Thread: Endgame in Iran?

Originally Posted by Ararat

Do Iranians fighting for their freedom and showing their reactions to years of oppression have a leader?

It can not be Mousavi.......that is no change.

Mousavi is a change, and him or someone like him may be the only change possible in the short term. Just as the Shah didn't fall until many of the urban liberals who should have supported him most finally withdrew, so Khatamei & A-jad won't fall until at least part of the conservative rural population & clerical class desert them.

Violence probably isn't going to do the job either. The state just has too many options here. Those who would administer the violence are probably not going to change sides in enough numbers to even the odds, so enough of them have to be persuaded to sit the fight out. If they see a radical revolution in the making they might decide it is better to fight.

Sahabi could hardly be called an Islamist, but he makes a good point:

In the first week of January came an admonition. Ezzatollah Sahabi, a veteran opposition figure, issued an open letter in which he warned the green movement not to slide towards “radicalism and violence”. To excitable exiles who detect shades of 1978-79 in today’s convulsions, he advised against unrealistic hopes: “A revolution in today’s Iran”, he wrote, “is neither possible nor desirable.” If moderate clerics and conservatives were forced to choose between a movement of radicals and the status quo, he predicted, they would choose stability.

Iran isn't magically going to transform into a western-style democracy. The first aim has to be to remove the current regime & increase personal & political freedom. Keep in mind that the Shah wasn't immediately replaced by the mullahs. That took time & Saddam (among other things). Mousavi or someone similar is a step in the right direction & he might be the only step possible in the forseeable future.

Iran and its region: A supreme leader at bay | The Economist

Iranian nuclear professor dies in bomb blast - reports


Prof Mohammadi was killed as he was leaving his home, media say
An Iranian nuclear physics professor has been killed in a bomb attack in the capital Tehran, Iranian media say.
They say that Masoud Mohammadi died after a remotely controlled bomb exploded near his home.
Iranian media describe him as a "devoted revolutionary professor" killed by "anti-revolutionary" groups.
It comes at a time of heightened tension in Iran, following June's disputed presidential election and mass protests against the government.
'Arrogant powers'
Prof Mohammadi of Tehran University "was killed in a booby-trapped motorbike blast" in the city's northern Qeytariyeh district, Press TV said.

Police sealed off the area and launched an investigation
It showed pictures from the scene of the blast, saying windows in the nearby buildings were shattered by the force of the explosion.
Local media reports say the bomb was attached to a motorcycle parked outside Prof Mhammadi's home, although onoe agency said it was planted in a rubbish bin.
State broadcaster Irib said Prof Mohammadi "was martyred this morning in a terrorist act by anti-revolutionary and arrogant powers' elements".
The BBC's Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne says Iran usually refers to its enemies in the West as "the arrogant powers".
Police sealed off the area and launched an investigation into the incident.
No-one has claimed responsibility for the blast and at this stage there could only be speculation for possible motives of the attack, correspondents say.
There has been much controversy over Iran's nuclear activities.
Tehran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful energy purposes, but the US and other Western nations suspect it of seeking to build nuclear weapons.
In December, Tehran accused Saudi Arabia of detaining an Iranian nuclear scientist and handing him over the US.
Saudi Arabia denied the claim.

beeb


I wonder who could be behind this?

Its not the West, they already have one defected person with insight into the regime, what the regimes been up to as far as North Korea and Syria are concerned. IMO, Its a night of long knives in Achmadinnerjacket's camp. It just goes to show you that no one is safe in his regime from being silenced.

If the Iranian people believe the tripe this man is writing, I would be surprised. the west wouldn't use a bomb on a motor bike, It would be dropped from about 30,000 feet from a jet and would do a hell of a lot more damage and cause more death then this.

Here's a hint: Trace the explosive residues, its obviously someone that knows the gentlemans day to day patterns and travel habits (either the Basij or another of dinnerjackets flunkies) and fears what he may have to say.

I wonder who that might be since the West would only be concerned with listenening to what he has to say to gather more intell. Not fear what he has to say. I bet dinnerjacket and his friends cant say the same for themselves huh?):P