Thread: Iraqis: Life is getting better; only 27% say there is a civil war

In Turkey elections are between many parties; it is not between two of them. Before election most parties show their opinion polls which shows their own party number one. So at the same time there are many number one parties according to polls. Polls are good instruments to lie. Most probably they even can't get close to many iraqis. I have some doubts about their sampling.

Posted by Neyzen:

Polls are good instruments to lie. Most probably they even can't get close to many iraqis. I have some doubts about their sampling.

Of course it is. But why would an anti-Iraq War media lie? A media that does its best to discredit the Iraq war would sooner not report this poll than lie about it. Sorry, but your reasoning, thoug valid, does not necessarily float in this scenario-in my opinion. (gotta add that last part, or people will descend upon me like vultures)

Originally Posted by ExNavyAmerican

Posted by Neyzen:

Of course it is. But why would an anti-Iraq War media lie? A media that does its best to discredit the Iraq war would sooner not report this poll than lie about it. Sorry, but your reasoning, thoug valid, does not necessarily float in this scenario-in my opinion. (gotta add that last part, or people will descend upon me like vultures)

You do have a great sense of humour!

Yes .... Mr ExNavy is quite a diplomatic Military Professional

Posted by Ray-

You do have a great sense of humour!

Posted by xerxes-

Yes .... Mr ExNavy is quite a diplomatic Military Professional

I try.

Here is what an Iraqi, who has been there and done that and is a student in the Comlumbia Graduate School of Journalism has to say.

Casualty of the War

By Ayub Nuri
Monday, March 19, 2007; Page A15

A few weeks before the war in Iraq began in 2003, I was overtaken by fear. I did not fear the war but that George W. Bush might change his mind about overthrowing the Iraqi regime. I was sad to see antiwar protesters in the streets of Washington and London. "What do they know of our sufferings?" I said.

As an Iraqi, I had lived my life under bombardment. Conflict cost me my family and my childhood: I lost my grandmother and my right knee to rocket shrapnel when I was 4. But I saw salvation in this war.

Bush's 48-hour deadline for Saddam Hussein to leave the country ended my fears. It meant war was imminent. I was staying at a house just two miles from one of the front lines when I woke one morning to find that the trigger had been pulled during the night.

During previous wars, I had hidden in basements with my family, but I would witness this conflict as a journalist. I entered cities as they fell. I saw hungry and barefooted Iraqi soldiers walking on roadsides. They had thrown away their weapons and uniforms. In Kirkuk, people were dancing in the streets, waving banners that read "Thanks, Mr. Bush." I saw tears of joy in their eyes.

In Tikrit, Hussein's hometown, the emotions were different. I saw several young men at the city gates. They were angry and resentful of the Americans. "Saddam is still our leader," they said. They vowed to take up arms quickly and fight the Americans.

When I first saw American troops in Tikrit, I was amazed at how well equipped they were. Their guns, their tidy uniforms and their tanks spoke of a powerful army. Only a few days earlier, I had given a pair of sandals to a barefoot Iraqi soldier who had deserted his camp under heavy bombardment. When I saw the American soldiers, I realized that there was no comparison between these two forces.

I walked to the palaces by the side of the Tigris River, and I was stunned by the expensive marble and furniture. It was hard to say if this was a dream or reality. I could never have imagined that I would see the inside of one of Hussein's palaces. In one room, I picked up two of his ashtrays as souvenirs, but a young American soldier at the gate wouldn't let me pass through with them. Then he used an expression I had never heard before: "See no evil, speak no evil." He pointed to another gate a few feet behind him, through which I got away with my ashtrays.

I arrived in Baghdad late one evening. It was dark, and the streets were empty. None of the street lamps were working, and there were no signs of life. It was depressing to set foot in Baghdad for the first time and find it a ghost town.

From there I went to Hilla, a city south of Baghdad. I saw hundreds of men and women digging up the mass graves where their loved ones had for years been buried by Hussein's regime. It was a sorrowful reunion with all the bones. But the people smiled because the regime that dug the graves was no more.

Everyone had a story to tell. Some were happy, others angry. But most had this in common: They all had hope for a better life in post-Saddam Iraq. Like me, they thought it would be the last of all wars.

