Shek

Not so much. It might pay to listen to OoE and Z.

Transformation Underway in South Korea

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"So little pains do the vulgar take in the investigation of truth, accepting readily the first story that comes to hand." Thucydides 1.20.3

Bella

Can the U.S. destroy Iran if it came to all out war!!........YES!!......of coarse!!
Can the U.S. occupy Iran like Iraq right now.........NO!!

The U.S. can easily destroy Iran's' military without a doubt! That is an easy question.

ba1025

of course we can the problems start after we defeat their army

Zemco

It's fairly straight forward. The attacks on alleged nuclear weapons facilities will be diversions to conceal the real target, the oil and natural gas rich province of Khuzehstan.

Phase I (3 Hours)

Extra-Theater Air - B-2 and B-117 aircraft will attack alleged nuclear weapons facilities at Arak, Nantaz and Esfahan as a diversion, effectively pinning some Iranian air units in the north to protect Tabriz, Tehran and other facilities and sites. Other B-2 and B-117 aircraft will attack primary airfields in southern Iran to prevent air squadrons from deploying to their forward operating bases. B-2s will target C2 and power generation facilities while B-52s launch cruise missiles at other targets.

In-Theater Air - Iraqi based F-16s and F-15s will conduct CAPs along the Iraqi-Iranian border, while Kuwaiti based units conduct the first 16 of 32 sorties in the Zagros Mountains against bridges and road passes. Additional sorties assisted by special operations units will target Iranian recon units on the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border units who perform a function similar if not identical to the 2nd ACR, 11th ACR, 16/5 Lancers and others in the old "1 k Zone."

Carrier 1 - Primary mission is air cover for ground operations. SEAD missions will eliminate air defenses while F-18s attack the barracks where most if not all Iranian troops will be asleep at 0330 (zulu). The 2 straight leg infantry divisions, the tank division and the mechanized infantry division will be essentially rendered combat ineffective in a matter of minutes.

Carrier 2 - Primary missions is SEAD and air superiority.

Carrier 3 (Arabian Sea) - Primary missions is SEAD, air superiority and attacks on forward operating bases and C2 targets.

Group 1 - Supporting ground forces in Khuzehstan will launch cruise missiles at ammunition storage areas and fuel depots reducing combat by Iranian forces in the province to less than 30 days maximum, and attack other ground based threats.

Groups 2 & 3 - Launching cruise missile attacks on shore based anti-ship batteries, air defense units and Iranian naval vessels in their area.

French carrier group/British surface group - Seek and destroy Iranian naval vessels, shore-based anti-ship missile batteries, air defense units and protect civilian shipping in the Persian Gulf.

ARG 1 - a marine division will be airlifted to the eastern approaches as a blocking force. A marine amphibious brigade will establish and secure a beach-head to bring their armor, artillery and air defense ashore.

ARG 2 - a marine division will be airlifted to secure the only 2 bridges crossing the Karun River. The MAB will land and secure the port facilities.

Army Group - 5 brigade combat teams will race across the border to link up with the marine division and begin river crossing operations.

Phase II (6 Hours)

Extra-Theater Air - Continued attacks will degrade Iranian and and ground units in the operational area.

In-Theater Air - CAP continues and the remaining 16 sorties in the Zagros Mountains are completed. Now the only way into Khuzehstan Province to reinforce or resupply whatever remains of Iranian ground forces is through the eastern approaches, a very narrow area where Iranian units can be cannalized and destroyed en masse quickly with little effort.

Carrier 1 - Guided by special operations units, F-18s continue attacking the hapless Iranian units as survivors of the initial attack attempt to marshal and organize. Destruction of division supply trains, ammunition and fuel depots reduces the fighting time to a maximum of 15 days.

Carrier 2 - Continues air superiority.

Carrier 3 (Arabian Sea) - Continues air superiority and attacks on targets of opportunity.

Groups 1, 2 & 3 - Continues with air defense, destruction of remaining Iranian naval vessels and shore based threats.

French carrier group/British surface group - Seek and destroy Iranian naval vessels, shore-based anti-ship missile batteries, air defense units and protect civilian shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Ground Forces - Having completed the river crossing, now move to close with and destroy remaining Iranian army and militia units.

From that point it's more of the same. The US will have a clear view of any Iranian units who would foolishly attempt to move north along the coastal roads or south from Tabriz/Tehran and enter the province. It would be like the Highway of Death (x 100).

