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Thread: Endgame in Iran?

  1. #136
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    Reuters

    Iran's rulers must compromise with opposition figures to avoid a worsening of the political turmoil, the son of the late dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri said in comments released on Saturday.


    In an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel magazine, Said Montazeri said he hoped Iran's rulers would come to their senses and called on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to resign.


    "Things can't go on for long like this," Montazeri was quoted as saying in an interview conducted by mobile phone from his home in Qom. It was unclear when the interview took place.

    "I think the future structure of our society is not so important. It could be an Islamic Republic, a secular republic, or as far as I am concerned, even a monarchy. The main thing is that people can live in freedom and in prosperity," he said. Anti-government protests have flared repeatedly since a disputed presidential election last June, throwing Iran into its most serious internal crisis in the Islamic Republic's 30-year history.

    In the last week, there have been bloody confrontations, arrests and hardline demands for the strong suppression of opponents of the government.

    Asked by Der Spiegel if he expected a bloodbath, Montazeri said: "I hope it won't come to that. I still hope the rulers will come to their senses and make compromises and take the path of national reconciliation. If they don't, my country will be in a much worse state in one year's time than it is today."

    Montazeri also insisted that Ahmadinejad should resign.

    "The people responsible must apologise for their wrongdoings and repression in the last months. That would be the condition for a continuation of the Islamic Republic. And after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has resigned, the presidential office must be handed to the candidate who won most votes at the election -- Mr (Mirhossein) Mousavi," said Montazeri.

    Opposition leader Mousavi alleges the June presidential vote he lost to Ahmadinejad was rigged. The government denies this.

    Mousavi said on Friday he was ready to die for his reformist campaign, defying hardline calls for his arrest or execution, and demanded the release of political prisoners, respect for press freedom and a change in the election law.

    Mohsen Rezaie, a conservative presidential contender in June, urged Iran's leaders on Friday to consider Mousavi's demands as a "constructive" solution to reduce tension, the semi-official ILNA news agency reported on Saturday.

    Rezaie is a secretary of the powerful arbitration body, the Expediency Council, led by influential former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

    Iranian security forces clashed with supporters of Montazeri's father after the cleric died in December at the age of 87, according to reformist websites.






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  2. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by kuku View Post
    With the petrochemical industry gone...
    Don't be so sure that the Petroleum industry will a target. For one there is significant foreign investment in Iran's petroleum industry. For one, Iran lacks the technical prowess to develop their fields to modern standards & output. This means lots & lots of investment.

    That's not to say other areas of the Industry where it comes to distribution will be targeted.
    Ego Numquam

  3. #138
    Senior Contributor kuku's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chunder View Post
    Don't be so sure that the Petroleum industry will a target. For one there is significant foreign investment in Iran's petroleum industry. For one, Iran lacks the technical prowess to develop their fields to modern standards & output. This means lots & lots of investment.

    That's not to say other areas of the Industry where it comes to distribution will be targeted.
    Well if someone wants to attack powerlines, waterlines etc. etc. to shut down the nuclear reactor, it seems obvious that they will target the industry, the industry produces a lot of products that can be used to produce energy (negating attacks on electric grids and all)
    cheers

  4. #139
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kuku View Post
    Well if someone wants to attack powerlines, waterlines etc. etc. to shut down the nuclear reactor, it seems obvious that they will target the industry, the industry produces a lot of products that can be used to produce energy (negating attacks on electric grids and all)
    Pretty sure it needs a bit of power to do all that funky refining. I think this is one of those targets that will be on the 'if we can' list, rather than the 'we really must' list.

    I'm not sure how much petrol it takes to run the a spare generator for a nuclear power plant for what length of time, but I've been around the generator required to power a hospital on 'emergency' for a short time. It is the size of a small house & I don't think they would want to run it for too long.
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  5. #140
    Senior Contributor kuku's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    Pretty sure it needs a bit of power to do all that funky refining. I think this is one of those targets that will be on the 'if we can' list, rather than the 'we really must' list.

    I'm not sure how much petrol it takes to run the a spare generator for a nuclear power plant for what length of time, but I've been around the generator required to power a hospital on 'emergency' for a short time. It is the size of a small house & I don't think they would want to run it for too long.
    I ve worked for this plant
    Planet Honda
    and they used to run on generators as there was no reliable electricity supply.
    cheers

  6. #141
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    Air Tasking Orders for Desert Storm state POL and related products, pipelines, and storage facilities (POL being as Potrolium, Oils & Lubricants) were targets.

    Not the actual refineries themselves.

    It's aimed at preventing the use of oil in the immediate term.

    Because they have no fuel supply & Electrical supply operation of Refineries is a moot point.

    Sorry I did not explain adequately, should not have commented, it's not my field!)
    Ego Numquam

  7. #142
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    Targets

    Oil facilities and fields almost certainly won't be targeted. the Iranian Army likely won't be targeted. Unlikely that the USAF would take on the entire Iranian power grid. We could but not all would need to be shut down.