But slowly that hope disappeared. Militia groups roamed the streets, kidnapping became prevalent, and safety was lost.

Three-and-a-half years later, I took the same trip I took at the start of the war.

I found the people who danced in the streets of Kirkuk disappointed and skeptical about the future of their city. Near Hussein's hometown, angry people had kept their vows and become insurgents. In Baghdad, the streets were as lifeless as they were those first days. In Hilla, the smiles disappeared as car bombs created new mass graves.

The war has united Iraqis in their disappointment. I ask myself if our expectations were too high. It is hard to answer. But I look back and realize that the fears that I had four years ago were misplaced: If Bush had changed his mind about the war, things might be better now.

The writer is a student at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism.

washingtonpost.com - nation, world, technology and Washington area news and headlines

Victims of war

Four years after the decision to launch a massive military assault on Iraq, the country lies in ruins. Will history hold those responsible to account?

Anas Altikriti

March 18, 2007 9:00 AM | Printable version

The US Senate voted in favour of imposing a deadline for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, but then, it was reported, failed to impose a similar deadline to end the war in Iraq.

Two scenarios emerge from this piece of news; either that the issue of ending US military presence in Iraq is seen as exclusive from signalling an end to the war, in which case the US believes that another war, totally out of the control of the occupation forces is in full swing in Iraq. Or that the US Senate still retains belief that it has full control and therefore has the power to terminate any war going on in Iraq. Hence the question, why hasn't it done so already?

Which of these scenarios is true however, is unclear.

Exactly four years after the decision to launch a massive military assault on Iraq, the country lies in ruins. Whatever remained of a once proud and united nation following a brutal and inhumane 13-year sanctions regime, has been obliterated as a result of a military action of gigantic proportions to serve the interests of a handful of politicians and political agendas in the west, Israel and Iraq.

Millions of Iraqis, indeed the vast majority of the population (myself included), regarded the Ba'athist regime as one of the most brutal and evil dictatorships in the world. We dreamt of seeing the back of it for decades while the US, UK and a number of other western countries provided it with unlimited military, economic and political support in return for lucrative commercial and financial gains. Now we find the country and its people facing times much worse than they ever were, even in those dark days.

There has been a total and complete collapse of a modern society, which once boasted one of the most advanced healthcare, education and industrial systems throughout the developing world, and which saw the total eradication of illiteracy and the rate of infant mortality reduced to levels better than even those of Spain and Italy. It produced dozens of scientists from all walks of life every single year. This is an indictment of the western values that George Bush and Tony Blair continuously flaunt going to war over.

Politicians and scientists will disagree as to whether the number of Iraqis killed since March 2003 amount to 75,000 or 750,000. Take your pick as to whom you find more credible; but it destructs any moral argument we may have to propose that things have gone relatively well since "only" 75,000 people have been killed over the course of four years. The prime minister will argue, of course - having done so already on a number of occasions - that more would have been killed had Saddam Hussein remained in power. Yes, it is possible that such a number would have been killed at the hands of the Ba'athist regime. We can all indulge in hypothetical arguments since they serve our political interests so well. However, what is beyond hypothetical is that our actions have actually, certainly and undeniably killed, directly or otherwise, any number between 75,000 and 750,000 civilians over the past 48 months. To attempt to justify, draw parallels or compare figures that relate to human lives is a desecration of the very notions of human rights, freedom and democracy that we claim to hold and fight for.

And what of those that have seen their lives obliterated? What of the children who can no longer venture outside their front doors, never mind go to school? The academics who can no longer study or produce works of science; the women who constantly fear rape, abduction or the loss of a loved one; the sick who cannot find treatment; the detained, abused and tortured on mere suspicion or for being at the wrong place at the wrong time; the afraid, the traumatised, the terrorised, the injured, wounded and the disabled? What of the nation which never in its modern existence came to see its citizens according to their sect, ethnicity, religion, or nationalistic orientations, yet now finds that not only its political system and constitution - parachuted in all the way from Uncle Sam's back yard - but their entire social and civil structures divided along lines that were, until March 2003, invisible (indeed, non-existent)?

