View Poll Results: Should Israel go ahead with the attack?

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Thread: Should Israel Attack Iran's Nuclear Reactor?

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by HazeGrey View Post
    Aryajet. I do not understand your opinion that they(Iran) would continue nuclear R&D all the way to the point of just short of making the actual bomb and then they will stop? It's like saying that a marathon runner will just stop short of the finish line.
    Can you please explain you opinion as to why Iran would stop at the finish line?
    I think South Africa went Nucleur in the 70/s/80s? only to deconstruct the process once they thought the threat from whatever it was/ Russia/ Chinese maybe was over, so I suppose the Iranians could do the same

  2. #47
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    The logistics of the attack would be the most difficult part (aside from the political considerations). Israel has three possible routes, over Iraq and Jordan, across the Saudi Peninsula, or around the Saudi peninsula to the south. The first two would require the US or the Saudis to agree, and both are unlikely at this time. The third would be an amazing logistical feet.

    There are, I guess other options including missiles and covert operations, but those carry their own danges, with perhaps less chance of success.

    Because of the logistical and political problems, imo the Israelis should hold off as long as possible, and hope for a diplomatic solution. The Iranians are probably still several years away from actually being able to produce a bomb that can actually be fitted to one of its missiles anyway.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by tankie View Post
    I hope they wait , but knowing Israels past, they wont hold back
    yes, I think the same. but there may be a change of tactics, I read a new article recently, which said that israel MAY be attacking the scientists involved in building iran's nukes, instead of going for their reactors. I say, smart move.

  4. #49
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    Israel launches covert war against Iran

    Found this article during the week


    By Philip Sherwell in New York
    Last Updated: 10:38PM GMT 16 Feb 2009

    Israel has launched a covert war against Iran as an alternative to direct military strikes against Tehran's nuclear programme, US intelligence sources have revealed.

    It is using hitmen, sabotage, front companies and double agents to disrupt the regime's illicit weapons project, the experts say.

    The most dramatic element of the "decapitation" programme is the planned assassination of top figures involved in Iran's atomic operations.

    Despite fears in Israel and the US that Iran is approaching the point of no return in its ability to build atom bomb, Israeli officials are aware of the change in mood in Washington since President Barack Obama took office.

    They privately acknowledge the new US administration is unlikely to sanction an air attack on Iran's nuclear installations and Mr Obama's offer to extend a hand of peace to Tehran puts any direct military action beyond reach for now.

    The aim is to slow down or interrupt Iran's research programme, without the gamble of a direct confrontation that could lead to a wider war.

    A former CIA officer on Iran told The Daily Telegraph: "Disruption is designed to slow progress on the programme, done in such a way that they don't realise what's happening. You are never going to stop it.

    "The goal is delay, delay, delay until you can come up with some other solution or approach. We certainly don't want the current Iranian government to have those weapons. It's a good policy, short of taking them out militarily, which probably carries unacceptable risks."

    Reva Bhalla, a senior analyst with Stratfor, the US private intelligence company with strong government security connections, said the strategy was to take out key people.

    "With co-operation from the United States, Israeli covert operations have focused both on eliminating key human assets involved in the nuclear programme and in sabotaging the Iranian nuclear supply chain," she said.

    "As US-Israeli relations are bound to come under strain over the Obama administration's outreach to Iran, and as the political atmosphere grows in complexity, an intensification of Israeli covert activity against Iran is likely to result."

    Mossad was rumoured to be behind the death of Ardeshire Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist at Iran's Isfahan uranium plant, who died in mysterious circumstances from reported "gas poisoning" in 2007.

    Other recent deaths of important figures in the procurement and enrichment process in Iran and Europe have been the result of Israeli "hits", intended to deprive Tehran of key technical skills at the head of the programme, according to Western intelligence analysts.

    "Israel has shown no hesitation in assassinating weapons scientists for hostile regimes in the past," said a European intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity. They did it with Iraq and they will do it with Iran when they can."

