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Thread: Time's up on Iran

  1. #31
    Senior Contributor Castellano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    LOL.And your own article meant to confirm that such a doomsday scenario would occur demonstrated that not only had engineers considered such a scenario but that measures had been recommended for the best way to avoid it.
    For your scenario to occur it would require concerted non-action on the part of every electrical engineer in the country, in other words sheer fantasy.
    I have no more interest in continuing with this particular argument (sheer fantasy?) - I think language and words when properly used speak for themselves.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castellano View Post
    The ISIS Analysis phrases it in similar terms to the article, but with a crucial difference in the last sentence :



    http://www.isisnucleariran.org/asset...AEA_Report.pdf
    I respect David Albright to no end but he has some assumptions that is not shared by the rest of the Intel Community, namely, that AQ Khan has sold Iran the best Pak nuclear weapons designs.
    Chimo

  3. #33
    Senior Contributor Castellano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chunder View Post
    Both of which have nothing do do with statements from the IAEA about nation states trying to force the agency into making statements that can easily be misinterpretated for a political outcome - as outrightly stated by the outgoing IAEA head. If you want to go down this path you can cop the flak for it. I have no problem with your views have them, but if you want to air them and not be critisized because the fabric is doped, then your pissing into the proverbial.

    *Sigh* - I have zero doubt whatsoever, that you can't accept an independant, credible non-politisized assessment by the worlds peak nuclear body because arma-weed said 'Israel should be wiped off the map'... thus you continually foist upon others whatever official explanation the Israeli Foreign Ministry has to give as verbatim - however tiring and incredibly missappropriated and innacurate that might be.

    Couple of remarks about all this, when the hell did I ask not to take the heat? I'm quite aware this is the kitchen, thank you very much, and I get into brawls all the damn time around here...and specifically on what you mention, ElBaradei has taking flak from many quarters, for example, last week from Bernard Kouchner, and it is a legitimate, indeed necessary point in the debate:

    French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner has asked publicly why ElBaradei refuses to provide the annexes of the report, in which he said "there are elements which enable us to ask questions about the reality of an atomic bomb," in particular on issues of warheads and transport

    France 24 | Iran nuclear work in spotlight as IAEA begins meet | France 24


    Like another person said, start your "Israeli re-education thread" - that way the rest of us can read interesting stuff that isn't generated by some nutter in some rag in a country that can't make meaningfull steps towards a peace process on the basis of "The land of the bible belongs to the people of the bible".... and have to put up with the onerous task of hypothesised fallacy - then not be able to take the critisism, which btw, is completely justified in its original pos

    You tempt me to obliterate the highlighted text - but these sort of fallacies, don't really belong here and will go into a possible thread about the Arab-Israeli conflict: there I will be able to group and discredit them in large numbers.

    There is no need for false modesty, I have demonstrated quite a few fallacies already on that subject, literally every single time that I engage in that issue - and I'm not even an expert, is not really my merit, is just that as Thomas Jefferson said: "Truth can stand by itself."
    Last edited by Castellano; 08 Sep 09, at 00:08.

  4. #34
    Dirty Kiwi Parihaka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castellano View Post
    I have no more interest in continuing with this particular argument (sheer fantasy?) - I think language and words when properly used speak for themselves.
    Your article stated as fact an obvious lie. If you choose to defend that lie, that's up to you.

  5. #35
    Senior Contributor Castellano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parihaka View Post
    Your article stated as fact an obvious lie. If you choose to defend that lie, that's up to you.

    The complain about the plutonium warhead necessary for an effective EMP attack - which contrary to what you said, would likely be catastrophic in the US or Europe - is going among other points in a letter to the author of the article.

    The electrical engineers' brainpower isn't.
    Last edited by Castellano; 08 Sep 09, at 21:45.

  6. #36
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    One thing that does stand out though. Iran imports a very large quantity of gasoline even though she produces alot of oil. Enough to give their own people headaches and gas rations. Why is Iran investing so much in this "civilian" nuclear program that she is willing enough to choke her own gas supplies instead of building more refinement facilities which could solve her problems. I'm inclined to believe that she is in fact building bombs and the increase in cascade equipment IMO supports this theory. I dont think sanctions are going to do this time around if they are infact that close. We totally cannot afford to have that regime getting their hands on such a weapon. The results would be catastrophic to the civilized world. Only bad things can come from this.
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

  7. #37
    Contributor axeman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnought View Post
    I'm inclined to believe that she is in fact building bombs and the increase in cascade equipment IMO supports this theory.
    As am I.

    The results would be catastrophic to the civilized world. Only bad things can come from this.
    Why would the result be catastrophic to the civilized world ?

  8. #38
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    Why would the result be catastrophic to the civilized world ?