If anyone is still counting, the victims of the war in Iraq are all the Iraqis. All 25 million of them, apart from the handful who made political or financial gains out of the destruction of a country, the division of a nation and the mass-scale embezzlement. More than $350bn of Iraq's riches has been siphoned, either through ghost contracts, corruption on a massive scale or the unmonitored selling-off of Iraq's oil on the cheap to middle-men who then see to it that affluent countries, such as the UK, continue to get their fill at an affordable price.

Our politicians have a lot to answer for. History will hold them to account and will see to it that their respective legacies are tainted with the faces, shredded limbs and blood of those who endured the ramifications of their decisions, votes and statements made from the luxury of high offices in London, Washington and elsewhere. But before that happens we, the people of free and democratic nations, must. Otherwise, we too will have sold out on our humanity and become complicit in one of the crimes of modern history.

Comment is free: Victims of war

Rather negative a commentary.

True, this war will be debated for long, but can it or its fallout be that bad?

Originally Posted by neyzen

Polls are good instruments to lie. Most probably they even can't get close to many iraqis. I have some doubts about their sampling.

Make the case for why this poll "lies" and what your doubts are.

Here's the link to the company that conducted the polling.

ORB - Opinion Business Research - Newsroom

Additionally, they posted the final data tables from the questionnaire as well as an easier to digest presentation on some of the data. I've also uploaded the .pdf versions of both for easier download.

It seems that Iraqis are now in as much danger from pollsters as insurgents. Researchers have clearly been flooding the country, as another poll has been released from roughly the same period of time.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iraq poll 2007: In graphics

This one was commissioned by a number of media organisations & done by D3, a company with experience in the Middle East.

International Full Service Market, Media, Opinion Research

The results are a bit less optimistic than the ORB report. Unfortunately I don't have time to go over both carefully enough to see if there are any trends in common or if the questions push responses toward one conclusion or another (going overseas on Friday). I'll have to leave that to the wiser heads hereabouts.

Nice to see you back Shek, hope you had a relaxing break.

Originally Posted by Bigfella

It seems that Iraqis are now in as much danger from pollsters as insurgents. Researchers have clearly been flooding the country, as another poll has been released from roughly the same period of time.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iraq poll 2007: In graphics

This one was commissioned by a number of media organisations & done by D3, a company with experience in the Middle East.

International Full Service Market, Media, Opinion Research

The results are a bit less optimistic than the ORB report. Unfortunately I don't have time to go over both carefully enough to see if there are any trends in common or if the questions push responses toward one conclusion or another (going overseas on Friday). I'll have to leave that to the wiser heads hereabouts.

Nice to see you back Shek, hope you had a relaxing break.

Bigfella,

The break was relaxing and uneventful.

Thanks for the links - were you able to find the underlying demographics of the D3/BBC survey? I couldn't locate them.

Originally Posted by Shek

Bigfella,

The break was relaxing and uneventful.

Thanks for the links - were you able to find the underlying demographics of the D3/BBC survey? I couldn't locate them.

Funny how we crave excitement in our youth, yet the older we become them more 'uneventful' seems like a fine way to spend a holiday.

Of course, I'm off to Thailand & Cambodia for 3 weeks on Friday, so I've just undercut my own argument. Though I do plan to do a whole lot of nothing while I'm over there.

I had a brief look for demographics on the D3 site & couldn't find them, though it was a brief look. Tell me if you manage to find them.

I suspect that a thorough examination of both surveys will reveal a lot more consistency than the 'headline' figures suggest. As I said, I won't have time to examine them too carefully, so I'll have to rely on your wise judgement.

Is this what you were looking for?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/h...raqpollnew.pdf

Originally Posted by Parihaka

Is this what you were looking for?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/h...raqpollnew.pdf

Parihaka,

No. I was trying to see if the D3 polling results had a demographic breakdown of where they conducted the interviews, which reveals how sophisticated of a sampling method they used. I'm sure that it's fine, but I always like to look at methodology. For example, if you look at the ORB stuff that I posted the details to (and which was the basis of the article posted by Ray), you'll find the numbers of respondents by cluster (which represent geographical regions) and how these clusters were weighted to come up overall numbers, you find a very solid methodology prima faccia. I just wanted to see if that data was available. If you're not sure what I'm talking about, look at the 3rd and 4th charts from the ORB presentation, and that is the data which provides good evidence that it is a solid survey on the surface.