The US will claim "mission accomplished" with end of the "nuclear weapons threat" and the security of Iraq enhanced with the Revolutionary Guard militias degraded/destroyed. It will claim it was necessary to invade Khuzehstan to prevent disruption of oil and natural gas supplies.

The province has 80% of Iran's oil and 4% of the world's oil, and too bad for the Japanese and Chinese since all of it will now be sold in US$ which will help prop up the sagging US$ against other currencies, especially the Euro.

Iran will have only the 20% of its oil (1% of the world's oil) in the provinces of West Azir and East Azir bordering Azerbaijan. Iran will overnight change from a net exporter of oil to a net importer of oil, and with the loss of oil and natural gas revenues from Khuzehstan, Iran's economy will collapse as it won't be able to pay the monthly salaries to the government and military, and will be forced to cut back its massive monthly social welfare payments for food stamps/subsidies, health care, rent and unemployment benefits.

The beautiful thing is that the US can promise the Kurds, Lors, Baluchs and others that if they rise up against the government, the US will support them. And just like Iraq, they will fall for the US bullsh*t hook, line and sinker and rise up and the US will do nothing but laugh while a few hundred thousand Iranian Kurds, Lors and Baluchs are slaughtered, then the US will claim a "No-Fly Zone" is needed and the US, UK and France will set up airbases in Iranian Kurdistan and Baluchistan so that the US can maintain a presence in Iran for an indefinite period until a more opportune time presents itself for the US to invade and effect regime change, unless a friendly regime comes to power before sometime along the way (and that was the US game plan in Iraq and it worked so there's no reason to believe it won't work a second time).

As far as Khuzehstan, those are not Persians, they're Arabs. You might be asking WTF? What are Arabs doing in Iran? Well, you'd have to have a seance to discuss that with the drunken fat slob pig Churchill, since he drew the borders.

90% of the population in Khuzehstan are Arabic tribes and clans whose blood kin are in Kuwait and Iraq. They have attempted 14 times in the last 100 years to break free from Iran, most recently during the 1979 "revolution" and again during the Iraq-Iran War. They would view the US as liberators, at least initially. Leave it to an idiot ivy school graduate to screw things up, but the best thing for the US would be to allow a referendum to see if the Arabs want to unite with Kuwait, unite with Iraq (or both), or form their own country.

dark-alias

we were able to do that because of the success of Operation Foal Eagle. why spend sustainment money when you dont have too. and to the iran ? it would be almost to easy for the U.S. to take them down and leave them lets say in an Afghan situation before we went there. Step 1. destroy there conventional forces, topple gov't. etc.etc..... step 2 once intial phase complete rape iran of all natrual resources, tech. its educated, and get rid of anyone who wont come freely, just total deprivation of anything worth really anything in todays standing and then a sytematic pull-out so instead of trying to build a nation we strip them of the ability to be a nation. but only if america was a little more extreme. I could go on into some serious details but from my point of view this gives the broad example.

zraver

Welcome to the Board Tom Clancy.

Now back to reality.

The facts-

We cannot airlift 2 marine divisions. hell we cant even concentrate 2 Marine divisions without tipping the US's hand.

Iran is not making A-bombs yet, but has its best SAM assets located around these targets. The smart move is to borrow a page from Nimitz and bypass them and concentrate on more important areas.

Iran has said that any use of the GCC nations or other Iranian neighbors by the US in an attack on Iran will bring retribution. ASAIK, all have said no to the US conducting offensive operations from thier territory.

Iran has at least several hundred and possibly several thousands SRBM and IRBM some are true ballistic missiles with at least limited MIRV capability.

Iran has one of the worlds largest supplies of sea mines- inlcuding some rocket mines.

Iran has hundreds of speed boats and nearly 100 FAC's that are nearly ideal for a Persian Gulf region littoral fight.

Iran has hundreds of jet aircraft including some that are a very real threat to US assets.

Iran has said it will block the shipment of tankers out of the Persian Gulf if war breaks out.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards forces occupy the Thunds and several militarized offshore platforms.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards members may well be suicidal, this includes runs to hijack tankers and sink them across the shipping lanes (physical block) and or drive up insurance premiums (economic block) or possibly run them at the GCC terminals.

Any overt surge by US forces including flights of B-2's lifting off from Missouri will be obvious and tip the US hand.

Iran has a plethora of anti-shipping missiles including a few hundred modern or semi modern large missiles that can threaten any surface vessel they find.

