Syrian Air Defenses down Turkish F-4

**TTL** · 25 Jun 12,, 07:37

There are claims that Syria also shot at a rescue plane.

POLITICS - Turkish rescue plane also attacked by Syria

**Doktor** · 25 Jun 12,, 08:35

What are the chances of finding the pilots alive?

**Bigfella** · 25 Jun 12,, 12:35

How long do we think until the first conspiracy theories? - 'This was a set up by NATO to give grounds for justification' or something similar. Clock is ticking.

**tankie** · 25 Jun 12,, 13:32

Deffo NATO at fault , or , ang on ,,ahh yes ,,gorrit , it was the yanks , with the jewboys onboard

On a serious note Dok , the pilots chances are about 0 imo

**Parihaka** · 25 Jun 12,, 14:32

Originally Posted by Bigfella

How long do we think until the first conspiracy theories? - 'This was a set up by NATO to give grounds for justification' or something similar. Clock is ticking.

If so the theories will be purely from the west. The whole region's itching for a shit-fight and doesn't need our gentle proddings as an excuse.

**rj1** · 25 Jun 12,, 15:54

Originally Posted by Doktor

What are the chances of finding the pilots alive?

they've been curiously ignored

**Doktor** · 25 Jun 12,, 16:22

I wonder why.

They found the plane almost a mile bellow the sea level, but can't find two lost souls on the surface.

I feel sorry for the pilots and those close to them.

**rj1** · 25 Jun 12,, 18:05

Doktor, I find your signature befitting the situation.

"To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic."

**ace16807** · 25 Jun 12,, 23:48

To clarify, in a press conference today, a spokesperson of the Syrian FM claimed that the plane was shot down over Syrian territorial waters by AAA (Anti-aircraft machine gun with a maximum range of 2.5km, probably a zu-23, with no radar. As such, Syria is setting itself up to claim it was technically impossible for the plane to have been over international waters). Apparently RoE is stated as basically "shoot first, ask questions later". The spokesperson claimed that had the plane been Syrian (not that they'd be able to ID it anyways besides visually) and did not identify itself, they would have shot it down anyways. They're taking a more firm stance in wanting to continue neighborly relations with Turkey but asserting their right to defend sacred sovereignty.

Re pilots, their boots were found (don't know where) but there was no sign of parachutes.

I'll try to find the link when I can.

**cyppok** · 26 Jun 12,, 07:52

Technically if its their airspace its their airspace...

But anyhow.
Turkey turns to NATO after Syria downs jet | Reuters

Turkey is to demand backing from its NATO allies on Tuesday at a special meeting called after Syrian troops shot down a Turkish warplane last week in an incident Damascus said was self-defense but which Ankara branded an "act of aggression".

If it was in Syrian airspace then it can't be an act of aggression. But irrelevant for the argument.

Place your bets everyone for a very very very big war game.
We have 6 players, Euro, Iran, USA, Turkey, Russia, China. Whose interests will win out in the end? You have to think very long term even post regime change if that happens and after the civil war etc...

I sorta have the same leaning as Bigfella that it was a justification play to put Syria in play.

**Bigfella** · 26 Jun 12,, 09:27

Originally Posted by cyppok

I sorta have the same leaning as Bigfella that it was a justification play to put Syria in play.

Just to be clear, I don't think that. I was pointing out that people would be claiming that in no time flat. Looks like I was right.

**cyppok** · 26 Jun 12,, 10:29

Originally Posted by Bigfella

Just to be clear, I don't think that. I was pointing out that people would be claiming that in no time flat. Looks like I was right.

I'll go further I think all these discussions and rebel support don't matter.

The only thing that matters is if there is an intervention from the outside AND outcomes post peace (long long after).

