Thread: Iran and my way of dealing with it.

Originally Posted by cyppok

2) Create cultural institutions that would push language to the forefront of the agenda and appeal to Iranian Azerbaijanis ergo create/streamline institutions that would filter the middle class of Iranian Az through Azerbaijan's institutions. (model it on other countries successful language programs with same language nations (like Francophone exchanges etc) whereby students from Iranian Az go to Az and are subsidized and vice versa. I am sure its happening now but not on a volume thats necessary.)

The Iranian government itself already broadcasts radio shows to Azerbaijan Republic in Azeri Turkish. And it would be of little to no benefit for Iranian students to study in Azerbaijan Republic. What makes you think they are going to go there of all places?

3) Ferment either democratic or economic [not both] development in Azerbaijan that would create trade gravity with the bordering Iranian provinces posing a higher standard of living and economic ties. A free trade zone with Iran or something which would tie the people closer if disrupted. (steps 2-4 should take 3+ years or less if several catalysts occur)

You assume, incorrectly, that ethnic-nationalism is something that is strong among Iranian Azeris. It isnt. Shi'a nationalism is what prevails in Iranian Azerbaijan. The government of Azerbaijan Republic has more to fear from a growth of Shi'a nationalism among its own population than the Iranian government has to worry about a growth of Azeri nationalism in northwest Iran. What you suggest would only open the door to bring Azerbaijanis closer to Iran and to Shi'a Islam than Iranian Azeris closer to Azerbaijan Republic, lol.

4) Simultaneously there must be support for the Kurds/Arabs in Iran to integrate with Kurdish/Arabic community in Iraq this is somewhat tougher but once social dialog is established by creating a link from leaders of ones to leaders of the others and growing across the chain of command it will be easier and faster.

You're probably unaware that Saddam Hussein also expected that the Arab community in southwest Iran would revolt against the Islamic Republic and side with the invading Iraqis during the Persian Gulf war based on this notion of 'Arab brotherhood'. He was dead wrong, and so you will be too. The Arabs of Khuzestan resisted Saddam as much as any other Iranian did.

And evidently you're also unaware that the Arab community in Iran is scattered and is not all concentrated along the Iranian border with Iraq. And even where there is an Arab concentration in southwest Iran, they're not a majority and live alongside an equal number (if not greater number) of Persians.

Kurds on the other hand are Iranian through and through. Foreign powers have tried in the past to incite the Kurds to rebel in Iran. They havent. That is why there is no serious Kurdish problem in Iran and why the proxy groups like PJAK are made up of Kurds from the PKK, who are mainly recruits from Iraq or Turkey.

5) Catalyst(s), once oil and gas revenues collapse during worldwide economic slowdown the ties that are created above will allow greater economic mobility and survivability of those stratas which integrated with the neighboring regions. As always the center will try to either re-distribute or tax its options thus alienating the outer areas until rebellion or long-term hostility. The most important people to target for cross-border-societal-integration by the Azeris, Kurds, and Arabs are the military personnel, and/or children of military personnel and of course the respective leaders of those regions local areas.

There are no such things as "local leaders". You must be a little crazy. Iran is not Iraq, and Iran is not Afghanistan. We dont have warlords or tribal leaders or whatever else that you can bribe. I dont think you understand Iranian society. There are Azeris, Kurds, Arabs and representatives from all other minority groups in the Iranian government, military and paramilitary groups. And the Azeris make up a substantive number in the Iranian government. Iran's 'supreme leader' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself is an Azeri.

6) The most important thing is a co-ordinated movement of all three parties during the upheaval and creating a structural rift in the Iranian society/state.
This could be achieved by fermenting Persian nationalism. (hard to achieve)

You have no idea. Persians are already very nationalist, and always have been.

The most important thing out of all this if Iran lost all those territories with Kurds, Arabs, and Azeris on its western side would be. Its nuclear prolifiration would be hampered. Further support for Hezbullah etc would diminish. It would have to develop new oil/gas resources to make up for lost oilfields in lost territories whereby more might be shipped to market and reduce prices further.

Believing that any part of Iran's territory can be 'lost' or split from the rest of the country is as absurd as believing that Washington or New York or New Jersey can be split away from the United States.

As for nuclear proliferation, we dont have any nuclear weapons to proliferate. And in regards to Hezbollah they have the support of not just Shi'as but generally of ordinary Muslims all over the Middle East. So i dont see the connection between Hezbollah and your grand scheme of "fermenting fracture from within Iran". You are under-appreciating the bonds of religion that tie Hezbollah to the Islamic Republic.

Demographics of Iran - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Iran newspaper cockroach cartoon controversy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Today.Az - Iran links Azeri riots in Tabriz to Ahwaz intifada
Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Kurds fight for freedom on Iran-Iraq border - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

Overall, a pretty poor 'theory'.

Id fail you if this were something that needed to be graded.

If future American policy makers and strategists have to rely on something like wikipedia to learn about other nation's as you have done then the US's global power may just collapse a whole lot sooner than everyone else is anticipating.

Regards,

We'll see who's collapsed first, and probably not all that far in the future.

I do not know where you got ethnic nationalism for Azeris and Arabs. I specifically wrote economic or democratic institutions (in Azerbaidjan and other places NOT IRAN) to tie in border groups in Iran to those institutions in mother countries. This is not ethnic nationalism. This is economic or participatory socialization to shift the ideology of my best outcome is not in Iran but in the other country.

If students are subsidized for learning language and their economic livelihood improves due to trips back and forth others will follow creating ties and viable economic links.

There are always local leaders, governors, mayors, shekhs, police captains etc...

Iran buying wheat from the U.S. is not a good sign mind you. They could have waited and got it from Kazakhstan or Russia. Russia is projected to have a bumper crop. But they didn't wait because they can't. Once food shortages happen due to poor distribution the regions on the borders will tie in economically further with the countries bordering them especially since language and ethnicity is the same. Makes it much easier.

You assume that what I mentioned isn't happening by itself but it is. Its normal development of things the problem is if you accelerate it, its possible to destabilize Iran in a faster period of time.