Ray

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"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

Leader

What are they going to do? They can't do anything accept complain.

The Iranian government would be foolish to base it's continued existence on that assumption.

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Horrido

We have ground forces on the eastern and western borders of Iran. Since things are slowing down in both Afghanistan and Iraq, it would not be far-fetched to secure Iran with a classic pinchers move, and a potential amphibious landing on the south shores to boot.

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The black flag is raised: Ban them all... Let the Admin sort them out.

I know I'm going to have the last word... I have powers of deletion and lock.

lwarmonger

But we don't have the manpower necessary to occupy a country of over 60 million, much of it populating rural and mountanous terrain. I'm sure we could cut our way through the Iranian army without difficulty, but a lot of that country is made for guerrilla warfare, and with three times the population of Iraq.... we wouldn't be conquering that nation without a substantial enlargement of the US Army (and even then it would be an open ended commitment that would make Vietnam look like a tea party).

Swift Sword

There is one instance where we handed the Iranians a juicy favor: Saddam Hussein and the Taliban were probably at the top of the list of Tehran's security headaches which subsequently frees up Iranian resources to pursue other objectives.

As far as an amphibious landing, Iran is an opponent that has a previous history of employing mines and ASMs. Furthermore, the systemic effects of military activity in the Arabian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz are well known and worth avoiding if the opportunity is there.

A landing on the Iranian coast along the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea would be safe enough but it is awful far from anywhere in that country as near as I can tell.

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Pharoh was pimp but now he is dead. What are you going to do today?

Swift Sword

There is one instance where we handed the Iranians a juicy favor: Saddam Hussein and the Taliban were probably at the top of the list of Tehran's security headaches which subsequently frees up Iranian resources to pursue other objectives.

As far as an amphibious landing, Iran is an opponent that has a previous history of employing mines and ASMs. Furthermore, the systemic effects of military activity in the Arabian Gulf and Straits of Hormuz are well known and worth avoiding if the opportunity is there.

A landing on the Iranian coast along the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea would be safe enough but it is awful far from anywhere in that country as near as I can tell.

Swift Sword

And sell them fairly advanced and capable weapons.

Those 30 Tor M1 systems the Russians just agreed to sell to Iran look to be fairly capable and the anti cruise missle capability will no doubt make some in Iran sleep a little easier.

Iranian air defences seem to be able to cover all important altitudes and ranges but is based on point defense at this point (AFIAK). A little Chinese and/or Russian systems integration would make punitive and/or preemptory air strikes--a favored US and Israeli tactic--a much more costly proposition.

Can any of the resident WAB experts shed any light on the state of Iranian air defences and theoretical capability?

In genral, several of the United States' strategic competitors are dealing with and bolstering the Iranian regime so it might be kind of hard to assess exactly what cards Tehran is holding.

Anon

That is without doubt the dumbest thing i've ever heard...

Anon

The US has PLENTY of air and naval power sitting around doing nothing.

The WOT and the occupation of Iraq have our ground forces tied up, not our naval and air forces.

We could EASILY unleash an ODS style massive air campaign against iran, and there's really very little they could do to even slow us down.

dalem

But don't we need good targeting info first?

-dale

Anon

It is not hard to find a reactor from orbit.

dalem

But what about storage sites, tunnels, blah blah blah?

Or am I biting too hard on the "It's all hidden" bait?

-dale

Swift Sword

According to the Bush Administration, Operation Desert Storm was not very effective viz WMD as it left Saddam Hussein in a postion to improve his capabilities and expand his stockpiles.

Swift Sword

Hi Dale,

If they are known, those types of targets can be hit with weapons that will destroy them. The knowing part can be problematical viz WMD, though, as ODS and OIF have shown.

M21 Sniper has correctly pointed out that some activities in the nuclear business are hard to conceal. However, without good information on the advanced state of the Iranian program, it might be difficult to disrupt as we might not be able to tell which targets are critical at any given moment (i.e. bombing a facility they are already done with for all intents and purposes).

A military effort against Iran by the United States might take any one of several forms and are all probably termed "low risk" from a military standpoint (but not neccessarily from a geostrategic stanpoint!).

I have heard some pretty well informed opinions that a credible baseline air campaign against Iran would involve 300 targets and probably take five days to prosecute. Half of those targets would be weapons facilities and the other half air defense as well as command and control facilities. What other guesses and projections has anybody heard?

In the event of military action against Iran (outside of turning the place upside down with a full court regime changing ground offensive) the big question is probably what are they going to do to offset it?

Iranian air defenses are getting better every day it seems, they have had years to harden facilities, they have had a front row seat to observe the American way of war in neighboring countries, they do have the means to retaliate after a fashion, etc., etc. The longer the situation goes on, the better the position the Iranians will be in, methinks.

Regardless of which course of action you favor regarding Iranian nuclear ambitions, the time to act is now and opportunities are dwindling with each passing day.

lwarmonger

We shouldn't forget the one way that they can hit back at us, namely in Iraq. By pouring weapons and "revolutionaries" into that country (instead of the low level stuff that is going in there now), the Iranians can make our life much more difficult than it already is. That is something to consider before taking unilateral action against Iran.