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Reply With QuoteDefinitely not. The World is already a mess. No one needs another one.
In Greece we have a saying: Fovate o Giannis to therio, ke to therio ton Gianni. which means that BOTH parties fear each other. And fear is one bad advisor.
YES
Not without US backing
NO
FWIW, it would be nearly impossible for Iran or Israel to invade each other. No common border, and they don't have the lift capability to do either a sea or air invasion. But Israel's Air Force is far superior to Iran's.
Definitely not. The World is already a mess. No one needs another one.
In Greece we have a saying: Fovate o Giannis to therio, ke to therio ton Gianni. which means that BOTH parties fear each other. And fear is one bad advisor.
Well in 1980s there was a talk of an Israeli plan to bomb Pakistani Nuclear site using a forward Indian Airforce base. But the plan was apparantely scuttled as the Indian leadership was not comfortable with the fallout of the attack.Originally Posted by tinymarae
Grande Strategy: Wings Over Chagai - A Story of Israel's Threat to Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal
The Kahuta plan was made concurrently with the plan to attack Osirak using the same pilots of the Iraq mission, if it went through successfully. The Israelis planned to either use Indian airbases or fly non-stop from Israel to Kahuta while refuelling their aircraft using airborne tankers. Israeli Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft would jam Pakistani air defence radar while the Israelis took out Kahuta - or at least attempted to do so.
To this effect, India had played its part in cajoling and trying to convince Israel to carry this ill-advised plan through. However, Israel was insisting on using Indian air bases but India was reluctant to allow them such a facility for fear of sparking of another Indo-Pak war. According to a paper published by the Australian Institute for National Strategic Studies, “Israeli interest in destroying Pakistan’s Kahuta reactor to scuttle the "Islamic bomb" was blocked by India's refusal to grant landing and refueling rights to Israeli warplanes in 1982.” India wanted to see Kahuta gone but did not want to face the blame or the retaliation nor bear any responsibility. Israel, on its part wanted it to be seen as a joint Indo-Israeli strike so that responsibility could be shared. The Reagan Administration was against this plan, not out of any love for Pakistan’s nuclear programme, but because at that time it was busy fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan and considered Pakistan a key ally in the conflict. It informed Israel and India that it could not support such a plan. This plan, therefore, never materialized and was indefinitely postponed, and rightly so, after Pakistan reminded the Israelis that they were not the Iraqis and the Pakistan Air Force was not the Iraqi Air Force. Through indirect channels, Pakistan had also conveyed the message to Israel, if Kahuta was attacked, Pakistan would lay waste to Dimona, Israel’s nuclear reactor in the Negev Desert.
In this situation of crisis, I think nobody will need another war... And Israel always take decision with cold blood. They have one of the best Intelligence services (if not the best), and they will be at least one step ahead of Iran all the time.
So, no strike this time. Obama ask especial this.
Sorry for belated reply.To answer that you must ask at least one man. Iran President Ahmadinejad.
I'm guessing you are not familiar with Iranian power structure. As a company commander A-jad does not possess enough power to ask one of his riflemen to give him a cup of coffee. In scale of 10 A-jad has power of #11, all the way in bottom.
As an Iranian-American I despise IR of Iran itself and their support to those groups, they MUST concentrate on resolution for numerous domestic problem of their own.No one on the Israeli side can answer the question. What they can tell you, is between Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric and the actions that have either ordered or at least encouraged and resupplied both Hezbolla and Hamas to attack Israel directly. Both are known Iranian subcontractors. Particularly Hezbolla.
But it is not the first time in the world that a country provide support for a certain group of interest, our own nation holds the highest #.
Thanx for admitting it is indeed "MANUFACTURED".Neither of these issues were “MANUFACTURED” by anyone except IRAN.
As I said A-jad is not even close to be highest and his confrontational stance means nothing. President Reagan called USSR an "Evil Empire" did that rhetoric constitute an attack by Soviets?Simply based on fantasy. You are wrong. Rhetoric is not to be ignored when spouted by the highest leaders in a government. Israel’s rhetoric is simply a response.
