Israel weighs threat, new talks

Ray · 06-07-2007, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Israel weighs threat, new talks

By Joshua Mitnick
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
June 7, 2007

TEL AVIV -- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert huddled with Cabinet ministers yesterday to discuss Syria and Lebanon amid heightened speculation that Israel may be at a crossroads between war and renewed peace talks with Damascus.
While Syrian President Bashar Assad has dangled the possibility of renewed peace negotiations in recent months, Israeli intelligence officials have been monitoring what is viewed as disturbing signs of a coming conflict -- new Russian-made military hardware in Syria and a bolstering of Syrian forces near the Golan Heights.
Worried about a loss of deterrence after last summer's botched war with Hezbollah in Lebanon, some Israeli analysts have suggested that Syria may be preparing an attack to recover the strategic Golan Heights plateau captured by Israel 40 years ago this week.
Others fear that Iran, under the threat of a U.S. military strike, may try to provoke a war between Syria and Israel to open a second front. Israeli intelligence officials think Iran is paying for Syria's new military hardware.
"It's clear that there's a concrete danger of war up north in the next one to two years," said Ran Cohen, a parliament member from the dovish Meretz party who says Israel should open peace talks to reduce the possibility of war.
"The last war in Lebanon opened a big wound between Israel, Syria and Lebanon. And it hasn't healed," Mr. Cohen said.
Speculation about war escalated this week as the Israeli army televised a military dress rehearsal for a battle with Syria.
Interspersed with footage of helicopters firing missiles into simulated Syrian villages, Israel's military chief of staff, Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi said on Tuesday that the army was preparing for an escalation of tensions along the northern board.
"If you're not fighting a war, you prepare for war," he said.
The comments by security officials regarding heightened chances for war spurred warnings that the statements could become self-fulfilling prophecies.
At the conclusion of yesterday's Cabinet meeting, Mr. Olmert said Israel was trying to defuse the tension by conveying calming messages to Syria through third parties.
The prime minister also said that Israel is ready to sit down to peace talks with Syria at any time without preconditions.
"Israel does not want war with Syria," Mr. Olmert said. "We must avoid miscalculations that are liable to lead to a security deterioration."
Israel's government has balked in the past at Mr. Assad's entreaties to peace talks, even though many in Israel's security establishment back negotiations.
"It sounds as if the obvious thing for Israel to do would be to negotiate with Syria," said Dan Schueftan, a political science professor at Haifa University. "But when you look at it closely, the very fact you're willing to negotiate with them requires serious risks. I don't believe that you negotiate with radicals, you break them."
Israel's Channel 2 television news reported that despite the upgraded Syrian preparedness, Israeli military intelligence chiefs don't think that Mr. Assad wants to initiate a war in the short term.
Three successive Israeli governments in the 1990s negotiated peace with Syria, hoping to reach an accord that would be infinitely more simple than a treaty with the Palestinians.
At the time, it was assumed that Syria wouldn't dare challenge Israel's military superiority by pushing war. But after Hezbollah succeeded in lobbing dozens of rockets into Israel from southern Lebanon last summer, Israel seemed vulnerable.

Israel weighs threat, new talks - World - The Washington Times, America's Newspaper

Even though there is no doubt that Israel still has a formidable defence force, yet the last conflict with the Hezbollah has left much to be desired. It has surely made quite a few friends sick with worry because the approach to the conflict did not have the signature of the old Israeli political will nor the dash and daring of its earlier Army.

Given that as the background, the arming of Syria with new Russian equipment as also the possibility of Russian use of Syrian ports is not a very comfortable situation. It is a cause for serious worry. More so, since Putin has started flexing his muscles and there is a smell of returning to the Cold War days in international politics.

The Syria Iran collusion is a dangerous situation for Israel. If Syria with Iranian help does start a war with Israel to take back the Golan Heights (Israel recently did a huge exercise on the Golan), then it might take an unfortunate turn.

Syria may not be in a position to wage war, but the situation should be closely watched along with that in Lebanon.

It might be prudent to negotiate with Syria if they extend a peace offer, but one's guard should not be put down.

The US has good reasons to give the Middle East a second look.

Druze · 06-07-2007, 13:08 PM

Ray negotiating with Syria poses a major problem for Israel since Syria is a clear and open supporter of Hezbollah and Hamas. Syria when it signed a defense pact with Iran last year made itself a semi-puppet of Iran by doing so.
Israel intelligence in Syria is very widespread and it knows well that Syria wouldn't stop supporting terrorism even if it acknowleged Israel officially in return for the Golan.

Ray put yourself in the place of an Israeli Prime Minister. Your asked to sign away your only bargaining chip (The Golan) for a peace that has a 95% likelihood of changing nothing in terms of state sponsored terrorism by Syria.

Syria can't risk a direct war with Israel as it would be finished off quickly. How long would it take? Anywhere from 72 hours to 3 weeks. From the Golan Heights Israel can cover its tanks and infantry with amazing accuracy from its field artillery. Israel knows of every single air defense battery in all of Syria. The Road to Damascus would be the battle. Syrians probably won't give up Damascus without a fight which would lead to a blockade and siege of the city which would then turn into a humanitarian crisis after a certain period and a media disaster for Israel with potential for an explosive escalation.
However bad it could become politically for Israel, Syria would no doubt be finished as their infrastructure would be demolished.

Most likely expect another aggravation by Hezbollah next month as this current fake crisis in Lebanon winds down.
Don't think for one second that Hezbollah is going to let the Lebanese Army steal any glory. As soon as this fake conflict with this Fatah-al-Islam group is over Hezbollah will make a political move followed by a military one as they always do.

Also once this UN tribunal of the Hariri assasination convenes expect Syria and Iran to pressure Hezbollah to quickly take the spotlight off that and place it on something else, Israel always works.

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06-07-2007, 13:08 PM	#2 (permalink)
Druze Regular Join Date: 04-23-07 Posts: 90	Ray negotiating with Syria poses a major problem for Israel since Syria is a clear and open supporter of Hezbollah and Hamas. Syria when it signed a defense pact with Iran last year made itself a semi-puppet of Iran by doing so. Israel intelligence in Syria is very widespread and it knows well that Syria wouldn't stop supporting terrorism even if it acknowleged Israel officially in return for the Golan. Ray put yourself in the place of an Israeli Prime Minister. Your asked to sign away your only bargaining chip (The Golan) for a peace that has a 95% likelihood of changing nothing in terms of state sponsored terrorism by Syria. Syria can't risk a direct war with Israel as it would be finished off quickly. How long would it take? Anywhere from 72 hours to 3 weeks. From the Golan Heights Israel can cover its tanks and infantry with amazing accuracy from its field artillery. Israel knows of every single air defense battery in all of Syria. The Road to Damascus would be the battle. Syrians probably won't give up Damascus without a fight which would lead to a blockade and siege of the city which would then turn into a humanitarian crisis after a certain period and a media disaster for Israel with potential for an explosive escalation. However bad it could become politically for Israel, Syria would no doubt be finished as their infrastructure would be demolished. Most likely expect another aggravation by Hezbollah next month as this current fake crisis in Lebanon winds down. Don't think for one second that Hezbollah is going to let the Lebanese Army steal any glory. As soon as this fake conflict with this Fatah-al-Islam group is over Hezbollah will make a political move followed by a military one as they always do. Also once this UN tribunal of the Hariri assasination convenes expect Syria and Iran to pressure Hezbollah to quickly take the spotlight off that and place it on something else, Israel always works.

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