Jet fighter costs set to skyrocket

**~~Insomniac~~** · 17 Apr 06,, 00:24

http://www.theage.com.au/news/nation...521546953.html

A "SIGNIFICANT cost blow-out" is expected to hit Australia's multibillion-dollar plans to buy 100 Joint Strike Fighters from the US.

Already estimated to cost $16 billion, up from $12 billion when the deal was announced in 2002, the jets could cost more than $18 billion.

Australian Flight Test Services chief executive Peter Goon, whose Adelaide-based company provides a range of military flight test and aerospace engineering services, said his latest analysis predicted another "significant cost blow-out".

"The total cost of the JSF project has already increased significantly, with the US General Accounting Office revising the cost upwards this year, from $US256 billion ($A351 billion) to $US276 billion," Mr Goon said.

"Our estimates indicate that another very significant cost increase will be announced within the next three to five weeks."

A spokesman for JSF maker Lockheed Martin, Andrew Sloan, said it was likely further cost estimates would be announced.

"At this stage, the figures are being reviewed," Mr Sloan said. "But it is very likely that there are going to be further cost increases as we move further into the program.

"We currently estimate the planes will cost around $100 million each, but then you have servicing, maintenance, training and other costs on top of that — which you can usually estimate to double the cost of the plane — which then brings you up to around the $18 billion to $20 billion mark for Australia."

Australia has until the end of the year to decide whether to go ahead with the purchase. Six other countries, including Italy, Britain, Canada and the Netherlands, are also considering the jet.

The JSF is intended to replace Australia's 33 F-111s and 70 F/A-18s by 2012, but this is expected to be delayed until about 2015. The Government has committed $300 million to its design and development.

"Australia's air superiority has been guaranteed in the region for the last 30 years because of the F-111s and we are taking an enormous risk by purchasing a plane which is untested, we don't know how much it will cost, and we don't know when it will be delivered," Mr Goon said.

He urged the Department of Defence to maintain the F-111 fleet and buy the more expensive F-22 Raptor, already in production.

But Australian National University defence expert Alan Stephens said the lobby against the JSF was "quite wrong".

"We cannot continually look for quick fixes, and stretching the life of F-111s is exactly that," Dr Stephens said.

"The JSF is quite simply the best package available to suit our defence needs into the future and anyone who says otherwise really doesn't know what they are talking about.

"Once this plane is delivered, we are going to be very, very pleased with this purchase."

A spokesman for Defence Minister Brendan Nelson said the "Government is still committed to negotiations to buy the JSF".

FIGHTER FACTSTHE Joint Strike Fighter, the F-35, is a fifth-generation jet fighter prized for its advanced stealth and sensor technologies.

It has ground and air-attack capabilities.

There are plans for the jet fighter to replace Australia's current fleet of F-111s and F/A-18s. Australia is scheduled to buy 100 of the high-tech planes, now valued at $100 million each.

Total cost to Australia, including spare parts, training and servicing, is currently $16 billion. The jets were planned to be delivered by 2012, but are now more likely to arrive by 2015.

Looks like we'll be getting less F-22's and F-35's than we thought.

**-{SpoonmaN}-** · 17 Apr 06,, 09:18

There is NO way we could afford the Raptor. And the F-111s are so old that keeping them in service is getting beyond the joke. I guess we'll have to take care in investing so much cash into the JSF ($300 million isn't such a big deal), we'll have to wait and see about the price of the aircraft, and how much it might blowout (and it looks like it will). Right now I understand we've squeezed LockMart into a deal for $45 million per A/C, which is pretty reasonable, just have to see whether they can stick to it.

**TopHatter** · 17 Apr 06,, 12:56

"Australia's air superiority has been guaranteed in the region for the last 30 years because of the F-111s..."

Can somebody explain to me how F-111s can guarantee air superiority?

**Wraith601** · 17 Apr 06,, 15:18

Originally Posted by TopHatter

Can somebody explain to me how F-111s can guarantee air superiority?

It is a Fighter-Bomber after all.

I guess you can hit airfields with though.

**TopHatter** · 17 Apr 06,, 15:56

Originally Posted by Wraith601

It is a Fighter-Bomber after all.

I guess you can hit airfields with though.

The "fighter" in fighter-bomber doesn't always translate to "air-to-air fighter".

Nomenclature is so muddled these days anyway.

Is the A-10 a "strike fighter"? A "fighter-bomber"? A "ground-attack" aircraft?

Or all of the above?

Can the A-10 engage other aircraft? You bet. With Sidewinders and that big-pig of a gun. Choppers especially have a way of resembling Swiss Cheese after a Hog points it's nose their way.

Would I use to it gain air superiority? No.

Can and do the Oz Varks carry and effectively use AAMs? I don't believe so.

