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Old 10-31-2005, 23:35 PM   #91 (permalink)
Bulgaroctonus
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swift Sword
About those potential outcomes mentioned above:

For purposes of discussion, I have made a fairly comprehensive list but would like some of your input as well to make sure that all of the bases are covered. I submit the following and welcome additions, comments, critique, etc.:
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Originally Posted by Swift Sword
a. A hostile regime with nuclear weapons;
Use subtle and long-term methods to undermine the nuclear enemy. Also consider using biochemical weapons to wipe out his populace or cause mass panic that may paralyze his nuclear system. Also, cyber terrorism could disable a weakly engineered nuclear system.

If the nuclear system of the enemy can be disabled for only a number of hours, the enemy can be eliminated. If the nuclear capabilities cannot be eliminated, caution is in order. However, as horrific as nuclear war is, it is no longer believed to be unwinnable.

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Originally Posted by Swift Sword
b. A regime that is much less hostile with nuclear weapons;
Try to ally with this friendly country, or at least enact a non-aggression pact. If they turn hostile, refer to point a.

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Originally Posted by Swift Sword
c. A regime of x degree of hostility that has a nuclear reactor, control of the fuel cycle but no weapons at the ready;
Prevent this power from gaining nuclear weapons. If possible, strategically destroy their weapons production facilities. Or, if one is fortunate to have plentiful military strength, defeat and occupy the country in conventional warfare. Then set up a puppet state that does not make nuclear weapons.

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Originally Posted by Swift Sword
d. An engaged regime that has a nuclear reactor but does not have control of the fuel cycle (i.e. fuel handling services via the U.S., Russia, a European entity or some combination of the three);
Keep them at this level, do not allow the production of nuclear weapons.

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Originally Posted by Swift Sword
e. an engaged regime that has no nuclear reactor, no weapons and no fuel cycle ambitions;
Defeat them and shamelessly extract their resources for the benefit of thy nation.

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Originally Posted by Swift Sword
f. OIF style regime change with attendent occupation and all associated costs and pitfalls.
Ninjas.
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Old 10-31-2005, 23:45 PM   #92 (permalink)
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Iran should not be tolerated. If there was ever a enemy, Iran fits the bill. Sometimes tolerance and negotiation are beneficial. However, I don't think this is one of those times.

We can't make the error of giving Iran too much credit. They are an enemy and are constantly opposed to United States interests. I would like to see that country severely maimed. Imagine the new respect for American power then. Europe, the Middle East, and a whole host of other nations are able to mock us because ever since World War II, American foreign military ventures have often been unsuccessful or frustrating. America needs to silence Iran, and the world's critics. Never underestimate the power of unbridled terror and fury.

The thing I'm worried about is the U.S. army becoming overstretched physically and financially.

I will not buy into the Thomas Friedman notion that war is irrelevant today, or somehow old-fashioned.

Last edited by Bulgaroctonus : 11-01-2005 at 00:00 AM.
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Old 10-31-2005, 23:59 PM   #93 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bulgaroctonus
What's Iran's status on Biochemical weapons?
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Chemical Weapons

Iran is currently able to employ chemical weapons, and Iran is progressing in its development of a large self-supporting CW infrastructure. Iran ratified the new Chemical Weapons Convention , under which it will be obligated to eliminate its chemical program over a period of years. Nevertheless, it continues to upgrade and expand its chemical warfare production infrastructure and munitions arsenal. The magnitude of this effort suggests that the Iranian leadership intends to maintain a robust CW capability.

The Iranian chemical weapons production program dates to early in the Iran-Iraq war. Iran used chemical agents to respond to Iraqi chemical attacks on several occasions during that war. Since the early 1990s, it has put a high priority on its chemical weapons program because of its inability to respond in kind to Iraq’s chemical attacks and the discovery of substantial Iraqi efforts with advanced agents, such as the highly persistent nerve agent VX.

Iran manufactures weapons for blister, blood, and choking agents; it is also believed to be conducting research on nerve agents. Iran's stockpile of chemical weapons is believed to include nerve and blister agents. Iran is estimated to have an inventory of several thousand tons of various agents, including sulfur mustard, phosgene, and cyanide agents. Its production capacity is estimated at as much as 1000 tons a year, with major production facilities located at Damghan, 300 kms east of Tehran. Iran is working on developing a self-sufficient CW production capacity that includes more effective nerve agents. Along with shell and bomb delivery systems, Iran may also be producing CW warheads for its Scud missile systems.

With extensive foreign assistance, Tehran is obtaining technology, chemical agent precursors, production equipment, and entire production plants. Although Iran is making a concerted effort to attain an independent production capability for all aspects of its chemical weapons program, it remains dependent on foreign sources for chemical warfare-related technologies. China is an important supplier of technologies and equipment for Iran’s chemical warfare program. Therefore, Chinese supply policies will be key to whether Tehran attains its long-term goal of independent production for these weapons.