It has nothing to do with being prejudice, rhetoric and/or a border skirmish should not justify an all out war.Iran threatens with rhetoric and hostile actions, that are rather obvious to the ‘UNPREJUDICED’ observer.
BTW: I support State of Israel and her sovereignty and hope for an alliance or at least an agreement between Israel and Iran, it will be the best for both and the whole region.
I drink kool aid called "Common sense". As for IRI making a bomb, I will not loose any sleep over it until Iran Kicks IAEA inspectors out and pulls out of NPT, then I have a compelling reason to worry. I'm sure you didn't know those inspector literally reside inside Iran. Yes there are some ambiguities but El-Beradi's latest report indicates every micrograms of fissile material are accounted for.Why? Religious belief? None of the facts point to an Iranian peaceful nuclear program. My guess is that is why they WILL NOT ALLOW peaceful UN inspections. Or other international Nuclear regulatory agencies to inspect either. Of course it’s a peaceful program. What kool aide do you drink with your corn flakes?
I despise all organized religions and one step away from being a total atheist. That my friend is the bottom line.Your religious belief in the goodness of Iran and their nuclear program will not keep Israeli children safe. That my friend is the bottom line.
I fail to accept Red Herring as fact.If it is true or reasonably possible, it isn’t paranoia, it is a REAL threat.
The belief that this is all to get more money from the USA or other international sources, is what we call a RED HERRING.
They did it even inside Iran quick and swift. He received plenty of gag from left & right that was the reason he tried to spin it so hard and so many when he claimed his word "was taken out of context" and he didn't mean total destruction of Israel. Even though I personally believe he meant total destruction in his initial commentI guess you pro Iran folks are going to have to put a gag in Ahmadinejad’s mouth. He is singularly why the media is all over this. There are other reasons, but his rhetoric brings everyone back to point. The Iranian guy, not Israel’s guy.
United States NIE indicates IRI has abandoned all its ambitions for weaponizing its nuclear R&D. I personally am not satisfied with NIE report either, as I mentioned when IRI kicks the inspectors out and leaves NPT then I will start worrying knowing still it will take minimum of 3 years before they can come up with a test device. Needless to say they will have to come up with a reliable delivery system and I don't believe in "Dirty Bomb" which is another hilarious term made by politicians and biased media.Why? It is getting equipment that is not needed for peaceful use of nuclear power. Some of the equipment is only used for the much more difficult manufacturing of nuclear weapons grade plutonium. Now why would YOU THINK they would do that. And of course let no one inspect either.
Agreed. IMHO win or die is the main reason for Israel to win all her major wars. They have no other choice, for them "Loosing" means total inhalation.The Israeli’s don’t have a choice. If you are right, they live, if you are wrong, they die.
Iran is NO WAY close to pre war Nazi Germany.With do respect, I ain’t going to place my life or my families lives in jeopardy because you THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Sounds a lot like pre World War II Europe around here.
Their air force is a flying museum, non-existent navy except for some silk-worms, other anti ship missiles + some FAC which can not be effective beyond 150 miles, so so Army and their entire missile arsenal reminds me of nature, when an inferior animal puffs up its feathers to show its bigger than what the predator thinks.
Iran is paying a huge toll for the sanctions specially the ones which were implemented in past 2 years. They can buy a big "NOTHING", they are able to buy some toys in black market but nothing close to offensive and effective weapons.
Agreed. It is an idiotic stance which has cast economic and political havoc on majority of Iranians. IRI is biting the same hand which fed them so dearly during Iran-Iraq war. Israel back then was the largest military supporter of Iran.Iran is the entity raising the stakes. They can lower the stakes, but choose not to. WHY? Israel is in no danger of attacking Iran for any other reason. None.
Say Northern Alliance, Taliban and Al-Qaeda once.Say Hezbolla three times quickly.
Majority of Iranians believe A-jad was selectedYou are absolutely right. The sins of a countries leader is visited on it’s general population. As we say in the USA, elections have consequences.