    Comms may go. Bridges may be dropped. Lot of possibilities that could have a negligible or only modest immediate impact on the populace. That's both good and bad.

    Some significant pain may be necessary.
    "This aggression will not stand, man!"
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  8. #143
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  9. #144
    tankie Military Professional tankie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    Amadinnerjacket )
    Ahhhhhhhh so you do read huh






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    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    Why should Iranians demonstrate when US soldiers are killed? Im confident that the majority of Iranians do not support the I.R’s interference in Iraq .... ....
    Im being accused of being 'insensitive, immoral and selfish' for merely saying Iranians should secure its own freedom, the US shouldn't be obligated to intervene. Aryjet's accusation seems to sterms from the allegation that im not being sensitive to the suffering Iranians which has resulted in the untimely dates of 8 people. I have a problem with that. Where were the same Iranians in the untimely deaths of 4 000 american service personnel, mainly killed by weapons made by their country? To cry for American interevention now because they are on the receiving end when they were silent when americans were dying, to me is very dishonest to put it mildly. To just say 'majority of Iranians do not support the I.R' does not cut it for me. We are not just talking about Americans only but massive numbers of Iraqis as well, and it was known to the very same Iranian public that their bombs were responsible but they did and said nothing. It was the Americans that protested against its own gvt in the Vietnam war, remember?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    .... but im sure neither do Iranians support the occupation of that country, especially now given that the pretext to that war was based on lies and false assumptions.
    We can quibble about the rights and wrongs of the US going to war in Iraq but its occupation is very legal and justified. Its occupation was sanctioned by the UN and for a good reason. After the UN mandate, a bilateral agreement was reached by two sovereign nations for US troops to continue its occupation. Im sorry to say this to you, but it is not for the Iranians to say whether US troops on Iraq soil is legitimate or not. The Iraqis have their own right to make their own decisions and they decided last year that the US troops should stay in Iraq. To say 'neither do Iranians support the occupation of that country', is frankly non of their business.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    However, i can say that when 9/11 2001 occurred large crowds of Iranians came out onto the streets to hold candle-lit vigils for the American people.
    Was that before or after their little secret was exposed by Alireza Jafarzadeh? Would they have held those vigils if it was after? I can't help but wonder.
    Last edited by Zinja; 04 Jan 10, at 22:00.

  11. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    Im being accused of being 'insensitive, immoral and selfish' for merely saying Iranians should secure its own freedom, the US shouldn't be obligated to intervene. Aryjet's accusation seems to sterms from the allegation that im not being sensitive to the suffering Iranians which has resulted in the untimely dates of 8 people. I have a problem with that. Where were the same Iranians in the untimely deaths of 4 000 american service personnel, mainly killed by weapons made by their country? To cry for American interevention now because they are on the receiving end when they were silent when americans were dying, to me is very dishonest to put it mildly.
    You seem very muddled and confused. The Iranian opposition neither wants nor expects any intervention on their behalf from foreigners. What they would like, however, is for the World around them not to recognize, deal with or appease the government of Ahmadinejad, because he and his government is not representative of the Iranian people or nation. He represents a faction within the Islamic Republic, that is ultra-hardline, corrupt and repressive towards any dissent. And one that has now taken control of the affairs of government, by fraud and by force. The faction is essentially now being led by the IRGC, and is backed by the 'Supreme Leader'. Millions of Iranians openly oppose them, millions more silently oppose them. By recognizing and dealing with Ahamdinejad and with the Islamic Republic, the World is only strengthening this faction and is working against the Iranian people's internal struggle against dictatorship. This is where the hypocrisy over the whole standoff with Iran lies. One i pointed out to you earlier which no one here is able to comment on; that being Europe's numerous trade and other dealings with Iran and its dictatorship.

    Anyway your point about US servicemen killed in Iraq is stupid. There are (were) multiple Iraqi insurgent outfits and they were supplied with arms from numerous sources. More Iraqi and Afghan civilians have been killed by US forces than Americans have died in those countries. Much more. Does anyone really expect Americans to demonstrate against this? No, not really. It would be nice if they did, but everyone knows that they wont en-mass. Similarly, Iranians are not obliged to protest when US soldiers are killed in Iraq. As you're right, its none of their business and not their responsibility.

    Was that before or after their little secret was exposed by Alireza Jafarzadeh? Would they have held those vigils if it was after? I can't help but wonder.
    On the very same evening Iranians became aware of 9/11.

  12. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    You seem very muddled and confused. The Iranian opposition neither wants nor expects any intervention on their behalf from foreigners.
    Hey, you are the one that hijaked a discussion between me and Aryajet, and in the discussion Aryajet was clearly advocating for US intervention. I was arguing for a non interventional american involved and Aryajet accused me of being 'insensitive, immoral and selfish'. It was then that i took him on that accusation that you hijaked the conversation. Read the posts between me and Aryjet. So, yes, Aryjet was advocating for American intervention. If you are advocating for something else then thats another thing altogether, but my aguement was towards Aryan's point. Do you still think im 'muddled and confused'?

