Thread: Iran Election June 09

Whether Israel has nukes or not, it is served by the perception that it has them. While that may not prevent Hamas, etal, from sniping at Israel's settlements, it makes it less likely hostile states in the region would launch a conventional war on Israel.

It's a double-edged sword, however, for Iran can claim with some justification that it should have nukes to offset the threat Israel poses to it.

Furthermore Iran may draw some suppot from other Islamic countries in the region by arguing that it would be protecting not only itself from Israel's nuke, but by extension all of them.

What say you to the idea that Israel offer to get rid of its nukes in exchange for recognition by all nations in the region of its right to exist?

I doubt they would do it, but if a neutral nation were to propose it, we'd soon find out where Iran stands.

As B. Franklin often said, there is no such thing as a good war or a bad peace.

More bluster from Iran...

Iran Cleric Says British Embassy Staff to Stand Trial
By ALAN COWELL and STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: July 3, 2009

PARIS — Brushing aside British and European efforts to seek the release of local British Embassy staff members held in Tehran, the Iranian authorities indicated Friday that they planned to put some of them on trial — a move that deepened a diplomatic crisis and could provoke the withdrawal of ambassadors.

In London, the Foreign Office said it was urgently checking reports that the Iranian authorities planned to put two of its local employees on trial. Nine staff members were seized after the unrest sparked by Iran’s disputed presidential elections on June 12.

Hours after the Iranian threat, the European Union seemed to hold back from an out-and-out showdown, resolving to summon Iranian ambassadors in all 27 countries to send “a strong message of protest against the detention of British Embassy local staff and to demand their immediate release,” said a European diplomat who, following European Union rules, spoke on condition of anonymity.

Other measures — such as a ban on issuing visas to Iranian travelers and a pullout of European ambassadors — would be considered depending on how the crisis unfolded, the diplomat said.

The Iranian authorities accused the local employees of fomenting and orchestrating protests, but pro-democracy Iranians ascribed the violence on the streets to a widespread crackdown by government security forces.

In London, a spokeswoman for the Foreign Office, speaking in return for customary anonymity under civil service rules, said: “We are very concerned by these reports and are investigating. Allegations that our staff are involved in fomenting unrest are wholly without foundation. We will be seeking an urgent explanation from the Iranians.”

Britain has been pressing the European Union to withdraw all its ambassadors from Tehran in protest of the detention of its officials. But other European countries, led by Germany, argued that a withdrawal of envoys would leave them with few diplomatic options if the crisis deteriorated further.

Other possibilities such as a visa ban or withdrawal of ambassadors “are on the table, but there’s agreement on a gradual approach,” the European diplomat said.

The new slump in relations came when Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the influential Guardian Council and an ally of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told worshipers at Friday Prayers in Tehran that the local employees would be tried after they “made confessions.”

Ayatollah Jannati did not say how many of the British detainees would be tried or what charges they would face, news reports said.

But, in unofficial translations provided by news agencies, he said that the British Embassy had a “presence” in the post-election unrest and that some people had been arrested. It was “inevitable” that they would face trial, he said.

The Guardian Council is an influential panel of 12 clerics whose responsibilities including vetting elections. On Monday it certified the disputed presidential vote that returned President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, despite opposition claims of electoral fraud and huge protests on the streets.

The Iranian authorities have frequently blamed foreigners for the turmoil but have singled out the British as instigators.

At the same time, Tehran has sent mixed signals about the likely fate of the British Embassy employees.

Hassan Qashqavi, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, said on Monday — the day after the employees were arrested — that Iran was keen to maintain normal diplomatic relations with the European Union, its biggest trading partner. “Reduction of ties is not on our agenda with any European country, including Britain,” he said.

But on Wednesday, the semiofficial Fars news agency said one of the employees, who was not identified by name, “had a remarkable role during the recent unrest in managing it behind the scenes.” Iran has also claimed to have unspecified evidence linking British Embassy personnel to the unrest.

The idea of British Embassy staff members on trial recalled some of the images in 2007 when Iranian television paraded some of 15 captured British sailors making what were called confessions that they had entered Iranian territorial waters illegally.

While Ayatollah Jannati is not a member of the government or the judiciary, his words as the head of the Guardian Council and a close associate of the supreme leader carry some weight.

At Friday Prayers — a forum Iran has often used to convey significant political messages — he accused Britain of trying to provoke a “velvet revolution.” As long ago as March, he said, the British Foreign Office had said streets riots were possible during the June elections. “These are signs, revealed by themselves,” he said.