People seem to think that once you have Syrian Army or some such group in charge they don't go on a rampage clearing out anyone in contention of political power to completely dominate the scene and then reposition societal strata based on their connections/tribes/etc...
This is even overlooking the civil war and the post control flip from religious to ethinic independence vis a vis pushing out any 'infeldel' be the religious or ethnic (Arab vis Turk). The ensuing clusterf#@k and other niceties, like oil prices going up due to pipelines terminating on the Syrian coast not shipping, etc... and so on.

P.S. I can see the intervention beginning but the trigger for other players to come to table and bet on their horse is very much there... This is very much one of those careful what you wish for things.

One question I have is thus:

What IF an intervention redraws the map from Southern Turkey to the Basrah Gulf, are the players prepared to live with those consequences post facto once things restabilize decades hence?...

**Bigfella** · 26 Jun 12,, 11:14

Originally Posted by cyppok

I'll go further I think all these discussions and rebel support don't matter.

The only thing that matters is if there is an intervention from the outside AND outcomes post peace (long long after).

People seem to think that once you have Syrian Army or some such group in charge they don't go on a rampage clearing out anyone in contention of political power to completely dominate the scene and then reposition societal strata based on their connections/tribes/etc...
This is even overlooking the civil war and the post control flip from religious to ethinic independence vis a vis pushing out any 'infeldel' be the religious or ethnic (Arab vis Turk). The ensuing clusterf#@k and other niceties, like oil prices going up due to pipelines terminating on the Syrian coast not shipping, etc... and so on.

P.S. I can see the intervention beginning but the trigger for other players to come to table and bet on their horse is very much there... This is very much one of those careful what you wish for things.

One question I have is thus:

What IF an intervention redraws the map from Southern Turkey to the Basrah Gulf, are the players prepared to live with those consequences post facto once things restabilize decades hence?...

I have no idea what this has to do with my point about people seeing some conspiracy here. Just to be clear, I think someone - probably a pilot or navigator - screwed up & a jumpy Syrian AAA battery nailed them. Nuthin' complex.

As for all the tangents you are wandering off in, I have never been convinced (or even a little bit persuaded) that you will see the boots of a foregin army on the ground in Syria anytime soon. I also have serious doubts about other forms of intervention. The latter might change if the Army genuinely splits & there is a full scale civil war within the power structure, but even that is a long way from certain. The real question is who wants to die to change the Syrian govt. & how many bodies are they prepared to drop? I don't see anyone in NATO being prepared to do anything that direct. Perhaps if the entire place falls apart there might be a 'safe haven' created somewhere, but all of this is a ways off & a long way from likely. I think this is all going to be left to Syrians to work out. The Turks might decide to get serious about arming some rebel faction or other. A sudden influx of anti-tank missiles might make life interesting.

As for redrawing maps - stop smoking whatever you are smoking. map redrawing is not exactly in fashion.The Kurds don't have their state, none of Syria's minorities are getting their either. Time for that passed before most people on this board were born.

**Doktor** · 26 Jun 12,, 11:17

Originally Posted by Bigfella

As for redrawing maps - stop smoking whatever you are smoking. map redrawing is not exactly in fashion.The Kurds don't have their state, none of Syria's minorities are getting their either. Time for that passed before most people on this board were born.

Wanna explain that to the Kosovars?

**Bigfella** · 26 Jun 12,, 11:51

Originally Posted by Doktor

Wanna explain that to the Kosovars?

You see a rerun here? Still not an awful lot of map re-drawing going on in the world. Took decades in Sudan. Took the Kosovars a decade. Not much taste for it in the ME - too many potential faultlines & historical squareups. Pretty much the only thing Syria, Iraq, Turkey & Iran agree on is no Kurdish state - so tough shite for Syrian Kurds. The only other minority on Syria capable of a state are Alawites, and I wouldn't be putting money on that either. The Kosoavars had NATO to back them up with direct intervention & the threat of more, who's going to back up an Alawite state in the same way? Russia? Iran?

There is a genuine distaste for map redrawing, especially in volatile regions. Just don't see anyone being keen on it here.