    *Because their theocracy has proven hatred for neighboring countries, intolerance of the jewish religion, they are no doubt supporters of terrorism as has been proven time and time again both with Hamas,Hezbollah and in Iraq, the way they treat their own people, purging of their colleges which is coming once again and denial that they are in fact constructing a device. The regime in no way can be trusted to be truthfull in any sense. Its a real shame for the Iranian people. We shall see where the end of the month will lead to. The Iranian regime has made its own enemies thanks to threats of innaliation,fraudulent elections, treatment of their own people and a blatant refusal to be forthcoming with the U.N. and IAEC. I wouldnt blame the Israeli's one bit for acting in their own defence. And make no mistake, They will if things dont change. A-jad can thank no one but himself because the West is going to sit back and watch but it wont stop A-jad from blaming everyone but himself for what he will bring that country.
    Last edited by Dreadnought; 08 Sep 09, at 19:06.
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

  9. #39
    Senior Contributor Castellano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers View Post
    When people start referring to another report, it always help to goto the source material, specifically the IAEA report.

    http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/file_...August2009.pdf

    Iran DOES NOT have enough HEU for two nukes this year. What she does have enough Lowly Enriched Uranium to produce Highly Enriched Uranium, enough for two bombs by the end of this year. In other words, she just got enough LEU to start making HEU which requires 5 things.

    1) The current cascades got to stop making LEU, drained, cleaned, and start making HEU.

    2) A continous operation requiring no crash of the system.

    3) Every gram of LEU must not be wasted.

    4) No contamination possible or they have to start from scratch.

    5) Grab a hold of the LEU away from IAEA watch, lock, and key.

    In other words, the 2012-2013 timeline still holds true. Looks like Israel also got its share of reporters trying to be nuclear physicists and policy makers at the same time.

    I just would like to get this right...if next February Iran withdraws from the NPT and kicks out the inspectors, in 90 days to six months after February, Iran could in fact complete all the steps you listed and achieve “breakout capability”, and that would mean indeed “being capable of building nuclear bombs at will” in around 10 months form now.

    And that's a game changer in itself - even if it takes them longer to actually assemble the devices.


    Of course as you pointed out, first they would have to raise that red flag, but that is a different issue from the strict calculation of the timeline.

    Perhaps is worth to note that it won't be ElBaradei the one who deters them from raising that Red Flag
    Last edited by Castellano; 08 Sep 09, at 22:07.

  10. #40
    Defense Professional Dreadnought's Avatar
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    *And all the while Mr. Obama argues with the Israeli's over housing developments in the West Bank.:(
    Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

  11. #41
    Senior Contributor Castellano's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castellano View Post
    I just would like to get this right...if next February Iran withdraws from the NPT and kicks out the inspectors, in 90 days to six months after February, Iran could in fact complete all the steps you listed and achieve “breakout capability”, and that would mean indeed “being capable of building nuclear bombs at will” in around 10 months form now.
    Apparently the definition of “breakout capability” is debated.

  12. #42
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    History has a notorious way of repeating itself. Why is the world not taking A'hdjad seriously. Ok, forget political sloganeering 'death to America', 'death to Israel', recently 'death to Russia', can't people really see what is happening on the ground?

    Why is A'hdjad stone walling the IAEC on the outstanding question of the military aspect of the program which Iran still hasn't answered? Why is the world tolerating Iran not explaining to the IAEC the presence of a foreign weapons expert in their nuclear program? If Iran was working on a clandestine nuclear weapons program, what evidence would the world want to see before they can act decisively on Iran?

    Forget Israel, Iran's behavious is not good for anyone. Once it obtains the nukes there will be no turning back, the discussion will shift significantly to containment NOT prevention whilst there is a chance to nip this thing in the bud.

    The UN just has to slap decisive sanctions on this regime before its too late. A full processed fuel embargo would shack these mullahs to think rationally.

    OoE, is it true that America was days away from a full scale war with N Korea in 94 when NKorea announced its withdrawal from the NPT? Im just thinking loud here, what does it take for the world to do something about an existential threat.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Castellano View Post
    I just would like to get this right...if next February Iran withdraws from the NPT and kicks out the inspectors, in 90 days to six months after February, Iran could in fact complete all the steps you listed and achieve “breakout capability”, and that would mean indeed “being capable of building nuclear bombs at will” in around 10 months form now.
    I say withdrawl from NPT is the declaration of war everyone is looking at.
    Chimo

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zinja View Post
    OoE, is it true that America was days away from a full scale war with N Korea in 94 when NKorea announced its withdrawal from the NPT? Im just thinking loud here, what does it take for the world to do something about an existential threat.
    I don't know. I know PACCOM was put on alert but there was no increased deployment to South Korea in anticipation for war.
    Chimo

  15. #45
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    if Israel did decide to attack Iran - would they have the capability to stop them making the a bomb? All they could do is bomb them from the air - and Im presuming that they don't know where to find these things.

    Couldn't Iran just weather the storm until international condemnation forced Israel to stop?

    And then just carry on making the bomb?

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