    Mossad's covert operations cover a range of activities. The former CIA operative revealed how Israeli and US intelligence co-operated with European companies working in Iran to obtain photographs and other confidential material about Iranian nuclear and missile sites.

    "It was a real company that operated from time to time in Iran and in the nature of their legitimate business came across information on various suspect Iranian facilities," he said.

    Israel has also used front companies to infiltrate the Iranian purchasing network that the clerical regime uses to circumvent United Nations sanctions and obtain so-called "dual use" items – metals, valves, electronics, machinery – for its nuclear programme.

    The businesses initially supply Iran with legitimate material, winning Tehran's trust, and then start to deliver faulty or defective items that "poison" the country's atomic activities.

    "Without military strikes, there is still considerable scope for disrupting and damaging the Iranian programme and this has been done with some success," said Yossi Melman, a prominent Israeli journalist who covers security and intelligence issues for the Haaretz newspaper.

    Mossad and Western intelligence operations have also infiltrated the Iranian nuclear programme and "bought" information from prominent atomic scientists. Israel has later selectively leaked some details to its allies, the media and United Nations atomic agency inspectors.

    On one occasion, Iran itself is understood to have destroyed a nuclear facility near Tehran, bulldozing over the remains and replacing it with a football pitch, after its existence was revealed to UN inspectors. The regime feared that the discovery by inspectors of an undeclared nuclear facility would result in overwhelming pressure at the UN for tougher action against Iran.

    The Iranian government has become so concerned about penetration of its programme that it has announced arrests of alleged spies in an attempt to discourage double agents. "Israel is part of a detailed and elaborate international effort to slow down the Iranian programme," said Mr Melman.

    But Vince Canastraro, the former CIA counter-terrorism chief, expressed doubts about the efficacy of secret Israeli operations against Iran. "You cannot carry out foreign policy objectives via covert operations," he said. "You can't get rid of a couple of people and hope to affect Iran's nuclear capability."

    Iran has consistently asserted that it is pursuing a nuclear capability for civilian energy generation purposes. But Israeli and Western intelligence agencies believe the 20-year-old programme, which was a secret until 2002, is designed to give the ruling mullahs an atom bomb.

  5. #50
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    I saw that article as well, Pink.

    What exactly Israeli agents are doing in Iran is an impossible question to answer I think. But its pretty safe to say that Israel is very active in Iran, along with the US. This article really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
    Smells like napalm, tastes like chicken!

  6. #51
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    Israel shouldn't attack Iran because the effect of attacking iran will be more harmful and worse on Israel than America.
    the peace is the best way

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Traxus View Post
    This article really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
    I am not surprised at all, Mossad may have assassinated Gerald Bull for his involvement in Project Babylon and Iraq's SCUD missiles.

    If Israel where to attack Iran they would have to wait for a "politicly acceptable" reason, otherwise the international backlash could be problematic.
    Last edited by Rodinga; 23 Feb 09, at 06:43. Reason: addition
    There is no such thing as free lunch

  8. #53
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    quote]
    Why should 2 very influential nations in the region go to war based on a manufactured animosity? [/quote]

    To answer that you must ask at least one man. Iran President Ahmadinejad.

    No one on the Israeli side can answer the question. What they can tell you, is between Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric and the actions that have either ordered or at least encouraged and resupplied both Hezbolla and Hamas to attack Israel directly. Both are known Iranian subcontractors. Particularly Hezbolla.

    Neither of these issues were “MANUFACTURED” by anyone except IRAN.

    There is no single understandable reason for this rivalry. Sure there are plenty of fiery rhetorics but deep down Iran and Israel share plenty of common interest in the region and I have no doubt the leaders from both sides understand this very well. Israel is using Iranian's confrontational attitude for international and Iran is using the same for domestic and regional gains.
    Simply based on fantasy. You are wrong. Rhetoric is not to be ignored when spouted by the highest leaders in a government. Israel’s rhetoric is simply a response.

    Iran threatens with rhetoric and hostile actions, that are rather obvious to the ‘UNPREJUDICED’ observer.

