Thread: Will Israel Attack Iran in 2012?

Originally Posted by S2

"Israel has quite a number of units Sayeret Matkal, Sayeret Tzanhanim, Shayetet 13 and Shaldag Unit. As well as Sayeret rece in para battalions if need be augmented. With air support of dozens of F-15I's and F-16's, could keep opposing armor opposition limited. That means convoys of reinforcements could look like the highway in Iraq during the Persian gulf war. Of course they would have limited amount of munitions for SEAD and interdiction and a long long way from Israel.

What would they need would be Apaches, but they would need some sort of air field within Iraq to conduct operations. If they could be ferry to a isolated air field, captured by commandos, and fly in the munitions it may be possible. They could actually fly around the clock operations. But heck they would need to fly in a battalion or two to hold said air base. Iraq has nothing to retake it."

So...


What does your experience tell you that makes this not possible?

Lets just get to the point

Israel has different special forces elements (Sayeret Matkal, Sayeret Tzanhanim, Shayetet 13 and Shaldag Unit).
They have a capable air force.
There are isolated bases in Iraq.
They have Tankers/ELINT/Awacs.
They have a Paratrooper battalions.
And they have artillery that can be transported in C-130J's.

"There are gaps in detection in Jordanian airspace, and there [sic] air defenses capabilities are limited. If an Israeli force is detected they aren't going to interdict a much more overwhelming Israeli force. They don't have the capabilities with there [sic] F-16's. Saudi Arabia on the other hand has a much more capable air force, but there are still gaps, as Saudi Araba is a huge and isolated in the north. Syria as well as gaps in there [sic] air defense sites as well..."

So, no gaps? I take it you disagree with this post?

Originally Posted by Dago

So...


What does your experience tell you that makes this not possible?

The Israelis don't have the logistics. And SF is just plain meat against mech forces.

They do not have the capability, to dislodge an IDF combined task force of Paratroopers, artillery, gun ships. Isolated far away, in a remote air field, IAF in that scenario would have the ability to see any convoy, force, miles away.

They would have to be pretty close to Iran to base AH-64s.

They have a Paratrooper battalions.

Who haven't done a major combat jump since 1956.

You are the one who knows? I never stated who would smash who. I stated what assets Israel would use, as this thread turned into Ground infiltration. And how they would possibly go about it.

Two or three companies of commandos, deep inside Iran, surrounded by Iranian troops in defensive positions with increasing numbers of Iranians joining the fight - they would get smashed.

And you think such a force wouldn't have mortars either? Combined with freaking Eagles with jdams and Falcons? IDF forces would also have anti-tank weapons. Which are as accurate as Javelins.

Numbers and firepower would be on the Iranian side and would only grow by the hour.

Secondly, there would be an IDF force. Backed by artillery.

The need to carry troops, fuel and weapons for the helicopters and such would cut into the load carrying capability of a dozen C-130s. So assuming they dig up a battery of M-68s (155mm) out of some warehouse and find a crew that will just cut massively into their limited airlift capability.

With advanced F-15Is/F-16's against Iranian air force?

On home turf, with their own air force intact, their arrival could make all of the difference. A few helicopters/transports get shot down, a FOB is cluster bombed, or the commandos get bombed and the entire focus would change from Qom to trying to get people out.

And you have to understand, they are fearful of Iran possessing nuclear weapons. You don't think they would take those risks? Anyhow are you talking about the IAF? With advanced F-15Is/F-16's against Iranian air force?

Nope they wouldn't be sending any commandos on a raid which could cause them to lose a thousand guys.

If Iraq has any capable armor, they will need to logistically organize a force.

Driving up humvees, light infantry, with 120mm mortars would be enough to put that base totally on the defensive and change their focus from supporting a raid a hundred miles in Iran to protecting themselves and try to keep open to withdraw themselves. With the likely chance of the raiding force getting caught and trapped in Iran the Iraqis would have time to move on helicopter landing strips (to bring AH-64s over Qom and back in theory there would need to be a few on the way). The Iraqis have combat experience and numbers tell, especially if the raiding force gets stuck overnight in Iran giving them plenty of time to move battalion after battalion against them.

