellowFever

Thanks for the info, Colonel and Z.

Assuming Z is correct in his assumptions (and it's one of the best I've read so far anywhere) and ROC does declare independence, PRC won't have a choice but to attack, if for no other reason than "save face" but Z confirmed my thoughts that the PRC just doesn't have the numbers to be successful and wont that in and of itself be the end of the politburo?

My reasoning is that the Chinese gov't has been telling it's people that their military hardware is on par with the western stuff and their commanders are second to none
but to lose militarily (nevermind politically) would shatter the disilluionment the typical people on the street have.

Most Chinese I've talked to seem to believe this war would be over in a couple of weeks with Taiwan firmly in PRC's hands.

I think the CCP can survive being beat by the US. The CCP can point to many more nucelar attack subs, the threat to China's global trade, Nimitz class carriers, B-2/F-22 stealth aircraft, Ohio class SSGN..... a multitide of technical reasons that China didn't really fail, it did better than anyone else could have. This is reneforced if the Chinese can sink a surface ship or sub. The US hasn't lost a warship to enemy action other than by boarding since WWII.

Take small achievements and spin them into big victories. America gets painted as the global hegeon keeping the Middle Kingdom from its roighful place. Just wiat says the CCP, your technological edge won't last forever and then.... BAM! This type of an argument shifts the blame for the failure and gives the nationalist the promsie of a day of reckoning for American perfidy.

Now if the US doesn't jump in and the PRC still loses then that might be a different story. It ends up with an independent Taiwan and a successful and direct chalenge to the CCP. However even losing to the RoC is better than never fighting at all. You can spin any defeat, you can't spin a refusal to act after decades of tough talk.

Taiwan would loose a couple of the little islands in the straights that have changed hands a couple of times in the years since the 40's.China however simply can't mass and land enough force while keeping their forces everywhere else around their country. They have to keep fairly decent force along the North Korean and Vietnamese borders They still aren't really friendly with Russia along that one either, Tibet while not in the state of unrest that it was 20 years ago still isn't exactly peaceful. While China won't have to keep lots of front line forces in those areas they do have to remain credible. A huge amount of china's airforce is second and third line forces that unless they have strong air superiority will be shot down in droves. The Idea of China credibly taking out more than a third of Taiwan's airforce in a first strike even an unopposed first strike is unlikely. China will win a war of attrition eventually but would likely cripple her armed services for years doing so and its unlikely that China considering her relations with her neighbors can afford to do so.

If Republic of China decides to give up mainland claims and declare the island its own separate nation PRC declares war takes a couple of the channel island and launches some air strikes and missiles at Taiwan to save face and declare victory its fairly halfhearted and a large portion of those missile strikes won't be directed at Taiwan's military targets but at its semiconductor industry to help china try to industrially beggared Taiwan over the next few years so that Taiwan comes to china and china holds the keys to power.

maxor,

A huge amount of china's airforce is second and third line forces that unless they have strong air superiority will be shot down in droves.

the chinese aren't counting on air superiority-- they are at best aiming for air neutrality. the PLAAF and PLAN in this scenario is just largely anti-access while the PLA goes in as the killing force.

declare the island its own separate nation PRC declares war takes a couple of the channel island and launches some air strikes and missiles at Taiwan to save face and declare victory its fairly halfhearted and a large portion of those missile strikes won't be directed at Taiwan's military targets but at its semiconductor industry to help china try to industrially beggared Taiwan over the next few years so that Taiwan comes to china and china holds the keys to power.

depending on the timeline of when this occurs, the PLAN would most likely institute a blockade; if the taiwanese are not deterred, seize an island; then, if not, an attempted invasion.

The PLA doesn't under air neutrality have the shipping to get enough boots on the ground. Its either air superiority, and use a fair amount of commercial shipping impressed, or take losses in the millions of troops trying to land them 30 and 40 thousand at a time then conquer a mountainous island country in the face of heavily armed resistance.

A blockade of Taiwan would meet with huge international outcry, and both Japan and South Korea would be at the forefront of it. Along with Western Europe and the US. You don't have the worlds 20th largest GDP, with 70% of that being electronics exported mostly to first world nations and get blockaded without outcry.


Taiwan is also a large importer of food China might have been able to starve 20 million of their own people under Mao, but blockading Taiwan to do the same now isn't going to happen either. China's best bet to get Taiwan under its control isn't military its political and economic. Get into a position to compete broadly in economics then offer Taiwan a deal where they are their own political sub country like Hong Kong but larger.

As I under stand it, I think Beijing will try to undermine the legitimacy of any independence declaring government in Taipei through a combination of blockades (more likely stop and searches, can't see the PLAN having the operational tempo to shut off the entire island), incursions by citizen activists and general harassment, hoping to pressure Taipei into firing the first shot (like the 2008 South Ossetian Georgian war).

Originally Posted by astralis

the chinese aren't counting on air superiority-- they are at best aiming for air neutrality. the PLAAF and PLAN in this scenario is just largely anti-access while the PLA goes in as the killing force.

With what? Even after all six type 71's are built the Chinese won't be able to land enough troops. All of the PLAN's assets combined can only land about a single small division. The US can move more and heavier assets than the Chinese can.

Originally Posted by zraver

With what? Even after all six type 71's are built the Chinese won't be able to land enough troops. All of the PLAN's assets combined can only land about a single small division. The US can move more and heavier assets than the Chinese can.

Assuming that six Type 71s will be built. We've only seen one example for quite a while.

Originally Posted by Skywatcher

Assuming that six Type 71s will be built. We've only seen one example for quite a while.

very true, which is why I stand by my statement that the PRC isn't really pursuing a capable landing capacity. Also with the ease of use and performance of modern light AshM and modern landing force that wants to establish an credible beachhead needs an over the horizon landing capability.