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s;706961What they would like, however, is for the World around them not to recognize, deal with or appease the government of Ahmadinejad, because he and his government is not representative of the Iranian people or nation. He represents [I
    a faction[/I] within the Islamic Republic, that is ultra-hardline, corrupt and repressive towards any dissent. And one that has now taken control of the affairs of government, by fraud and by force. The faction is essentially now being led by the IRGC, and is backed by the 'Supreme Leader'. Millions of Iranians openly oppose them, millions more silently oppose them. By recognizing and dealing with Ahamdinejad and with the Islamic Republic, the World is only strengthening this faction and is working against the Iranian people's internal struggle against dictatorship. This is where the hypocrisy over the whole standoff with Iran lies. One i pointed out to you earlier which no one here is able to comment on; that being Europe's numerous trade and other dealings with Iran and its dictatorship.
    That is a different matter. I concur with you on that, Europe should not be trading with this regime. But my exchange with Aryan was about the US not Europe. You are shooting at the wrong person.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    Anyway your point about US servicemen killed in Iraq is stupid.
    Be very careful with that statement.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    There are (were) multiple Iraqi insurgent outfits and they were supplied with arms from numerous sources.
    To say multiple Iraqi insurgency were responsible to absolve Iran does not cut it. Iran was single handadly responsible for arming an entire militia (Mahdi army). Almost all armour piercing roadside bombs were either Iranian technology or supplied directly by Iran. So Iran killed and maimed American servicemen and they delighted in it. That on its own should have been good enough reason for the US to bomb the Iranian mullahs till kingdom come.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    More Iraqi and Afghan civilians have been killed by US forces than Americans have died in those countries. Much more. Does anyone really expect Americans to demonstrate against this?
    There is a difference between targeting an enemy and civilians suffer in the process, and targeting civilians to get to the enemy. Only a depreved mind would think like that. And in the case of civilians being caught up in the fight the US owns up and even apologises because it is not US's policy to kill civilians.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    No, not really. It would be nice if they did, but everyone knows that they wont en-mass. Similarly, Iranians are not obliged to protest when US soldiers are killed in Iraq. As you're right, its none of their business and not their responsibility.
    Again you are firing off to the wrong person. The context of my response was towards Aryajet.

    Quote Originally Posted by 1980s View Post
    On the very same evening Iranians became aware of 9/11.
    Oh please do not start deception here, Alireza Jafarzadeh revellations came on the 14th of August 2002, almost a year after 9/11.

  13. #148
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Iranian panel denies Kerry visit to Tehran

    Iranian panel denies Kerry visit to TehranJanuary 5, 2010 11:17 a.m. EST


    Tehran, Iran (CNN) -- An Iranian parliamentary committee has denied a request by U.S. Sen. John Kerry to visit Tehran, according to reports from Iran.

    Kerry had requested a visit in December, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported.

    The request was discussed and rejected by Iran's Foreign Relations Committee of the Parliament, according to Tabnak, a news Web site linked to past Iranian presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaie.

    It is unclear if this committee has the final say on whether Kerry can visit Tehran. Kerry, D-Massachusetts, is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

    The United States and Iran ended diplomatic relations in April 1980, following Iran's Islamic Revolution.

    President Obama has made gestures toward re-establishing a dialogue with Iran, but in recent months, the Obama administration has sharpened its tone because of concerns about Iran's nuclear program.

    Tehran says the program is for peaceful purposes, but the United States and other Western nations fear it wants to acquire nuclear weapons.
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  14. #149
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    A good article from the Times that bounces a lot of different views back and forth.

    Iran Shielding Its Nuclear Efforts in Maze of Tunnels - NYTimes.com

  15. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    Iranian panel denies Kerry visit to TehranJanuary 5, 2010 11:17 a.m. EST


    Tehran, Iran (CNN) -- An Iranian parliamentary committee has denied a request by U.S. Sen. John Kerry to visit Tehran, according to reports from Iran.

    Kerry had requested a visit in December, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported.

    The request was discussed and rejected by Iran's Foreign Relations Committee of the Parliament, according to Tabnak, a news Web site linked to past Iranian presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaie.

    It is unclear if this committee has the final say on whether Kerry can visit Tehran. Kerry, D-Massachusetts, is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

    The United States and Iran ended diplomatic relations in April 1980, following Iran's Islamic Revolution.

    President Obama has made gestures toward re-establishing a dialogue with Iran, but in recent months, the Obama administration has sharpened its tone because of concerns about Iran's nuclear program.

    Tehran says the program is for peaceful purposes, but the United States and other Western nations fear it wants to acquire nuclear weapons.
    Good forder for the regime's propaganda. I think the administration here made a miscalculation.

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