    Also I personally don't believe Iran will make any nuclear weapons at least not in present environment in which so many nations are against the program as well as Iranian Leaders openly declaring that "possessing WMD is against Islam" repeatedly. IMHO They will continue the nuclear R&D all the way to the point of just short of making the actual bomb and then they will stop.
    Why? Religious belief? None of the facts point to an Iranian peaceful nuclear program. My guess is that is why they WILL NOT ALLOW peaceful UN inspections. Or other international Nuclear regulatory agencies to inspect either. Of course it’s a peaceful program. What kool aide do you drink with your corn flakes?

    Your religious belief in the goodness of Iran and their nuclear program will not keep Israeli children safe. That my friend is the bottom line.

    One very important overlooked fact, is that it can only help Israel's case to hype up a threat, however dubious that may be. By maintaining a political image of being underthreat, Israel benefits substantially from Military funding from the U.S and private individuals.
    Very true. It is also true, that if Iran continues doing what it IS IN FACT DOING, it does not help Israel’s case to be wiped off the face of the earth either.

    If it is true or reasonably possible, it isn’t paranoia, it is a REAL threat.

    The belief that this is all to get more money from the USA or other international sources, is what we call a RED HERRING.

    Regardless of the reality of the threat (the 'material' is on the shores of the Persion Gulf for pete's sake, extra-ordinarily easy to neutralise or dissaude) it is an important part of Israels economy to be on the international 'military social security doll' list.
    Either that or have to fight their enemies, Hezbolla, Hamas, Syria, Iran with out international support. Unless one was very, very foolish, if I was jewish or an Israeli I would continue to get as much military support as I could.

    The more it is hyped, on the news, in the papers, in political statements from politicians, the more justification is gets for funding.
    I guess you pro Iran folks are going to have to put a gag in Ahmadinejad’s mouth. He is singularly why the media is all over this. There are other reasons, but his rhetoric brings everyone back to point. The Iranian guy, not Israel’s guy.

    And I would not take Ahmadinejad too seriously. He is just a populist, playing to his home crowd.
    Exactly what Neville Chamberlain said about Hitler. And Hitler was.

    Well, so far Iran has stated repeatedly that it is not seeking a nucear weapon. Until it changes this declaration we have to assume that it intends not to develop one.
    Why? It is getting equipment that is not needed for peaceful use of nuclear power. Some of the equipment is only used for the much more difficult manufacturing of nuclear weapons grade plutonium. Now why would YOU THINK they would do that. And of course let no one inspect either.

    I maintain that it's too risky to start a war with Iran over the possibility that it might be building a nuclear weapon.
    For who? You? I bet if your children were sleeping in Israel every night you might have a very different opinion.

    The Israeli’s don’t have a choice. If you are right, they live, if you are wrong, they die.

    With do respect, I ain’t going to place my life or my families lives in jeopardy because you THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Sounds a lot like pre World War II Europe around here.

    Iran is the entity raising the stakes. They can lower the stakes, but choose not to. WHY? Israel is in no danger of attacking Iran for any other reason. None.

    I agree with this. I think a nuclear-armed Iran is a manageable problem.
    Just like above. For who? If my family had to sleep in Israel, I would not consider that “manageable”. I would end the risk.

    I will not trust my families lives to an unelected Theocratic Mullah or Priest, and his anti Israeli Presidents rhetoric. There are dangerous reactions to Iran’s actions and Rhetoric. They, Iran, can change that situation, but choose not to.

    Be very careful what you sow, because what you reap from that can be the whirlwind.

    It should also be noted that under Iran's constitution, unlike in many other republics, the President is not the C-in-C of the armed forces.
    Yea, an unelected Mullah is. I don’t trust either one of them, for exactly the same reason. There is no one to reign in the Top Mullah, and there is no one reigning in Ahmadinejad.

    Once again, as an Israeli, I would not trust my families existence to either of these Iranians. There as still in Israel, people who heard in many ways exactly the same rhetoric from Adolph Hitler, and the world stood around and said don’t worry.

