Another Scientist is blown up...

**Officer of Engineers** · 17 Jan 12,, 06:01

Originally Posted by RoccoR

But it is very unclear, if Iran is actually engaged in such a program. I am given to understand that "we" (the US) don't actually have any information that pins this down. (Rhetoric aside!)

In actuality, we have definiete proof that Iran HAD engaged in nuclear weapons research upto and including the purchase of both a Chinese nuclear warhead blueprint and a Pakistani warhead blueprint ... all evidence from Pakistan herself.

Wether Iran is still continuing her research is the open question both Qom did not add to Iran's claims of innocense.

**RoccoR** · 17 Jan 12,, 12:58

Officer of Engineers, et al,

Yes, this is true. But what this says means something different.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

In actuality, we have definiete proof that Iran HAD engaged in nuclear weapons research upto and including the purchase of both a Chinese nuclear warhead blueprint and a Pakistani warhead blueprint ... all evidence from Pakistan herself.

Wether Iran is still continuing her research is the open question both Qom did not add to Iran's claims of innocense.

(COMMENT)

Several points have to be made.

First, relative to the Chinese purchase (attempt), the time frame is all wrong. This transaction was made in the mid-1980's and is covered in the 2011 NIE (supra). However, it does appear that several Chinese firms were, at one time, assisting Iran in missile technology. To what end, is still unknown. But a weapons system is so complex, that just about any research and development in that areas could be said to be applicable.
Second, the warhead transactions of the near recent past were NOT "weaponized." This is still yet to be accomplish by the Iranians, and we don't know if the Iranians have yet, that ability or material. There are several unconfirmed rumors that the original target date for weaponization could be March 2012. But the normal testing of critical nuclear weapons design has not been detected.
The sale of the KH-55 (Ukrainian sources) is troubling, but not as significant as a first impression might have. They are older (20 years old+), having a limited range (--- maybe 2000-3000 miles max), of a cruise missile design. The records on maintenance is dubious at best and no one is sure if they are still functional and no tests have been observed. These were transferred without a weaponized warhead (conventional or nuclear).
The transfer of critical nuclear weapons design information (CNWDI) from Pakistan to Iran is well documented and known in US Intellligence Circles as the AQ Khan [Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)] debacle (1989-2000). This is also taken into account in the 2011 NIE (supra).
In the latter part of 2009, Iran did successfully tested a version of the BM-25 missile (1300 mile range). It was a launch system and missile guidance test with no explosive warhead. This particular version can have the range doubled by adding a booster unit. The importance of this version test is that it can carry a much larger warhead than a missile similar to the KH-55.

The importance here is that nothing new has been discovered since the publication of the 2011 NIE. Thus it would not alter the DNI summation that: “We do not know…if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.”

The IRGC-QF and the Iranian MIOS will continue to collect on CNWDI and purchase functional technology as it may become available. This is a normal function of positive intelligence activities; not unique to Iran. This does not mean that Iran has an active and coordinated Nuclear Weapons Program. It just means that they scavenge what has been proliferated by Nuclear Capable nations. And scavenging activities are a symptom of a non-existent or troubled program grasping at any opportunity to cobble together something.

Most Respectfully,
R

**RoccoR** · 17 Jan 12,, 13:19

Officer of Engineers, et al,

Short addendum.

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

we have definiete proof that Iran HAD engaged in nuclear weapons research .

(POST SCRIPT)

The previous comment is not intended to suggest that your observations are wrong in any way. It is - but to suggest - that we don't inadvertently jump to a conclusion that is not in evidence.

One does not have to actually see a Nuclear Weapon in order to deduce a Nuclear capability. Such nuclear capable activities have very distinctive footprints - and it is through the careful analysis of these tells, that we can detect activity, preparations, logistics, and training that is consistent with and unique to nuclear capable activities.

It is understood that General Mohammad Ali Jafari, Commander, IRGC-QF, has promised his command a nuclear capability sanctioned by the Supreme Leader. If any element within the IRGC-QF were to exhibit these nuclear capable unique tells and footprints, the paradigm would shift significantly.

Most Respectfully,
R

S2 · 17 Jan 12,, 15:17

"...It just means that they scavenge what has been proliferated by Nuclear Capable nations. And scavenging activities are a symptom of a non-existent or troubled program grasping at any opportunity to cobble together something."

For somebody so concerned about miscalculation this comment reeks of willful ignorance yet absent the thousands of hours of analysis contradicting it.

