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Old 12-14-2005, 08:04 AM   #46 (permalink)
Garry
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lwarmonger
But Israeli stocks of modern weapons are also limited. 1973 demonstrated the superiority of Western tanks, but also demonstrated the effectiveness of Russian surface to air missiles (at shooting down aircraft from both sides).


The US might allow Israeli air strikes over Iraqi air space... but they won't allow the Iranians to hit back through American defenses.
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I agree that it would take more than a few air strikes to destroy Iran's nuclear program. I'm not so sure about 500, but clearly more than Israel is capable of launching at a target that far away.

I agree. Israeli will need large quantities to bomb Iran. However in my view Iranian SAMs are quite weak and dated to 1970-es. The new Tor-M1s are short range and there are only 30 of them. Air Force.... I have little data about their air force, but assume it weak.

Nonetheless Israel will need large amount of heavy bombs to knock down Iranian nuclear idustry which is spread throughout the country..... Few strategic bombers could have helped ...... but Israel does not have them. They will need many sorties.... which will protract the campaign and may trigger supply of more powerful SAMs


ps. even if USA let Israely pass through Iraq, it may lead to problems in Iraq... as iraqi people might be against that.


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Their mobile launchers should tide them over for a while to come. It will take a bit of time before Iran develops counter-force capability, even when they do acquire nukes.
I suppose that Israel has nukes already. They need to hurry up for a fleet of nuclear capable submarines to threaten Iran with devastating revenge stricke. This can creadibly hold Iran once it gets nukes. From my experience - Iranians even when they play game of fanatics are quite reasonable.
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Old 12-14-2005, 11:46 AM   #47 (permalink)
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Hahahaha! That's a good one! Even if the Israelis had use of an aircraft carrier (I don't think they have the manpower or the need), the Egyptians wouldn't let them through the Suez, and they lack sufficient basing rights to get any escorts around the Horn of Africa and back.
Habibi, you are assuming that the AC would first be allowed to pass through the suez or go around the horn to reach Israel. If it can't go out, it can't reach either. What if the AC is delivered at high seas on the Arabian sea and the israeli aircrafts were just flown on board.
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Old 12-14-2005, 11:50 AM   #48 (permalink)
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Between the US and Israel? I don't see why they would want an aircraft carrier. That would consume 5000 men for the carrier alone, plus the people needed in the battle group surrounding it... all of this out of a military 150 thousand strong. The benefit simply isn't worth the cost to them, as they can use those thousands of men and women in far better ways. People are as precious to the IDF as equipment is.
True about the manpower but you must take into account the enormous flexibility it would give Israel for launching strikes against Iran. They would not have to pass through any hostile airspace other then Iranian. We mustn't forget the fundamental reason as to why aircraft carriers came into existence, in this case Israel will be well served by one.
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Old 12-14-2005, 11:52 AM   #49 (permalink)
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Iranians even when they play game of fanatics are quite reasonable.
Well Said.
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Old 12-14-2005, 11:54 AM   #50 (permalink)
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In this case Israel will be well served by one.
Israel can't use one. She cannot afford one. Hell, she can't even afford to operate one. She doesn't know how. And she doesn't have the time to learn.
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Old 12-14-2005, 12:00 PM   #51 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Garry
Iranians even when they play game of fanatics are quite reasonable

Yes but their president is a complete and total moron considering his rethoric about the holucost and that Israel should be whiped off the map etc. Oh and someone should teach him some geography as well as history since the moron obviously dont know much about either. And this guy wants the world to let him become nuclear capable? Please!
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Old 12-14-2005, 12:58 PM   #52 (permalink)
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Israel can't use one. She cannot afford one. Hell, she can't even afford to operate one. She doesn't know how. And she doesn't have the time to learn.
If they can't afford to buy one, they have to lease one.
In the larger context of national security, they have to find the manpower and put in the effort.
Finally, if it is a race against time, they better get going now, isn't it Colonel?
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Old 12-14-2005, 12:59 PM   #53 (permalink)
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Yes but their president is a complete and total moron considering his rethoric about the holucost and that Israel should be whiped off the map etc. Oh and someone should teach him some geography as well as history since the moron obviously dont know much about either. And this guy wants the world to let him become nuclear capable? Please!
No. Actually he is quite smart. He is rallying the islamic world, slowly but surely. Secondly, this also appeases the mullahs within Iran.
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Old 12-14-2005, 13:05 PM   #54 (permalink)
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No. Actually he is quite smart. He is rallying the islamic world, slowly but surely.

To do just what? Cast out or destroy a people that have existed there for the last 3300 years? Yeah thats real smart continue preaching hatred and destruction towards a certain people whome the Mulla's dont agree with because they are of a different religion. Funny I was always under the impression that most modern religious teachers and figures always tought peace and acceptance over hatred and destruction guess Im wrong then.

Heaven forbid they not appease the Mulla's and their "own" interpertation of what religious law is and what ones holy book says for surely they must be the wisest of men alive Please, the only people they are fooling are their own the very same people who will suffer when the Israelis bring them a war their people dont want because they will be forced to do so out of survival and i strongly doubt any country would follow Iran to war with such outrageous hatred and rhetoric over ones religion no matter how much this man attempts to court the palastinians by their mention in his assnine speeches. How wise will he and the Mulla's look then?

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Old 12-14-2005, 14:45 PM   #55 (permalink)
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If they can't afford to buy one, they have to lease one.
Carriers are a rich country's toys. They are insanely expensive to maintain, and require years of instititutional experience to become effective.

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In the larger context of national security, they have to find the manpower and put in the effort.
The manpower simply isn't there. They are a country of 5 million surrounded by far more populous neighbors who have a historical grudge against them. With 150,000 soldiers, they are already far more militarized than they can maintain on their own. A carrier would see the costs of operation spiral out of control.

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Finally, if it is a race against time, they better get going now, isn't it Colonel?
If the situation truly gets that desperate, better just to use nukes.
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Old 12-14-2005, 15:28 PM   #56 (permalink)
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A couple technical details. Egypt does allow the Israeli navy to use the Suez Canal, and Israel is a nation of 7 million, not 5 (not that that makes a huge difference). I still agree that Israel can't afford a carrier, but the manpower situation can be adressed by channelling more conscripts into the navy instead of the army, and the Suez can be used.

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Old 12-14-2005, 17:15 PM   #57 (permalink)
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Why doesn't Israel buy strategic bombers from the USA??
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Old 12-14-2005, 19:24 PM   #58 (permalink)
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cost.

two F-15I's can do the same sub-strategic job, then fly an air defence mission.

the B-1B could only do one of those missions.

the advent of JDAM and 'bunker-busting' bombs negates the usefulness - apart from range - of non-stealth strategic bombers.
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Old 12-14-2005, 20:28 PM   #59 (permalink)
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What is Iran's airforce like? Many people have said it is sadly outdated although they must have brought some imports?
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Old 12-14-2005, 20:50 PM   #60 (permalink)
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Just reading in another thread is Israel is establishing air bases in Oman. Meaning they could attack Iran withouth having to fly over any other hostile territory. Israels pre emptive strikes would have a lot more chance of succeeding from this.
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