Like I said: Nomenclature. This guy wanted to use a cool sounding term. Unfortunately, he seems to be talking out of his south end.

**indianguy4u** · 17 Apr 06,, 16:08

"We currently estimate the planes will cost around $100 million each, but then you have servicing, maintenance, training and other costs on top of that — which you can usually estimate to double the cost of the plane — which then brings you up to around the $18 billion to $20 billion mark for Australia."

How can LM jack up JSF price from 45M USD to 100M+ USD?

**~~glow~~** · 17 Apr 06,, 16:28

Do F-18s or what not compete witht he Mig 25s? F-22 is beautiful but those are some pretty costly planes. Whats the next best this a little less?

**gunnut** · 17 Apr 06,, 18:51

Originally Posted by indianguy4u

How can LM jack up JSF price from 45M USD to 100M+ USD?

They knew they needed to quote a low figure to win the contract. They did. And they won.

Then they'll progressively up the figure to its true cost. Add some cost overruns and the fly-away cost can go up easily from $35 million to $70 million.

**highsea** · 17 Apr 06,, 18:53

Originally Posted by indianguy4u

How can LM jack up JSF price from 45M USD to 100M+ USD?

They didn't. You have to differentiate between US and Aus dollars, and understand that LM's price commitment is in USD (probably 1998 or 2000 dollars).

Convert that to Australian dollars, and adjust for the increase between 2000 and 2012 (when the first Aus F-35's would be coming along), and you get $AD 100 Mil (or thereabouts).

It's academic, because the AC is still in development, Australia has not placed any orders, and the production quantity is yet to be determined.

**gunnut** · 17 Apr 06,, 18:55

Originally Posted by glow

Do F-18s or what not compete witht he Mig 25s? F-22 is beautiful but those are some pretty costly planes. Whats the next best this a little less?

F-18 is a multi role fighter. Mig 25 is a interceptor/missile carrier. They don't quite do the same jobs.

F-35 would be the next best thing to F-22. It's far cheaper. A huge market, which will ensure the production line to remain open for a long time, further decrease the cost. A long life will also bring about steady upgrades in the next 30 years to keep it competitive.

I really think the JSF will be the next "cheap" fighter for the western world for the forseeable future. It should remain competitive for 30 years, possibly 50 years.

**highsea** · 17 Apr 06,, 18:59

Originally Posted by glow

Do F-18s or what not compete witht he Mig 25s? F-22 is beautiful but those are some pretty costly planes. Whats the next best this a little less?

MiG-25's are not in the equation.

One option for Oz would be to lease 20-30 Strike Eagles or Super Hornets to fill in the gap when the F-111 goes away. These AC could be operated until the F-35 fleet was filled out, and then returned to Boeing at the end of the lease.

**Bill** · 17 Apr 06,, 23:00

F-15SG.

Available in the here and now for 1/2 half the price but delivering nearly double the capability(at the cost of stealth).

**-{SpoonmaN}-** · 17 Apr 06,, 23:08

I think we initially turned down the Strike Eagle because it didn't have stealth and at the time was looking to be more expensive than the JSF, as well as the fact that the MoD was sceptical about using an aircraft based on a frame that was over 30 years old at the time. To me it seems logical to give the JSF some more time and if it becomes clear that it won't fulfill our needs at it's price THEN we should start thinking about something along the lines of the Strike Eagle to supplement it.

**gunnut** · 17 Apr 06,, 23:31

How much longer can F-15SG remain competitive? Can it serve the next 30 years? If so, how many years can F-35 and its variants remain competitive? 50 years?

I just think if one goes with the F-15SG option then this same problem will return in 15 years. If one goes with the F-35, it may not be delivered for another 10 years, but it'll remain in service for the 30 years after that.

**highsea** · 17 Apr 06,, 23:44

Originally Posted by gunnut

...I just think if one goes with the F-15SG option then this same problem will return in 15 years. If one goes with the F-35, it may not be delivered for another 10 years, but it'll remain in service for the 30 years after that.

That's exactly why they are not looking seriously at an F-15 variant. The St. Louis line will be shutting down in a few years, just about the time that the F-111's are retiring. You don't want to induct a new AC at the same time as it's going out of production! Superbugs would be a better choice based on that criteria, but performance is a little lackluster for the role.

F-35's and Raptors are the solution, $$$ is the problem, lol.

Since we know they aren't going to be springing for a bunch of Raptors any time soon, then leasing 20-30 new Dark Grays seems the obvious way to go to me. Take the money you would spend on extending the F-111 service life, 1/2 of the money on the HUG center barrel replacements, and apply all of that money to lease payments for a much more capable platform. Then, in 2020 or so, after the new F-35's are all up to speed, give the F-15's back to Boeing- who knows, by then Raptors might not be quite so pricey...