chankya

A quick question. I don't know if it has been asked before, so if it has please let me know.

In the event of a Chinese attack across the Taiwan straits, I doubt if US ground forces would get involved. That leaves air and possibly naval power. Given that a large percentage of US assets are engaged in the middle east, can the US get forces in the area in sufficient numbers and early enough to prevent Taiwan from being overrun?

I remember reading somewhere that the F-22s would most likely be used. If they (Or come to think of it, any aircraft at all other than the naval aviation assets) are to be used in an air superiority rather than a strike role I assume they would need to be based somewhere close by. Japan or maybe Taiwan itself. Would Japan let itself get drawn into the conflict? Would anyone else?

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gunnut

What makes you think China can even land enough troops on Taiwan?

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Jimmy

The US's deployments to the desert are primarily ground forces. The Air Force and Navy have PLENTY of assets around the rest of the world, especially air-to-air. Iraq didnt even launch a fighter when we invaded, so there isnt much of an air threat there.

I want to preface this by saying I have no idea what the US plans for such a thing would be, but if I were doing the planning stealth attacks or even a bunch of cruise missiles to take out the high-threat SAMs, then more conventional assets to mop up.

Grim Reaper

If by some miracle the Chinese get enough troops and equipment on that Island in the first wave, they'd be cut off after by the USN and all hope of reinforcements. Anything in Taiwan would trapped...with the Taiwanese military being blostered with supplies to counter them. It would not be such a good day for the commies says I.

Jimmy

I actually prefer random threads (havent seen one here) where people start talking about an all-out war between the US and China...often the scenario offered is that China invades the US mainland.

That scenario is so much fun to destroy.

Officer of Engineers

There was this nut over at CMF about 10 years ago who proposed the PLA invade North America through the Bering Straits. The freaking idiot even proposed that Canadians understand the PLA's position and step aside. Flat out told him that the CF would be kicking PLA butt up and down the coast line - actually rescuing those lucky enough not to end up as fishfood or bear feed.

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Chimo

-{SpoonmaN}-

Apparently their new strategy is not to land and take control of the entire island, but to take small beach and airheads around key infrastructure to 'paralyze' the country. I guess they assume the ROCA will just give it up rather than engage in what would likely be an all too easy series of counter-attacks, can't for the life of me figure out why.
I think the PLA should just focus on getting their training and individual equipment right, and then working their way up the ladder to the most expensive things: an Expeditionary Air Force and a Green water Navy.

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tphuang

actually, that has always been their strategy. destroying the power stations, airbases, shipyards, communication network and such.

Officer of Engineers

We actually don't know what the Chinese strategy is. They've never stated it.

Zeng

Because it will never happen.

Why can't more people wish peace instead of war?

How many China invading Taiwan threads do we need on this forum?

http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/his...awan-07-a.html

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Jimmy

Technically, but they're relatively intelligent. They've certainly been watching how the US cripples a country/military at least since Desert Storm. If we've got a rough idea of their system capabilities and their training, its certainly possible to get an idea of how they'd employ. If we can get intel on some of their assumptions (for example, if they really thought there would be little organized resistance), then that would help immensely.

We may not know, but we've probably got an idea.

Edit: I was replying to the good OoE, hence the weird start to the post.

astralis

col yu,

god, i remember that. CMF's greatest moment, that.

on a more serious note, however, do you see anything in the balance (discounting for a second the possibility of US intervention) significantly changing in the next 15-20 years?

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Officer of Engineers

Jimmy,

I'm a moderator at the China-Defence.com forum, an English based academic PLA watcher forum, and we have been over the Taiwan scenario to death. The core problem with all this is that we have a hell of a time trying to fit Chinese doctrines into the Taiwan scenario.

From what we know of Chinese doctrine, the core of their military thinking (described in the Chinese People's Liberation Army Handbook) has always been the final battle of annihilation. The Diem Bien Phus. Only problem is that we can't figure out how they're going to get one.

There are 3 corps on Taiwan. The PLA at best can kill one corps. And here we get the "And a Miracle Happens here" that Taiwan surrenders.

We thought we had a good grasp on it a couple years ago when the Chinese went extremely heavy in the War Zone Campaign (their limited version of FM 3.0) but since the Iraq War, we have seen them backing away from WZC.

Looking at at their exercises, it seems really not geared for Taiwan. They have had a division against an entrenched battalion, hardly the kind of numeric contests that would be envisioned in Taiwan.

Officer of Engineers

Because it is still a tenet in the CCP manifesto and the PLA is tasked with taking back Taiwan with force. Regardless if the CCP decides to use force or not, the PLA generals have a job to do and that is to prepare to take back Taiwan.

I cannot see past 10 years. Within the next 10 years, no. Simply because the capital purchase budgets have already been allocated. I can say with certainty that we will not see an operational carrier nor 5 SSBN force.

At the start of their next procurement cycle, however, is a complete mystery to me. I'm not sure how comfortable they would be or how many lessons would be learned for them to begin expansion.

Case in point is the Light Mechanized Regiment experiment. Just looking at the exercises, I can tell they're making mistakes. Mistakes that they should not have been making in the 1st place. ATVs instead of jeeps and trucks is just asking for a disaster.

tphuang

I remember reading in this piece that since they don't have the assets or the amphibious experience against the much large ROCA, PLA's next option would be to make life as difficult as it can for the "luxuriously living Taiwanese" if you will by crippling the economy, taking away electric power and so forth.