Now given those facts, if the US decides that war is the better option what will the US have to use.

If one or more VLCC+ sized vessels gets ripped apart it will be like a nuke going off in the gulf as far as ecologic damage is concerned.

Iran will probably pop missiles at Israel.

Syria might attack Israel.

6 dollar a gallon gas will be a bargain.

Offensively

4 carriers- 2 in the Gulf, 1 replacement enroute, and 1 snuck into the area (yes you can sneak a carrier). At least 1 carrier has to remain inside the Gulf to avoid giving the game away. The carrier group in the Gulf might well be doomed no matter what we do and that could mean thousands of US dead in days not years.

USS Ohio (154 cruise missile complement)

What ever planes are on normal rotation at Deigo Garcia

4 or some MARG/ARG/MEF's attached to the carriers.

about 140 Hornets and Super Hornets, a couple dozen Sea Cobras, possibly a few AV-8's, some Sea Kings

a couple of seal teams,

several extra attack subs besides whats with the carriers.

Defensively

Gulf based tac-air to protect the ingulf carrier and merchant shipping.

At least 1 Aegis system plus THAAD/PAC batteries.

JSTARS/AWACs/RIVETs. at least for the in gulf defensive fight.

Possibly- allied nations (UK/Fr/GCC) forces for protection of merchant shipping.

Now Iran does have several weaknesses. It's coastal radar net is not 100% an the radar net is even weaker in the interior.

Iranian forces on the Thunds or platforms cannot re-up thier combat power.

Iranian sea assets are individually weak and the majority will not be at sea.


wave 1 if you want to call it waves won't give a damn about Iraq. The Army is on its own. The only support it will get will be its own Apaches. Gola #1 will alays be keeping the Straits of Hormuz open.

Ground- be taking down Abu Musa and the other Thund Islands (USMC assault) and the off shore platforms (SEAL). These islands and platforms are the only place Iran can use the majority of its shorter legged anti-shipping missiles or provide reliable course correction data to the bigger missiles that can be fired from Iran proper. iran has spent a decade digging in about 4-6000 Guards troops here.

Sea- The carrier planes and attack subs will be trying to sink as much of the Iranian navy as possible in port. The subs will hunt the Iranian subs first. Cluster bombs will be the weapon of chose vs the speed boat sheds and boat crew barracks. Larger vessels will get individual missiles. However the bulk of USN air power will be doing SEAD work.

Air and Command/Control- USS Ohio several other attack subs and what ever bombers the air force has at DG will be dumping tomahawks across Iran with the emphasis on F-14, F-4, and Su-24 fields. Thy will also be hitting radio/TV transmitters, server farms, and telephone exchanges to induce friction into the Iranian communications.

TopHatter

LOL...good one.

You forgot one other problem with his scenario...the F-117 is now history.

Officer of Engineers

If this is an example of your forward strategic thinking, I will be learning to speak Farsi right now.

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Chimo

Zemco

I wasn't in the air farce, but surely you're capable of adapting, perhaps using F-22s, so I don't see how it would be a problem, unless Canadians were on the ground and US ANG units were flying.

S-2

"...unless Canadians were on the ground and US ANG units were flying."

Who are you, you mindless prick, to make light of something like that in the course of a conversation?

Do you think this is a joke to us?

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

Walking Dead

Sir, great post! I may not have caught this but, what do you think our options are for a ground incursion from Iran-Iraq border? I am leaving this question open-ended purposely. In addition, given Iran's threat of retribution to any GC nation that assists US, to what extent do you think we will be able to use their resources?

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Igor Vovchanchyn: (halting for a moment) "Well, it's bad. Americans took everything over, but aren't paying much. Monopoly doesn't lead to a good stuff. It would be better if PRIDE was still alive."

Zemco

Sure it can, in fact the marines from the ARGs have been training in Kuwait for the last few years to do precisely that.

And so what if the US tips its hand?

Are you suggesting that:

1) Iranian tank divisions will enter the Indian Ocean and drive across the sea bottom and surface undetected in the delta attacking the marines from the rear?; or

2) Iranian units will tunnel under the Zagros Mountains over the next 40 years and surface in Khuzehstan to attack?; or

3) Iranian units will invade Iraq through Kurdistan then travel south to Basra, engaging and defeating US and multi-national forces before turning east to flank US units?

No kidding. They aren't needed.

