Thread: Endgame in Iran?

Back to the topic....

I don't know how reliable these sources are, but if these reports are authentic we might be seeing the begining of an interesting episode in Iran.

In 24 hours, what has been labeled “street protesting” for new presidential elections has morphed into an earnest and violent revolution to overthrow the Muslim mullahs who rule Iran.

It is difficult to verify, but factions in the Iranian military may be breaking rank to join the people’s cause. A group calling itself the National Iranian Armed Resistance Forces (NIRU) posted a news release on an Iranian protest website at the end of the day’s violence.


We, a number of Officers, Soldiers and personnel of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, hereby declare our readiness for rise to the armed defense of our nation against the forces of the criminal, illegitimate, transgressing and occupying current Government of Iran, and hereby inform our brothers and sisters serving with the armed security forces of Iran, invite them to join us, request their support and ask them to provide cover for us in this moral & national act. A special request for support & cooperation goes to our brothers of the Military Police.


The NIRU says it intends to secure Iranian radio and television stations, the Parliament,and the courts, will hold local elections and referendums within 3 months and new presidential elections within 9 months, will dissolve the murderous “Basij” plainclothes police and establish a new national police force.

Protection and firepower from even a few factions of the military could signal a critical momentum change for the Iranian people, who by law cannot own weapons.

Complete coverage will be sparse in mainstream media outlets, as western media are not allowed any kind of meaningful access to the country, and their coverage was anemic at best.

PBS “Frontline” has a Tehran Bureau posting videos, picture and frequent updates, many of which are cell phone images sent via Twitter and immediately posted to Facebook pages and on YouTube. Videos showing protestors burning police cars, attacking police vans and releasing prisoners, breaking up sidewalks and throwing concrete at police are here. They are graphic.

A young man died from a head wound during a huge crowd rally in Tehran Sunday.

The bureau reports confrontations all Sunday in the cities of Tehran, Qom, Tabriz in northwest Iran, Isfahan and Najafabad in central Iran and Shiraz in the south:


Iranian security forces opened fire on protesters during anti-government demonstrations on Sunday, killing at least nine people and arresting more than 300 demonstrators in what marked the largest and most violent anti-government protests in the Islamic Republic since the summer, according to witnesses, opposition websites and state media.

Thousands of Basij militia forces, police and anti-riot forces armed with guns, batons, pepper gas and tear gas clashed with protesters in squares throughout the Iranian capital. Protestors fought back fiercely, at times tearing out slabs of concrete from city sidewalks and smashing it to hurl stones at security forces, witnesses said.


One of the dead is reportedly a nephew of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the presidential candidate who is believed by the populace to be the true winner of the June presidential election.

Amnesty International reported 3 weeks ago that “human rights violations in Iran are now as bad as at any time in the past 20 years.” The agency found Iran has been allowing rape, torture and murder of at least 4,000 jailed demonstrators since last spring. Some citizens were tracked through their computer IP addresses and cell phone numbers and rounded up long after the demonstrations had been brutally quashed by the government.

The Sunday violence in Iran drew its inspiration from the heavy symbolism of the religious observance of Ashoura, coupled with the one-week anniversary of the death of a Muslim imam who was a harsh critic of the Iranian regime. If the Iranian military will get behind the brave people in the streets, this revolution may have a much better chance for success than it did last spring.

In the meantime, the President of the United States is golfing and goofing in Hawaii, much too busy to give news conferences to address terrorism on American jets or Iranians murdered by their own police as they fight for democracy.

The London Telegraph wrote Sunday evening: “Iranians are dying for Freedom—Where is Barack Obama?”

Link

It seems it is all chaos in Iran.



More graphic clips here

The London Telegraph wrote Sunday evening: “Iranians are dying for Freedom—Where is Barack Obama?”

'Playing golf, .... ... ... with friends')

Originally Posted by S-2

"And I'm not convinced an air-strike would work..."

It would be a sustained air campaign carried over a series of raids and, likely, an extended period of time. Key is knocking down the IADS and keeping it down while neutralizing all retaliatory means to the greatest extent possible.

Once done, game on until they submit to a regime of unannounced inspections at will.