Ayatollah Jannati also said protesters “need to repent and ask God to forgive them.”

Many of the protesters have expressed loyalty to Mir Hussein Moussavi, a former prime minister who placed second to Mr. Ahmadinejad in the election, with the official count giving him around a third of the vote.

While challenges on the streets have gradually been suppressed, Mr. Moussavi has maintained his insistence that the outcome of the vote was illegitimate and that the authorities seem determined to maintain pressure on him.

While he did not mention Mr. Moussavi by name, Ayatollah Jannati inferred on Friday that the authorities considered him a traitor. According to The Associated Press, he pointed out that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution whom Mr. Moussavi served as prime minister, once said that “anyone who disrupts unity has not only committed a sin but also has committed treason against the Islamic republic and the system.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/04/wo...n.html?_r=1&hp

Originally Posted by axeman

1. Without getting into the technicalities, Israel does have a nuclear weapon. It isn't exactly a matter of great controversy...

But the status of her arsenal is. Israel is rumoured to have more nuclear weapons than the UK, France, or China. Do you believe that?

Also, there's a reason why all N5 powers rushed a last series of test before the CTBT and that is to get the math necessary to determined the viability of their aged arsenal. Israel having run no such tests (and neither did India nor Pakistan) would have serious questions about her arsenal as it too ages.

Originally Posted by axeman

2. Perhaps not. But, it serves as a large enough deterrence. Will you as an Iranian/Israeli leader be willing to risk on of your major cities on the chance that a nuclear weapon probably won't explode ?

The question is are the Israelis confident enough in their nukes?

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

The question is are the Israelis confident enough in their nukes?

And the colollary question is, are Isael's enemies confident enough Israel's nukes won't work?

I would count on them working and act accordingly ... which means to screw up Israeli targeteers up the ying yang.

In Iran, the religious authority of the Supreme Leader is the law. Now the most important group of religious leaders, previously remaining silent, has "called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate".

Leading Clerics Defy Ayatollah on Disputed Iran Election

4 July [NYTimes] CAIRO — The most important group of religious leaders in Iran called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate on Saturday, an act of defiance against the country’s supreme leader and the most public sign of a major split in the country’s clerical establishment.

A statement by the group, the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qum, represents a significant, if so far symbolic, setback for the government and especially the authority of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose word is supposed to be final. The government has tried to paint the opposition and its top presidential candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, as criminals and traitors, a strategy that now becomes more difficult — if not impossible.

“This crack in the clerical establishment, and the fact they are siding with the people and Moussavi, in my view is the most historic crack in the 30 years of the Islamic republic,” said Abbas Milani, director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University. “Remember, they are going against an election verified and sanctified by Khamenei.” ...

Since the election, the bulk of the clerical establishment in the holy city of Qum, an important religious and political center of power, has remained largely silent, leaving many to wonder when, or if, the nation’s most senior religious leaders would jump into the controversy that has posed the most significant challenge to the country’s leadership since the Islamic Revolution.

With its statement Saturday, the association of clerics — formed under the leadership of the revolution’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — came down squarely on the side of the reform movement. ...

Rafsanjani who had remained silent and unseen for two weeks, has now also spoken out against the election results.

Rafsanjani doubts Iranians 'satisfied' with election aftermath

1 hr ago TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- A former Iranian president who backed the top opposition leader in last month's disputed elections has delivered strong and carefully worded support of the grass-roots protest movement, saying he doubts "any wakened consciousness would be satisfied with the resulting situation."

Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani --chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts and a supporter of opposition leader Mir Hussein Moussavi was quoted on Saturday by the semi-official Iranian Labor News Agency.

Rafsanjani, who heads the group responsible for appointing or removing the supreme leader, was silent and largely unseen during the first two chaotic weeks following the contested June 12 elections. But Rafsanjani -- a key politician in the Islamic republic -- has become increasingly vocal about the elections results that gave hardline incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad an overwhelming victory. ....

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

I would count on them working and act accordingly ... which means to screw up Israeli targeteers up the ying yang.

I suppose you mean try to screw them up.

Iran born Grand Ayatollah Sistani and the top clerics at Iraq's holy city Najaf, for their good reasons, have remained silent about Iran's disputed election.

Iraqi top Shiite clerics are silent on Iran

NAJAF, Iraq (AP) — There is no place outside Iran that has closer links to Tehran's ruling establishment than Iraq's holy Shiite city of Najaf, where the silence during Iran's post-election crisis says much about the deep complexities of their cross-border bonds.

