Thread: US preparing to nuke Iran

Every once in a while STRATFOR will publish something that has a lot of insight. However, the simple problem with Friedman's (not Tom) piece is that even with Katrina, the US economy still grew. Outside of partisan politics and "nuking" the credibility of the Army Corps of Engineer, there wasn't anything catastrophic about Katrina beyond the immediate impacts of the Gulf Coast. To achieve the destruction equivalent to Katrina would take many more nukes that terrorists could ever dream of delivering in the coming decades.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

You may know more than me but I had thought that both we and the Soviets abandonned the megaton bombs back in the 70s and 80s. The precision got to a bomb where such large bombs are a waste of lift and better used for MIRV.

Right up until the end of the Cold War the Soviets maintained some HUGE devices. I can't remember which, but one of their ICBM types had a 20+ MT unitary warhead. The US Minuteman II also had a 1MT Unitary up until the late 80s IIRC.

The largest weapon in ACTIVE US service is the 1.2Mt B83 gravity bomb, but it is said that 50 B53's have been retained. The B53 warhead is the largest US device ever deployed- 9Mt.

The Soviet EMP "Tsar Bomba" reportedly had a 100Mt yield. When initiated it was configured for a yield of 50Mt. That was the largest manmade thermonuclear initiation ever.

Originally Posted by M21Sniper

I agree 100% with your assessment, but in reality it would take several devices in the 15-50kt range to reliably ensure the near total destruction of all the national assets and the branches of gov't. They're all pretty widely spaced(for a reason).

Example, the NSA is in US Postal Zip Code 20755, a minimum of 22.1 miles from US Postal Zip Code 20505- where the Central Intelligence Agency HQ is located. The Pentagon is in 20301, which itself is 47.7 miles from the boundry of 20755(NSA), and 54.5 miles from 20705(CIA). Finally, the White House is in Zip Code 20543, which is a minimum of 21.7 miles from 20755(NSA), and 5.1 miles from 20301(Pentagon). Each of those should DEFINITELY be considered hard targets(if not for the sheer sprawling size of the individual CIA/NSA complexes alone).

So you're talking one nuclear device for EACH location.

During the Cold War the Soviets had something like 57 seperate aimpoints(probably 3 weapons each) in the DC vicinity.

Conversely, a single 15kt detonation(definitely in the upper end of possibility for a 'crude weapon', according to S.Slade) detonated on the Observation Deck of the ESB would likely kill AT LEAST a half million plus instantly, and probably another 500k within 72 hours. Another 500k could die within 2 weeks, and another 1M would be homeless and destitute. And the entire financial capital of the US will have been utterly anhillated and contaminated(a crude bomb is a VERY "dirty" bomb), with a real world property damage value of perhaps 1+ Trillion dollars with cleanup costs probably AT LEAST that high.

All with 1 'crude' device.

NOTE: All distances listed are from zip code boundry to zip code boundry(IOW actual distances are somewhat greater than listed). www.mapquest.com provided distance information.

Oh, I wasn't saying that the the terrorists had to - or even COULD - utterly destroy everything in the Washington Military District. But all that government STUFF in Metro DC COULD be destroyed utterly, and as for the rest (like CIA, NSA, DIA)...who knows how many of the REAL assets - the Federal employee force that keeps the wheels turning - are going to drive into 'the hot zone', right past the Big Ole Crater to go back to work, when we need 'em the most?

I was just saying that on 9/11, smarter targeting would've gotten Osama WAY further down the road than he actually achieved by striking at symbols, instead of strategic targets. Me, if I have four or five jets with full fuel, I hit NSA, CIA, the White House (when the Prez is HOME...what a bunch o' maroons!), DIA, and the Pentagon. (None of us knew how TOUGH the Pentagon was going to be to REALLY rock the house.)

Hell, it was bad enough as it was. It could've been so much worse, though.

Originally Posted by Bluesman

For your purposes, Sniper's target is easier to hit, and would likely get the same job done - economic paralysis and chaos.

For my money, it's either New York (Manhattan would be good, but 'center mass' would suffice) or DC. Either one is simply irreplaceable, and the second and third order effects are simply incaculable.

I'll give you one example: there were many stories on this in the press, but if the hijackers hadn't wanted to go after symbols and had instead been thinking strategically, what if they had not gone after our tallest skyscrapers, but suppose they had destroyed NSA instead, along with its workforce and technical infrastructure. Suppose instead of a few dozen offices in the Pentagon, they had taken out the data handling, comms, one-of-a-kind facilities and all the corporate knowledge at CIA.