S2:

Quite apart from the success or failure a of preemptive attack by Israel on Iran, I worry that any attack will lead to a conflagration between the Muslim and non-Mulsim world.

The London Telegraph wrote Sunday evening: “Iranians are dying for Freedom—Where is Barack Obama?”

Originally Posted by Zinja

'Playing golf, .... ... ... with friends')

Doing what any US President with a brain should do - back the protesters rhetorically & keep any other visible hint of US involvement out of the picture. Any credible hint of US involvement here & the protest movement is dealt a severe, perhaps mortal blow.

As in the election, this must be about Iran & Iranians. Obama did the smart thing then & the movement has survived & perhaps even thrived. I'm yet to see any credible suggestions as to what else Obama should be doing, just cheap shots about what he is doing Using this for partisan point scoring won't help anyone, least of all Iranians.

Obama, West stand behind Iran protesters

December 29, 2009 - 9:04AM

AFP

US President Barack Obama has demanded Iran free protesters and he has told the opposition that history is on its side as he led Western nations in denouncing the Islamic regime's deadly crackdown.

"The United States joins with the international community in strongly condemning the violent and unjust suppression of innocent Iranian citizens," Obama said in Hawaii where he is on vacation.

"We call for the immediate release of all who have been unjustly detained within Iran," Obama said.

The president promised to stand behind Iranians during the "extraordinary events," saying that he was "confident that history will be on the side of those who seek justice".

"The decision of Iran's leaders to govern through fear and tyranny will not continue," he said. "It's telling when governments fear the aspirations of their own people more than the power of any other nation."

At least eight people were killed as security forces used tear gas, batons and eventually live rounds to push back thousands who had taken to the street, according to opposition websites. Authorities were also said to have detained more than a dozen dissidents.

Obama has walked a fine line with Iran by seeking dialogue with the Islamic regime on its controversial nuclear program, leading his critics to urge him to take a more robust approach.

"Violence in Iran continues... Where is the administration?" Republican Senator John McCain, Obama's rival in last year's presidential election, wrote on Twitter. "We must stand up for the Iranian people."

Obama in his address stressed that the violence in Iran was "not about the United States", which is vilified by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other conservative elements.

"It's about the Iranian people and their aspirations for justice and a better life for themselves," he said.

Obama and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband both noted that Iranian forces resorted to force on Ashura, a sacred day for Shi'ite Muslims which marks the martyrdom of seventh-century Imam Hussein.

"It is therefore particularly disturbing to hear accounts of the lack of restraint by the security forces," Miliband said in London.

Miliband called on Iran to respect the rights of its citizens, a demand echoed by the European Union.

"Brutal force against, and the arbitrary detentions of demonstrators constitute gross violations of these basic human rights," the EU presidency said in a statement from Stockholm.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the right to free expression through peaceful demonstrations "must not be restricted or suppressed by violence.

"I condemn the recent violent clashes in Iran in which people died due to the unacceptable actions of the security forces," she said.

France warned Tehran its actions would "lead nowhere" and urged a negotiated political settlement.

"At a time when the death toll is rising, France again expresses its deep concern and condemns the arbitrary arrests and violence carried out against ordinary protesters," foreign ministry spokesman Bernard Valero said.

French relations with Iran have been hit by the trial of 24-year-old teacher Clotilde Reiss, who is accused of having supported the June opposition protests against Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election.

Russia, which has the strongest ties with Iran of any major power, raised its concerns in a more mildly worded statement, calling for restraint.

"We are worried about the events that have taken place in Iran in recent days," the foreign ministry said.

"In our opinion, the main thing in this situation is to show restraint, look for and find compromises on the basis of law, undertake political efforts to prevent further escalation of the internal confrontation."

© 2009 AFP

Obama, West stand behind Iran protesters

Originally Posted by JAD_333

S2:

Quite apart from the success or failure a of preemptive attack by Israel on Iran, I worry that any attack will lead to a conflagration between the Muslim and non-Mulsim world.

There is a part of me that wonders if some of the more unhinged members of the government on Iran might actually want this. It was certainly what OBL was after with 9/11 (well, one of the things).

For you defenders of Iran, FIND ME ONE MILITARY REASON FOR IRAN TO GET NUKES!