"Simply put, the whole affair does not concern Najaf," said Sheik Ali al-Najafi, son of and spokesman for Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Bashir al-Najafi, one of the city's four top Shiite clerics. "We will not interfere in the internal affairs of a dear, next door neighbor."

The four — who include Iranian-born Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani — have remained quiet on the upheavals in Iran since the disputed presidential election June 12. The reasons have to do with both religion and politics.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, father of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, lived here in exile for 16 years. Najaf also is the world's oldest and foremost seat of Shiite learning, and the Imam Ali shrine attracts hundreds of thousands of Iranian visitors every year. Many of the city's Iraqi residents speak some Persian.

Imam Ali, Prophet Muhammad's cousin and founder of Shiite Islam, is buried in Najaf along with many of the leading Shiite figures through the centuries. A short distance away from his domed shrine lives al-Sistani, who came to Iraq more than 50 years ago but has retained Iranian citizenship. ...

Despite the deep ties between the clerical establishments in Najaf and Iran, there are important differences.

The Najaf strain of Shiite teaching emphasizes that top clerics should be background figures — though influential — on most political affairs.

They did not speak out even during the crackdowns on Shiites by Saddam Hussein's regime in the 1990s. Nor have they spoken publicly about U.S. accusations that Iran has been aiding Shiite militias in Iraq as part of indirect pressure on American forces and the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad. ....

Originally Posted by Merlin

In Iran, the religious authority of the Supreme Leader is the law. Now the most important group of religious leaders, previously remaining silent, has "called the disputed presidential election and the new government illegitimate".

Leading Clerics Defy Ayatollah on Disputed Iran Election

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his lapdog A-jad are close to being toast.

What can the Revolutionary Guard do now? Jailing all the revered religious leaders who declared the election illigitimate is out of the question.

Khamenei may well retire or be replaced, and his successor will call for new elections. If so, the big question is, would A-jad run again? Or, rather would they let him run?

Originally Posted by JAD_333

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his lapdog A-jad are close to being toast.

What can the Revolutionary Guard do now? Jailing all the revered religious leaders who declared the election illigitimate is out of the question.

Khamenei may well retire or be replaced, and his successor will call for new elections. If so, the big question is, would A-jad run again? Or, rather would they let him run?

Now it gets REALLY interesting. I don't think the scholars in Qom are all that interested in some liberal 'revolution', but they have clearly reached breaking point with two men I suspect they consider are beneath them.

There could be room for compromise in the air. I'm making this up, but hows about this for a scenario: Khamenei steps down for 'health' reasons (apparently he is ill), perhaps in favour of Montazeri, who has the credentials. A-jad gets to keep the Presidency, but the Republican Guards come more firmly under the control of the army (which is itself subject to the Grand Ayatollah I think). There are some personnel changes on the Guardian Council, which becomes more aggressive in limiting the President.

Like I said, just makin' stuff up, but I suspect this will be settled in backroom deals.

Originally Posted by Merlin

Iran born Grand Ayatollah Sistani and the top clerics at Iraq's holy city Najaf, for their good reasons, have remained silent about Iran's disputed election.

Iraqi top Shiite clerics are silent on Iran

I imagine that Sistani will maintain his public silence, but I'm betting his people are 'working the phones' to Qom, so to speak.

Originally Posted by Bigfella

I imagine that Sistani will maintain his public silence, but I'm betting his people are 'working the phones' to Qom, so to speak.

I know you would wish he was 'working the phones' to Qom. But it is hard to say whether he would take the initiative. He may answer when the Qom clerics call. This quote below is from the above link.

The Najaf strain of Shiite teaching emphasizes that top clerics should be background figures — though influential — on most political affairs.

They did not speak out even during the crackdowns on Shiites by Saddam Hussein's regime in the 1990s. Nor have they spoken publicly about U.S. accusations that Iran has been aiding Shiite militias in Iraq as part of indirect pressure on American forces and the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad

Originally Posted by Officer of Engineers

But the status of her arsenal is. Israel is rumoured to have more nuclear weapons than the UK, France, or China. Do you believe that?

Also, there's a reason why all N5 powers rushed a last series of test before the CTBT and that is to get the math necessary to determined the viability of their aged arsenal. Israel having run no such tests (and neither did India nor Pakistan) would have serious questions about her arsenal as it too ages.

The question is are the Israelis confident enough in their nukes?

Sir,we obviously cannot know it for sure,but is it impossible for Israel to use US data?