Okay, the Iranians launch from shore and the SRBMs land 75 miles out in the Persian Gulf water, go Boom! and lots of fishies die while the US sailors munch on popcorn.

Or,

The Iranians try to move undetected to an area close near the eastern approaches were they can launch and the marines can enjoy the fireworks from a safe distance while munching on MREs.

No such thing as a MIRVd IRBM, you know, it's the physics thing.

The Russians had an IRBM that was a MRV (that's M-R-V not M-I-R-V).

Iran's IRBMs don't work well anyway, in part because they still haven't figured out the "ballistic" part of "ballistic missile" so 50 that can't fly or 500,000 that can't fly makes no difference.

Besides, doesn't the US have the vaunted Patriot anti-anti-anti-anti-missile thingy? Heck an Arleigh Burke with a RIM-156 and a SPY-1D AS would work just as well.

So then why is the US navy still afloat in the Persian Gulf? Those mines won't do any good unless their deployed, and there's no doubt they are not, since carrier battle groups and amphibious ready groups continually sail in, around and out of the Persian Gulf.

Yes, and the US has Hawkeyes and a variety of surface search helicopters and submarines with sonar to locate them. So what? In a state of war the US will be shooting and asking questions later.

And the US has none? I would be the last person to down-play the threat of Iranian aircraft, but that's where stealth bombers come in to play. The Iranian air force is only effective if the squadrons can disperse to their forward operating bases. If the runways at the major bases get cratered, the squadrons cannot deploy and are no threat to the US.

And Roger Ellersbydorman of No 2 Clydall High Road said he'd pick his nose, so what?

Iran will not block the Straight of Hormuz.

Hello? Is there anybody out there? What do you all think navy personnel have been doing in the Persian Gulf on their deployments, playing shuffle board, having a circle-jerk or watching Cats!?

All they do is plot and track targets 24/7.

So? Aren't there Navy SEALs?

Okay, so we all know the SEALs would screw it up, so we'll send marines, rangers, special ops. Who cares?

And Her Majesty's navy is going to sit around and watch? No, and neither is the US navy.

"Shi'a suicide bomber" is like an oxymoron. The Shi'a, with their shrines and saints and relics are like Eastern Orthodox and catholics. Suicide is a big taboo. No 72 virgins or romping in Allah-Land if you commit suicide.

Does anyone have any evidence of a Shi'a suicide attack with multiple confirmed sources, preferably independent sources (and global security/global research/Wayne Madsen and the other doofs don't count)?
Because I'm not aware of any suicide attacks carried out by Shi'a.

Sunni suicide attacks, sure, Sunni is nearly synonymous with Protestant. There are Protestant sects that dance with snakes or lick frogs or speak in tongues and what not, and Sunnis have the same sects. There's Pentacostals where the women wear dresses and don't cut their hair, and the Sunnis have the same sects.

Anyway, it would be physically impossible to block the Strait of Hormuz, if for no other reason than it would take hours to assemble enough tankers, and get them into position before being sunk.

Obviously a newbie.

That's a problem that presents itself to the US air force, but contrary to what you might believe, they're keenly aware of that.

Regardless, the air force knows how to deal with it, which is why no one saw the B-2s or B-1s leave for Iraq, or saw them leave for Afghanistan, or the B-2s leave for Yugoslavia, or saw FB-111s or B-1s leave for the first Iraq war, or FB-111s leave for Libya.

I could move the B-2s from Whiteman to Guam or Diego Garcia and you wouldn't know anything about it was all over.

So what? All surface-to-surface anti-ship missile batteries have been tracked and targeted for the last 6 years. They'll be destroyed in the first 10 minutes of combat, without firing a missile.

What facts? You're a little out of your league.

You might want to study the designs a little more carefully, or at least talk to the reactor crewman.

Again, I see no evidence that Iran has figured out the "ballistic" part of "ballistic missile" or that the missiles have functioning conventional warheads.

A Sunni country would attack Israel because why? A Shi'a country is under attack?

Gosh, if I was Sunni Syria and I did nothing, and Shi'a Iran collapsed into civil war, then Shi'a Iran couldn't fund the Shi'a Hezbollah that was up my Sunni ass 24/7 trying to take over my country, right?

No, the US will have control of the oil, which is the objective of the conflict.

1,000s of US dead? Why? Is your mother cooking for them?

Shek

Why don't you take a time out for that childish retort. See you in 30 days.

S-2

I move for permanence to his current status.

Walking Dead

I second the motion.