    The world was wrong.

    Regarding the quarter-century or so that has passed since the Iranian Revolution, I see little evidence that those governing that country, whatever their rhetoric, are actually irrational in their conduct of foreign policy.
    Say Hezbolla three times quickly.

    Mr AhMADinejad is another matter: if the sins of a country's nominal leader are to be visited on its general population, I am concerned for UK (post Bliar [sic]) and US - Bush; they all seem to claim endorsement from a higher power.
    You are absolutely right. The sins of a countries leader is visited on it’s general population. As we say in the USA, elections have consequences.

    I don’t see any great problem in the UK but those in the UK may see much clearer and with better understanding what is happening in their own country, I do believe the USA is at the beginning of a period of great decline. Primarily because of who was elected President and his already active policies. The body politic will suffer.

    I do not think anyone on this thread has mentioned Israel's possession of nuclear weapons - this was confirmed by Jimmy Carter last year.
    Yes, the worst President of the 20th century was Jimmy Carter, and he is in the running for the worst President ever. So many of today’s MAJOR crisis’s, is a direct result of policy by the Carter Regime. Iran and North Korea, to name two.

    What is YOUR POINT.

    Why would Israel use its air force?; it too has missiles of adequate range to reach Iran.
    Questionable accuracy for the mission at hand. They may feel it is the best tool at hand. They may use the Air force to move ground forces in to do the job.

    If I was an Israeli, I would at least look into basing my raid(s) out of India. Come from a direction they are not expecting you.

    Any person with an ounce of common sense will have serious hard time understanding this fabricated enmity among these 2 nations. They are not neighbors, they never had any sort of territorial dispute, never been any pact or treaty to be violated. Just like Israel, Iran is surrounded by threats (except for Turkmenistan perhaps) and during Iran-Iraq war Israel was the major supporter of Iran.
    Actually anyone with an ounce of common sense can understand the situation clearly. It is those who are either naive or pro Iran that cannot see the problem. Either way, dangerous for Israel, and dangerous for Iran ONLY if they continue both their actions and rhetoric. The Iranians are in control. They may not like what their control of the situation may reward them with.

    I guess that’s why Ahmadinejad is constantly spouting off about eradicating Israel.

    Now why do you think he does that. Because he secretly “loves” Israel and wants them to be safe, reduce tensions? Words have consequences.

    For above reasons and no matter how hard I try, I just can't comprehend this preposterous enmity among these 2 nations.
    Then you are being naive. Are Pro Iran, or Hate Israel. Or some combination of them. Your choice.

    This fake animosity can't be justified based on ideology either because Quran the Holiest book in Islam historically put the Children of Israel (Bani-Israel) exactly where they are today.
    Please, Please, point to the fake part?

    Talk to the leaders in Iran. Maybe they will tell you why they are behaving the way they are. I understand why Israel is behaving the way it does to Iran. It is in danger and is trying to stop or neutralize that danger.

    Words have consequences.

    How many Kartusha Rockets have Iran given too Hamas?
    Don’t forget to include those given to Hezbolla too. Particularly those "rushed" to Hezbolla during their last fracas against Israel, and most recently those "RUSHED" to Hama's so they would not run out.

    On one occasion, Iran itself is understood to have destroyed a nuclear facility near Tehran, bulldozing over the remains and replacing it with a football pitch, after its existence was revealed to UN inspectors. The regime feared that the discovery by inspectors of an undeclared nuclear facility would result in overwhelming pressure at the UN for tougher action against Iran.
    I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn if you really believe that.

    I have some other options:

    1. The facility is now underneath the football pitch. In my opinion this is the most probable.
    2. Once spotted, the Iranian leadership doesn’t want nuclear targets inside Tehran.
    3. Now that they knew the Israelis knew where it was for sure, it was doomed anyway. Move it.

    I can guarantee you it wasn’t because of the fear of world opinion.