How would we have fought them then? Where would we have gotten the immediately-needed but non-duplicatable know-how and intellectual capital to generate the intel needed for an intelligent response? It would've been a catastrophe, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would've barely been possible to execute, and all but impossible to win. They had that choice and opportunity, but didn't see it. Thank God.

Which brings me back to my point: suppose instead of destroying our gold reserve (bad, I'll grant you that), they destroyed our capacity to recover from ANY strike, in ANY place in the country. Think of the enormous loss of governing power concentrated in the capital. All of the departments and those Federal workers with double-digit years of experience. The mass of data necessary to make intelligent decisions. And the facilities that simply cannot be replicated on the fly. ALL of that goes in a flash of light, and takes with it our ability to respond quickly, correctly and efficiently.

If I'm Osama, I blow away DC. I can be assured that I have months before an effective counterpunch comes my way, and in the time I've bought for myself, I can get a few more things done to sustain momentum and keep the infidels off-balance.

And that, children, is how assymetric warfare works on the nuclear level.

The hijackers would not be able to hit NSA or CIA. They had a hard time trying to find the White House, the most publicized building in the world. What makes you think that the hijackers could find the NSA and the CIA headquarters from air? They would have been unable to case those buildings out as they did with World Trade Towers and Pentagon.

As for taking out NSA and crippling in one stroke, sorry don't buy that. NORAD should have been able to handle the extra load or other C4I installations spread out through the country. During the height of the Cold War, the planners should have realized the need for redundacy.

As for hitting Manhattan that could work as long as that area have the credit information and bank transaction data. If these two alone goes up, the economy goes kaput.

Originally Posted by Blademaster

As for hitting Manhattan that could work as long as that area have the credit information and bank transaction data. If these two alone goes up, the economy goes kaput.

Ice Storm 98. Everybody went back to using paper.

Originally Posted by M21Sniper

OOE:

Sir, the "Are you kidding?" SHOULD have been labeled BLADEMASTER, as i was referring to him, and not you.

I appologize for the mix up. I hate when the quote function goes goofy.

When you throw nuclear bombs, you are past the point of worrying about an armor division and the training school. You want to inflict much pain as much as possible.

For the Soviets, I'd say that their ruble was tied to the gold standard in some way. Don't really know the dynamics of the ruble and the dollar but if the Soviets were to think that they could win a nuclear war, they'd want to preserve their economy and state as much as possible.

Keeping the gold intact would override any military need to destroy that armor division and the training school.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Ice Storm 98. Everybody went back to using paper.

I mean the data stored in the electronic banks. What happens when someone tries to withdraw his account and you need to verify the amount in the bank he has before allowing him to withdraw?

If he says he has 500,000 dollars but in reality only has 300,000 dollars, how do you verify it? Old bank statements might do the trick but it is not up to dated.

Ice Storm 98. Electrical power and even the great black out several years ago. You went back to using paper, including paper money. You line up at a human bank teller who made a paper and traceable transaction. You imprint a physical copy of the old visa machine and submitted at the bank or teller.

It's not as efficent but it works and the economy did not come crashing down.

Originally Posted by Blademaster

When you throw nuclear bombs, you are past the point of worrying about an armor division and the training school. You want to inflict much pain as much as possible.

Now, that is blatantly not true. Even the Soviets realizes the last one standing with a gun is the winner. After all the nukes had been tossed (or at a point of all confusion), if the other side had tanks and you don't, you're toast.

Originally Posted by Blademaster

Keeping the gold intact would override any military need to destroy that armor division and the training school.

You're not thinking this through. There was no way for the Soviets to get the gold.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Now, that is blatantly not true. Even the Soviets realizes the last one standing with a gun is the winner. After all the nukes had been tossed (or at a point of all confusion), if the other side had tanks and you don't, you're toast.

but would they be in any shape to use those tanks?


[/quote]
You're not thinking this through. There was no way for the Soviets to get the gold.[/QUOTE]

True, you spot my weakness where i hope nobody would notice. Soviets would have a snowball's chance in hell in reclaiming that gold.

Originally Posted by Blademaster

but would they be in any shape to use those tanks?

That's what the reserves are for.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

Ice Storm 98. Everybody went back to using paper.

Paper does not stand up to a nuclear fire ball very well.