So many things could go wrong - Iraqis moving on landing strips, the Iranians being reasonably ready, the Iranian air force showing up, accidents - any of them could mess the whole thing up. And they have a thin margin because of their own rather limited long distance capability. Small numbers of Israelis trapped deep in hostile territory reliant on a minuscule number of transports and tankers. Leave a few hundred dead Israelis in Iran and there would be a major political crisis in Israel. We are not talking about the WW2 Soviet Army which was prepared to lose large numbers of men to win battles and hide the totals from their own people. I think people are over-enamored with special forces raids...

Makes the Duchess of Gerolstein look like Genghis Khan.

What are forces trained as, light infantry, or airborne, with regard against mech forces? Every force goes through the training don't they? I agree they can't hold ground, but can they hold the ground for a little bit, with air support?

And how about isolated bases in Iraq, they can't operate from one?

Originally Posted by Dago

What are forces trained as, light infantry, or airborne, with regard against mech forces? Every force goes through the training don't they? I agree they can't hold ground, but can they hold the ground for a little bit, with air support?

No.

Originally Posted by troung

They would have to be pretty close to Iran to base AH-64s.

And Iran has the means to counter, with many assets, against attack helos.

Two or three companies of commandos, deep inside Iran, surrounded by Iranian troops in defensive positions with increasing numbers of Iranians joining the fight - they would get smashed.

Honestly, I think they could hold there own. It would be time though, of course any force would get smashed whether it be SEALS/DELTA/Rangers if just stranded out in the deserts for days. It all has to do with time.

Numbers and firepower would be on the Iranian side and would only grow by the hour.

Yes.

The need to carry troops, fuel and weapons for the helicopters and such would cut into the load carrying capability of a dozen C-130s.

Initially, they would need securing of the runway. Without a runway, nothing is possible. Once it was secured, they could bring in larger aircraft with personal.

On home turf, with their own air force intact, their arrival could make all of the difference. A few helicopters/transports get shot down, a FOB is cluster bombed, or the commandos get bombed and the entire focus would change from Qom to trying to get people out.

Very easily could.

Nope they wouldn't be sending any commandos on a raid which could cause them to lose a thousand guys.

We'll they could be desperate, they don't want Iran to possess the bomb. Anything is possible.

Driving up humvees, light infantry, with 120mm mortars would be enough to put that base totally on the defensive and change their focus from supporting a raid a hundred miles in Iran to protecting themselves and try to keep open to withdraw themselves. With the likely chance of the raiding force getting caught and trapped in Iran the Iraqis would have time to move on helicopter landing strips (to bring AH-64s over Qom and back in theory there would need to be a few on the way). The Iraqis have combat experience and numbers tell, especially if the raiding force gets stuck overnight in Iran giving them plenty of time to move battalion after battalion against them.

It's isolated. And don't think that such forces, would be on the defense sitting around the base. That's not how it works, they would be conducting raids, light helo insert, outside of the FOB.

So many things could go wrong - Iraqis moving on landing strips, the Iranians being reasonably ready, the Iranian air force showing up, accidents - any of them could mess the whole thing up. And they have a thin margin because of their own rather limited long distance capability. Small numbers of Israelis trapped deep in hostile territory reliant on a minuscule number of transports and tankers. Leave a few hundred dead Israelis in Iran and there would be a major political crisis in Israel. We are not talking about the WW2 Soviet Army which was prepared to lose large numbers of men to win battles. I think people are over-enamored with special forces raids...

The United States did the same thing, only farther away, less cover, in the middle of Tehran. Shows what people do when desperate.

Typo? Three times over? I think not. If you can't spell, then you can't write an op order that would pass review by the exec officer before the commander even reads it. That's the START of my experience. Writing is a skill I began learning in grade school, honed in high school, polished as an undergrad and refined for brevity as a grad student. In the interim I've written lesson plans, student guides, officer evaluations, intelligence summaries and a myriad other military-mandated correspondence.