    Israel shouldn't attack Iran because the effect of attacking iran will be more harmful and worse on Israel than America.
    the peace is the best way
    First, Israel is in this for Israel, not America.

    Second, they want to stay alive, actually a rather simple concept. Self preservation

    Third, not attacking first could very possibly cause the extinction of the state of Israel.

    See rather simple.

    I am not surprised at all, Mossad may have assassinated Gerald Bull for his involvement in Project Babylon and Iraq's SCUD missiles.
    I am sure they did. Some folks think it may have been the Iraqi’s. But generally I find the Mossad is much better at these things. Much more Competent.

    If Israel where to attack Iran they would have to wait for a "politicly acceptable" reason, otherwise the international backlash could be problematic.
    Most of the world is against them already. Most often led by an Arab nation or one of their oldest nemesis, France.

    Are they afraid of really pissing off countries that don't like them already? With apologies to Ann Coulter.

    Go figure.

    Fred
    Semper Fi

  9. #54
    Former Staff Senior Contributor Ironduke's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chieftain
    If I was an Israeli, I would at least look into basing my raid(s) out of India. Come from a direction they are not expecting you.
    The last time I checked, India and Iran maintain friendly relations. I would hazard a guess that in fact, India prizes its relations with Iran more than those with Israel.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    The last time I checked, India and Iran maintain friendly relations. I would hazard a guess that in fact, India prizes its relations with Iran more than those with Israel.
    Hrmmm.... maybe, maybe not. The Indian military loves its links with Israel and a great source of high tech goodies.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by zraver View Post
    Hrmmm.... maybe, maybe not. The Indian military loves its links with Israel and a great source of high tech goodies.
    The answer is most definitely not. India's trade with Iran is three times that of its trade with Israel. Their love of Israeli goodies doesn't overcome trade, energy, common interests with Iran in Afghanistan, etc.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ironduke View Post
    The answer is most definitely not. India's trade with Iran is three times that of its trade with Israel. Their love of Israeli goodies doesn't overcome trade, energy, common interests with Iran in Afghanistan, etc.
    OTOH, Israel is India's largest weapons supplier having surpassed Russia.

    India has launched a spy satellite for Israel to monitor Iran - clicky. This should serve as an indication of which way India will go if it has to choose between Iran and Israel

    Therefore you cannot definitively say that India values Iran more than Israel.

    India needs Iran for Oil and Afghanistan, Israel for its weapons.
    If India's recent foreign policy is any indicator, India would prefer not to be in a position where it has to choose one over the other and would like to maintain cordial relations with both countries.

    Same goes for India's relations with US and Russia.
    Last edited by tinymarae; 16 Apr 09, at 05:41.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cosmic View Post
    I am inclined to this... i think the report is to just divert Iran and cause an tension among civilian, but the hardliner is not going to be impacted... It would be better for Israel to just act rather than talking...
    They will (and they should) once it will become clear that nothing on the diplomatic front can succeed. The mission is hard especially if and when Russian S300 will be delivered. The last5 I heard Israel supposedly has a technology which will neutralize S300 system and proceed to the target area afterward. But i still has my doubts about effectiveness of this new technology.
    Does anyone know about it?
    Last edited by JohnFlint1985; 16 Apr 09, at 06:13.
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  14. #59
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    Quotes from Winston

    He also said:-
    "Jaw, jaw is always better than war,war".

    More light heartedly (for those of a certain age: - WC encounters Clement Atlee in the Gents in the HoC and pointedly moves to the furthest urinal.

    CA "You're not being very social today, Winston.

    WC "Clem, it is not that I am being anti-social; it is just that, whenever you see something big, you nationalise it".

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    Israel would be foolish to invade Iran. Iranian military power is growing daily. While Israel has the most advanced weapons in the Middle East, its aggressiveness would threaten little bit of regional peace there is today. Plus Israel would be fighting against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. People mistake Iran for Iraq. Iran is 3 times what Iraq was. So Israeli strike would be the most foolish thing to do.

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