In the future, as Iran becomes more self-sufficient at producing chemical agents, there is a potential that it will become a supplier to other states trying to develop CW capabilities. Iran supplied Libya with chemical agents in 1987.
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/cw/
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Old 11-01-2005, 00:01 AM   #94 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Bulgaroctonus
What's Iran's status on Biochemical weapons?
The ACDA (US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency) called it up to 2000 tons of chemical, including possible nerve and bio-toxin weapons. But... There should have been weapons in Iraq too, even old ones...
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He may even miscalculate and slide these weapons off to terrorist groups to invite them to be a surrogate to use them against the United States. It’s the miscalculation that poses the greatest threat-John Kerry
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Old 11-01-2005, 00:06 AM   #95 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Bulgaroctonus
They are an enemy and are constantly opposed to United States interests... Imagine the new respect for American power then.
Was with you up to there...
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Old 11-01-2005, 01:00 AM   #96 (permalink)
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Was with you up to there...
Huh? ....Cannot understand syntax.....
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Old 11-01-2005, 01:32 AM   #97 (permalink)
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help build up their middle-class. a growing middle-class inevitably forces a government to allow it more political power and democratize; furthermore, middle-class people are VERY loath to lose their economic status- .
U r very right about the middle class,but these classes dont grow in countries like iran .What i have seen is that a middle class arises mainly when the services industry takes of in that country.And for the same reason it wotn happen in Iran.
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Old 11-01-2005, 02:12 AM   #98 (permalink)
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Huh? ....Cannot understand syntax.....
I was on your side, until it became nationalist.
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Old 11-01-2005, 02:25 AM   #99 (permalink)
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I was on your side, until it became nationalist.
I see. So you are in favor of the general practice of military force, but not necessarily on behalf of America?
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Old 11-01-2005, 02:36 AM   #100 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Bulgaroctonus
I see. So you are in favor of the general practice of military force, but not necessarily on behalf of America?
Military force is, and should be, an option of last resort. I do not support the use of military force in general practice. And when I do support the use of military force, it certainly isn't going to be for the cause of making my country look cool. Also, there's nothing wrong with another country opposing your interests. That happens every day. It's called business.
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Old 11-01-2005, 02:36 AM   #101 (permalink)
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U r very right about the middle class,but these classes dont grow in countries like iran .What i have seen is that a middle class arises mainly when the services industry takes of in that country.And for the same reason it wotn happen in Iran.
and why won't it? iran actually had a large middle-class under the shah (and prior to the shah). after the '79 revolution many of them fled to america; that is why there are such large persian communities in places like orange county and LA.

by the way, the middle-class is not necessarily based off the service industry. to take one example, japan's middle-class grew heavily in the 1960s, long before japan started to shift to the service industry area in the late 70s and early 80s. this is true for south korea and taiwan as well.
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Old 11-01-2005, 02:39 AM   #102 (permalink)
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and why won't it? iran actually had a large middle-class under the shah (and prior to the shah)
New government, new rules, new country. The current government has the ability to repress the people's economic growth. Best way to get ahead is to know someone, and be a loyal supporter.
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Old 11-01-2005, 03:28 AM   #103 (permalink)
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the current government has the ability to repress the people's economic growth.
it has the ability, but it largely chooses not to do so. much like china's gov't, the student protests of the late 90s has shown the regime there that repressing the economy is not a good idea. yet it's in a bind: if it doesn't repress the economy, people will get more contact with such uncomfortable ideas as freedom and economic wealth; but if it does so, it risks pissing off the people.

the current iranian solution is to selectively repress some people (the most rowdy students) while giving everyone else some pretense at political power (the presidency) as well as some economic freedoms. the iranian people have found out, though, the limits to their political power (the president isn't all that important). this at first caused quite a few protests, but rising oil prices (mostly) and (a lot less so, but still there: you may even ask iranian EXILES, the opponents of the regime, what they think about iranian nuclear power, and they will support it) resentment to the pressure from the west has turned what was rage into a sullen apathy.

which is why i'm not a big fan of a confrontational approach with the iranians. it risks pushing the iranian populace unwillingly into the arms of a leadership that will use the siren song of nationalism. then we could very well stop reform in its tracks, and ironically give the ayatollahs exactly what they want.
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Old 11-01-2005, 04:39 AM   #104 (permalink)
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Military force is, and should be, an option of last resort. I do not support the use of military force in general practice. And when I do support the use of military force, it certainly isn't going to be for the cause of making my country look cool. Also, there's nothing wrong with another country opposing your interests. That happens every day. It's called business.
I am not usually a nationalist or a warmonger. However, I think that Iran poses a serious threat that has moved beyond the negotiation level. I support military force if it serves the my interest. As an American, I think that a war against Iran could be to our advantage. I don't view this as an instance where we're trying to look cool.

There is something wrong with another country opposing my interests when that country is Iran.
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Old 11-01-2005, 04:42 AM   #105 (permalink)
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which is why i'm not a big fan of a confrontational approach with the iranians. it risks pushing the iranian populace unwillingly into the arms of a leadership that will use the siren song of nationalism. then we could very well stop reform in its tracks, and ironically give the ayatollahs exactly what they want.
The situation in Iran is more complicated than many people recognize, that is true. There is a large, young population that has dubious loyalty to the theocracy. However, we can't wait forever for their second revolution. If Iran is about the go nuclear, we'll have to make a choice.
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