Oh boy!! DO I AGREE with that statement or what. I don't blame all of Iranian islamic revolution on Carter, but for haven sake which leader of the free world would khomeini a saint?Yes, the worst President of the 20th century was Jimmy Carter, and he is in the running for the worst President ever. So many of today’s MAJOR crisis’s, is a direct result of policy by the Carter Regime. Iran and North Korea, to name two.
Will never happen. Sitting next to 2 smei-extremist islamic nation, which one of them is nuclear armed it will be an unmistakable detriment to the safety India.If I was an Israeli, I would at least look into basing my raid(s) out of India. Come from a direction they are not expecting you.
Needless to mention that Iran and India have been enjoying very stable and great relation for over 200 years and at the present they are big trade partners.
I hate that internationally known clown, but out of fairness he said that once, and openly took it back, which I personally believe it was too late because anti-Iranian media and groups had already invested on it.I guess that’s why Ahmadinejad is constantly spouting off about eradicating Israel.
It sounds silly but some time I seriously think that man-looking prez. of Iran is on Israeli payroll.:D:DNow why do you think he does that. Because he secretly “loves” Israel and wants them to be safe, reduce tensions? Words have consequences.
Last edited by Aryajet; 30 May 09, at 22:31.
Israel attacking Iran carries great risks, as you all know Iranian installations are well dispersed, underground, hardened and defended by a formidable array of anti-aircraft missiles and guns including the sophisticated tor air defense missiles. Iran also has an experienced air force who can intercept enemy aircraft's, one must realize that Israel can only launch at most a dozen bombers with another dozen fighters for protection without leaving its own airspace vulnerable.
With that in mind Israel also has to travel thousands of miles and by the time they get to Iran will be low on fuel; thus will not have enough fuel to loiter over Iranian airspace and dog fight hundreds of Iranian fighters and interceptors that will be sent against them, in that scenario not only will they not have enough fuel and have to counter an enemy who would have home turf and numerical superiority but will also have to counter the formidable Iranian anti-aircraft batteries. For those reasons make an air strike on Iran very hazardous and not to mention the aftermath shocking repercussions such an attack will send throughout the Middle East.
Iran also has the ability to retaliate with devastating effect against Israel, U.S. forces across the Middle East and Western interests across the globe. Iran has globe reach from the Middle East, to Europe, to Latin America, to Africa and Asia; therefore, they are not in a handicap position when it comes to retaliatory options such as Iraq and Afghanistan were which makes a strike against Iran all the more scary and daunting.
I just hope Israel realizes just like many American generals do about the uselessness and futility of a military strike against Iran and not drag the world to abyss and uncertainty.
Israel shouldn't attack unless it becomes a threat, even though Iran has made constant threats there isn't any proof of any nukes being developed. They just want energy, that's all.
This is a good thread; I am doing an assignment on it for my International Relations class so I hope to find some good leads to follow up on.
Here is the situation as I see it.
Israel: Surrounded by aggressive nations that not only refuse to acknowledge their legitimacy as a nation but who make it their policy to have them wiped off the map. Iran has been expressly vocal about this and has put steps in place (nuclear program) to carry out their desires.
Iran: Iran has a religious fundamentalist government that will stop at nothing to spread their ideals and this doesn't necessarily mean through Liberal means. Iran has labeled their nuclear program as peaceful and for energy purposes even though they live on a lake of oil. Unchanging in their approach to foreign policy and unrelenting in their desires to destroy Israel, Iran continue to build arms and stall attempts to negotiate on their nuclear aspirations.
USA: see a strong ally in Israel and is not about to let their geopolitical ambitions go to waste in the region. The US cannot afford at this stage another Iraq style ground invasion and would need the assistance of Israel if they so choose a military intervention. Israel could lead the attack and the US could provide logistical support.
Solution: Iran should recognize their role in the dispute. Achieving nuclear armament will not secure their sovereignty and my guess is as soon as the US or Israel has any evidence (note the lack of the word ‘hard’ in relation to evidence) Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be turned to dust along with their reactors.