Your position on Iraq is well-known-a mistake. You ignore that Iraq-under sanctions, defeated and without a peace treaty- could have removed any ambiguity associated with their involvement in WMD development by fully cooperating with the IAEA. For reasons known only to Saddam and those closest to him Iraq didn't avail themselves of this option.

Now neither does Iran. Nor do they withdraw from the NPT. Instead, they've played a dangerous game of bluff and obfuscation that's certainly intended to deceive their ultimate objective. No intelligence system is perfect but I'm satisfied, as I was with Iraq, of malfeasance and duplicity regarding the most dangerous possible weapons on earth. Nothing heretofore with Iran suggests that, should YOU be wrong, those weapons would be developed and handed over to responsible hands.

In the absence of clarity sufficient to satisfy you (I'm uncertain such exists) I like our chances. I can only hope, like you, that such hostility is prosecuted with all the means necessary to scour Iran of any near/mid term possibility of this threat's re-emergence.

**RoccoR** · 17 Jan 12,, 15:33

S2, et al,

I respect your opinion. And again - agree to disagree.

Originally Posted by S2

"...It just means that they scavenge what has been proliferated by Nuclear Capable nations. And scavenging activities are a symptom of a non-existent or troubled program grasping at any opportunity to cobble together something."

For somebody so concerned about miscalculation this comment reeks of willful ignorance yet absent the thousands of hours of analysis contradicting it.

(COMMENT)

While I am always a bit leery of the NIE, I think this time I will side with the DNI on this issue; as previously cited in references (supra).

There are other reasons that Iran may want to make it appear that they have a covert program.

Most Respectfully,
R

**RoccoR** · 17 Jan 12,, 21:04

Dreadnought, et al,

There is something else behind the killing of the various Physicist in Iran. It is not the scientist that is important. That doesn't retard the design or construction of a Nuclear Device.

Originally Posted by Dreadnought

*Ironic huh?.........

Iran makes arrests in killing of nuclear scientist

The West believes Iran is building nuclear weapons. Iran denies that.

(COMMENT)

First a true (No Crap Story).

In 1964 the U.S. Army decided to see just how difficult it was (to build a bomb). They hired two professors that had Ph.Ds in physics, but no experience with nuclear weapons or access to nuclear secrets. The two were given the task of designing an atomic bomb using only information available to the general public. It took them roughly two years, but in the end they designed an implosion style weapon that could have been made in a local machine shop which could have produced an explosion similar to the Hiroshima bomb.

SOURCE: The UnMuseum - How to Build an Atomic Bomb

Any country or organization that has a decent crop of Physicists, and Iran fits this bill, with time and money, can design, fashion the components and construct a device of some magnitude, in a couple of years (probably less now).

The true problem is the acquisition of the fuel and prototype testing. Our guys had a serious problem with this. Uranium 235 is very rare. And the Enrichment Process (separating the it from other isotopes) is the key factor. Build the device, you can do in your garage. Fueling the device requires a major factory. Or, you start with Plutonium and process it. But that is, as well, difficult to come by and even more difficult to work with. Just a whiff of it will take you down. Basically this is the "Breeder Reactor" issue.

If the Iranians wanted a device, then they probably have them already. They just need fuel. With the amount of time they have had to work on the problem, they could have a half-dozen or so devices. That portion of the project is easy.

After that, they need a delivery system. As I said before, the BM-25 might just be big enough to carry the load, with a modified warhead.

Then - you need to either enrich the fuel yourself -- of scavenge for it. The most important aspect is the fuel and not the scientist.

With the exception of the fueling issue, the rest of it can be cobbled together in relative easy. We've known that you could build a bomb in a garage since before my Vietnam Days. There were rumors of the Soviet "Suitcase Bomb" for decades. When I was a young CI Agent, this was the biggest boogieman. Over the last decade, I've spent about seven years in the Middle East and Persian Gulf Region. Today's boogieman is the terrorist with fissionable materials. With fissionable materials, you do not need a Nuclear Weapons Program. Just a couple of reasonably good scientist and a machine shop.

It is fortunate for us, that the manufacture of fissionable materials is so very difficult. And that is what the UN Inspection Regiment is really looking for. And it takes a lot of effort to make it. But if the scavengers find weapons grade plutonium on the open market, then --- it could be easily hidden. That is what "Proliferation" is really all about.

If the Scientist were critical kills, then it had something to do with the manufacture or acquisition of fissionable materials. But if the Scientist were killed as subterfuge, then it is something else.

Most Respectfully,
R