You?

Experience? I've twelve years of experience in the military as an artillery officer developing plans and moving troops, equipment, and logistics to wherever deemed necessary to accomplish a mission...or advising my commander why it can't be done and betting my bars in the process.

You?

I am NOT a special operations specialist nor am I an aviator with the planning skills requisite for designing and executing joint intra-theatre SOF missions supported by air force elements. No way, shape or form. That makes me, given my other experiences, entirely competent to be certain that YOU aren't either. Therefore when I suggest that you STFU, you might listen because you truly are out of your element.''

"'There are gaps in detection in Jordanian airspace, and there [sic] air defenses capabilities are limited. If an Israeli force is detected they aren't going to interdict a much more overwhelming Israeli force. They don't have the capabilities with there [sic] F-16's. Saudi Arabia on the other hand has a much more capable air force, but there are still gaps, as Saudi Araba is a huge and isolated in the north. Syria as well as gaps in there [sic] air defense sites as well...'

So, no gaps? I take it you disagree with this post?"

Ummm...needless to say. Whether gaps exist in Jordan, Iraq, KSA and/or Syria-or not, you've not remotely demonstrated the competency to address the issues here and elsewhere with any credibility. That's a fact. These musings do a real disservice to the men and women whose hard work and dedication would be required to make successful any enterprise this improbable.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

They wanted a positive ID.

You can say that, but you can go and think if they really needed a BIG boom needed to flatten that building.

Originally Posted by Doktor

You can say that, but you can go and think if they really needed a BIG boom needed to flatten that building.

That objective was achieved at TORA BORA. This objective was to get that man.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

That objective was achieved at TORA BORA. This objective was to get that man.

I think it would have been politically worse if instead of small skirmishes and one helo down, the place would go kaboom. That was my point.

The objective was the man. Not the HQ. The HQ was destroyed at Tora Bora. The objective was deemed acceptable to risk men and machine instead of just bombing it.

AQ would not be above using fakes as the real thing, ie stand ins claiming to be OBL and with no body, no one can be certain that the fake is a fake.

It is 5 a.m. over here maybe I am not very clear as I am drinking my first coffee.

Anyway, point taken.

Some years ago on a WW2 board I was engaged in a lengthy debate about the feasibility of 'operation Sealion'. One of the points that repeatedly cropped up was the ability of the Germans to insert paratroops behind British lines & capture airfields. A very wise poster made a good point about the use of such forces that is relevant here. He pointed out that once you drop such forces well behind enemy lines you immediately shift operational objectives from whatever they were to making sure the paras don't all get rounded up & killed. This is fine if you are well enough equipped to get to them in good time, but the more isolated those troops are the more the operation becomes about them. Rather than being an element of a wider plan they can become its focus.

This strikes me as an example of this. Given that Israel has to destroy multiple sites this sort of op can only ever be one part of the whole (unless we are dropping multiple teams in multiple locations - surely too fantastic for even this poster). However, the requirement involves violating the airspace of several nations, invading & occupying a bit of Iraq with forces heavy enough to deploy artillery & then sending further forces on to Iran. That is 2 air bridges, one of them quite long, and two forces deployed, both vulnerable to heavier forces on the ground. One of those air bridges is going to have to be in pretty heavy use flying in fuel etc for thsoe choppers, the other will be vulnerable when the Iranians work out it is there. Hands up all those who think the IAF will be spending most of its time & resources protecting its two deployed forces & airbridges? Anyone sane think there will be enough left over to strike the other facilities that need striking? We've got some military guys here, how am I doing? On the right track?

Seems to me that the moment you start setting up bases at the end of long air bridges the whole operation shifts from destroying Iranian facilities to making sure you don't lose hundreds of IDF personnel in a failed attempt to blow something up. An even worse idea than trying to just blow stuff up with whatever the IAF can get to Iran & back.

If the Soviets planned this campaign...

They'd send the needed amount of men (2-3x just in case) and forget them. If they come back home they will get medals.