Because there is no way of knowing what Iran will do with enriched uranium Israel and the US will simply not take the chance in waiting to see their true ambitions.
A few comments Blazer
Well, sorta.
Last time I checked the biggest & most important of these countries - Egypt - actually did acknowledge Israel & wasn't remotely interested in 'wiping it off the map'. Lebanon can't even govern its own territory, I'm pretty sure Jordan has been 'sitting out' any serious part of this for years and whatever Syria might dream about in its bed at night, those dreams don't extend to actually getting any Syrians killed. Israel certainly lives in a hostile environment, but the policy of its neighbours is to cover their arses first
Another 'well sorta'.Iran: Iran has a religious fundamentalist government that will stop at nothing to spread their ideals and this doesn't necessarily mean through Liberal means. Iran has labeled their nuclear program as peaceful and for energy purposes even though they live on a lake of oil. Unchanging in their approach to foreign policy and unrelenting in their desires to destroy Israel, Iran continue to build arms and stall attempts to negotiate on their nuclear aspirations.
Iran will most definately stop at something to spread its ideals - getting a bunch of Iraninans killed. it is happy enough to pay others to do its dirty work, but Iran under the Mullahs has never directly invaded or even attacked a neighbour (unlike its neighbours - Russia, Turkey, Iraq & Pakistan, or for that matter israel or the US). The notion that getting nukes MUST be connected with some of the regime's more extreme statements about Israel is a huge leap. There are plenty of much more mundane reasons for getting a bomb - start with national security & then move to being a 'bigger dog' in the region. Iran already has missiles & planes that could attack Israel, so it is hardly 'unrelenting'.
not. gunna. happen.USA: see a strong ally in Israel and is not about to let their geopolitical ambitions go to waste in the region. The US cannot afford at this stage another Iraq style ground invasion and would need the assistance of Israel if they so choose a military intervention. Israel could lead the attack and the US could provide logistical support.
If Israel attacks it will be more or less alone. If America attacks it will be with the agreement of a whole bunch of other nations. Joint military action with Israel will burn every alliance, quasi-alliance, friendship & acquaintance the US has in the Muslim world.
My bet is that Iran will keep the threat on the table as long as it is useful & then quietly deep six it. Alternatively, sanctions might push them in the right direction. if the regime is crazy enough to want to nuke Israel then the threat of lesser US action won't dissuade them. In fact, it would guarantee the current regime in power at a time when it may have fatally wounded itself. So I'm not sure how much of a threat US action really is.Solution: Iran should recognize their role in the dispute. Achieving nuclear armament will not secure their sovereignty and my guess is as soon as the US or Israel has any evidence (note the lack of the word ‘hard’ in relation to evidence) Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be turned to dust along with their reactors.
Perhaps.Because there is no way of knowing what Iran will do with enriched uranium Israel and the US will simply not take the chance in waiting to see their true ambitions.
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
False
Either you are getting absurdly technical or I really did miss something.
If you are talking about the Iran-Iraq war then I think that having another nation actually park its army inside your borders (I think the technical term is 'invasion') gets you off the hook.
If I missed Iran sending forces into Turkey, the USSR, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbajan, Turkmenistan or Pakistan then by all means inform me. Always ready to learn.
Just curious, do you plan to wander around every old thread you find to quibble with my old posts? It just seems a bit sad is all. I realize you probably feel a bit embarassed after your performance on a couple of recent threads, but chasing me around isn't going to make you look any better. Send a sonnet to dear Caroline, perhaps she will take you seriously.
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
Even better, stick it where it belongs.Originally Posted by Castellano
False
http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/war...tml#post673468
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
You really missed something, I'm too busy today.
I'll take a quick answer & go look it up. The suspense is killing me.
Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C
What about the role of al-Quds in Iraq.
Is that not to attack Iraq?
Deniability of culpability is the ABC of terror tactics. Let's not parrot the Iranian regime propaganda soundbites, let alone with the 'sorta' pose.
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