rickusn

http://www.afa.org/magazine/dec2006/1206watch.asp

F-22 Multiyear Approved; Countdown Begins
Congress in October approved the Air Force’s bid to buy the F-22 Raptor under a multiyear procurement contract, guaranteeing the production of the last 60 airplanes now on order but also starting the countdown to the closure of the F-22 production line.

The approval for the MYP came when President Bush signed the 2007 defense authorization bill and gave the go-ahead for Lockheed Martin to produce 20 F-22s per year in 2007, 2008, and 2009. That buy will bring the F-22 buy up to 183 aircraft—the most allowed under last year’s Quadrennial Defense Review findings. (See “Washington Watch: Accommodating the QDR,” February, p. 14.)

The Air Force, however, has never fully accepted the 183 number, consistently disagreeing politely with Pentagon leadership that the service needs 381 Raptors to meet all its obligations. In the QDR, compromise language gave the Air Force permission to keep buying F-22s if there are delays or setbacks in production of the F-35. The Air Force insisted that it have a warm stealth fighter production line—what it calls a “fifth generation” manufacturing capability.

Assuming that the F-35 remains on track, though, the last F-22s, in Lot 9, will be delivered in December 2011. The long-lead parts suppliers for the aircraft, however, will start “turning off” in 2007 or 2008, according to Larry Lawson, Lockheed Martin’s executive vice president and general manager of the F-22 program.

Lawson, in a September interview with Air Force Magazine, said the most problematic manufacturing item for the F-22 is titanium, which has been in artificially short supply recently as Russia has reduced its output. He believes the market will correct by adding production capacity, “but you really have a ‘hard stop’ right after that, ... and I really have to go turn off the supply base” in about 2007-08, he said.

The situation could prompt a revisit of the horse trading seen this September, when Congress, in the 11th hour, voted to add 10 C-17s to the Air Force’s budget request, extending the production line nearly a year, until 2009. The extension was seen, among other things, as a way to give Boeing time to line up additional international customers for the airlifter.

However, the F-22 will not, apparently, get a lifeline in the form of export orders. Under the Obey Amendment, the F-22 may not be marketed overseas. Rep. David R. Obey (D-Wis.), author of the language, said it makes little sense to sell the Air Force’s top technology to foreign countries if there is a chance the US could someday come up against it in battle.

Obey stands to become the chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, which oversees defense funding, as the Democrats won the House in the November elections.

In its language approving the F-22 multiyear deal, the House-Senate authorization conference encouraged the Air Force to “continue to seek improved efficiencies in this program.”

The Air Force had testified that the MYP, by giving contractors assurances of the number to be built, could save up to $500 million on the F-22 program. However, Lockheed Martin’s Marietta, Ga., facility has been cranking out two per month, and a reduction of four airplanes a year will not lower overhead costs. The F-22 factory was designed to accommodate as many as 36 Raptors a year. The original, “most efficient” rate of production was 48 per year, before both senior Pentagon leaders and Congress reduced the program.

“Going from building 24 a year to 20 ... will be tough, but we’ll make that adjustment,” Lawson said. “Obviously, there isn’t a capacity issue.”

In exercises in Alaska this summer, a squadron of F-22s racked up an air-to-air combat record of 241-to-two against F-15s, F-16s, and F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. Other Raptors demonstrated bull’s-eye hits on some 20 targets at Hill AFB, Utah, dropping satellite guided Joint Direct Attack Munition bombs from 50,000 feet and at speeds in excess of Mach 1.5.

Lawson said, “I don’t get a lot of questions anymore about how effective the [F-22] is. ... The demonstrated effectiveness in multiple deployments gives you a strong feeling that this airplane can go to war.”

Anon

It would be one of THE DUMBEST decisions in the history of manned flight if the US let's the Raptor line close after the programed 180 or so aircraft.

Absolute idiocy.

Which means it is almost guaranteed to happen....

omon

don't feel so bad. i'm almost positive that somewhere in the desert underground there are new planes that make f22 look like cesna next to them. f117 was 10 years old when we first learned of its excistanse,and it was 10 years ago(or more).

PubFather

How many Raptors will actually be deployed in active squadrons? I know a large (worryingly large) number of UK Typhoons will be held "in reserve" either for training/attrition replacements.

10 squadrons of 12??

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Jimmy

The 43rd has 23, which leaves 160 for everyone else. I know they wanted 10 squadrons (excluding 43 FS), so they could have 2 aligned with each AEF, but that may have changed. With 10 squadrons in the combat air forces, that's only 16 jets per. That sucks.

highsea

Hell, it's not really even 16- we need additional frames for attrition reserves, training, rotations for depot maintenance, backups, testing, etc.

At 183, it's probably closer to 12 frames per AEF available at any given time. The 381 number allowed for 24 per AEF with 141 spares.

Elmendorf will get 36 frames, 2 active squadrons and one reserve. So no spares.

And at 20/year rate, that's about as slow as we can build them. The original plan was for 90/year in full rate production.

If the Congress doesn't back a follow-on order by late 2007, the long-lead supply line will dry up. Somehow I don't see the Democrat Congress jumping up and supporting the Raptor.

Anyone know Robert Gate's opinion on the Raptor? Without backing from the OSD, there's not much hope of getting more than the 183 frames before things start shutting down. Then when we have to restart production, lol. $130 Million will look like a bargain...

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rickusn

Its programmed to be seven squadrons with 18 aircraft each.

But thats not sustainable over the long-term with only a 183 aircraft buy.

To sustain seven squadrons with 18 aircraft each over 20 years requires a procurement mininmum of 202 aircraft.

The F-15 by comparison would have required 227 aircraft procured to sustain a like # of squadrons at 18 aircraft each if not more.

So heres the new news not surprising given the above:

http://www.afa.org/

Another Year’s Worth?: The Air Force plans to ask for 20 more F-22A Raptors, extending the shut down of the production line from 2011 to 2012, reports the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Kenneth Miller, the Air Force Secretary’s special assistant for acquisition governance and transparency, told the Star-Telegram that the request would be in the Fiscal 2008 budget. If approved that would raise the total buy—currently capped at 183—to 203. That is still shy of the 381 Raptors the Air Force says it should have to cover its 10 Air and Space Expeditionary Forces and have enough for training, testing, etc.


BTW the 381 # is derived by 10 squadrons at 24 aircraft each.

Then you take 240 x .6 for 144. 240 +144 =384.

Very close. No.?

The legacy multiplier was .8 or higher.

At one time not long ago the USN used .95 as the multiplier.

And by the way the USN has rejected the .6 multiplier preferring the .8 officially.

But for practical purposes are using a .85 multiplier.

Garry

How fast the procurement of spareparts for F-22 line could be revived? How fast is to revive production line once it was shut down? What are there any conservation options?

Looking foward for your answers, guesses and estimates!