Zemco

I think people generally have a difficult time differentiating foreign policy and geo-strategy.

Geo-strategy is planned and implemented by career bureaucrats who are in Washington 20, 25, 30, or even 40 years. No country can be successful if it allows a "temporary employee" breezing through every 4 to 8 years to set geo-strategy.

The capital investment in time, money, resources and personnel to establish a geo-strategic policy is tremendous and you can't keep jumping from Asia to Africa to the ME, to South America, back to the ME, back to Asia, then back to the ME every 4 to 8 years. The list of countries that tried that and failed is long and distinguished.

Whether one is for or against the US, you have to view its geo-strategy objectively, and in that regard, the US has done exactly what it needs to do exactly when it needs to do it (for the most part). Sure, there's some flaws, but that's to be expected. There are some foreign policy areas the US really screwed up that would have made it easier to attain its geo-strategic objectives, like Iran, Afghanistan before 9-11 (the US had a golden opportunity when Daud came to power in 1974), and it should have paid more attention to Pakistan between 1947 and 1979, but overall the US has done well.

The US is locked into its current geo-strategy for the time being. If someone can offer a viable alternative to the current US strategy, then I'd like to see it, because I don't believe there is one, at least not one that Joe & Jane American would be willing to accept.

The Russians have been equally brilliant in their efforts to thwart US goals and objects, and we'll find out how successful those actions were over the next 10 years or so.

The Chinese have also made some excellent plays, so no one will be suffering from a lack of entertaining hair-pulling tension in the coming years.

Iran is the next logical move for the US, and if it fails, then I think it would be best to shift its foreign policy in furtherance of its geo-strategy to focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, and play the Baluchistan card.

Officer of Engineers

Oh horse crap! Go back 20, 35, 30, and even 40 years ago, find me one reference that either the Soviets or us would be in Afghanistan.

You're just another academic who thinks he knows more about the world than what actually do occur.

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Chimo

Zemco

Why would you want to present a fallacious argument based on a false premise? And why would you, with your moniker being "Officer of Engineers," automatically make a baseless assumption that geo-strategy is unchanging and never evolving?

The objective of the MECAS strategy hasn't changed since it was formulated in 1974, but that does not mean that the overall strategy has not evolved. Afghanistan was not originally part of the strategy, because was essentially a great rock devoid of anything of value. If the country had disappeared, the world would have actually benefited.

The fact that Daud overthrew the constitutional monarchy in 1974 isn't relevant to US geo-strategy. The fact that he was overthrown by the military in 1978 isn't relevant either. The fact that the military was over thrown by a pro-Soviet group shortly thereafter is of no relevance, and neither is the fact that the pro-Soviet Afghan government beat off a counter-coup by the military and then a subsequent counter-coup by Daud's supporters.

That the pro-Soviet government had lost supporters, equipment, weapons and munitions defending against the counter-coup attempts is of no relevance, except to the extent that they were in no position to stop an army of tribes from the northwest from marching on Kabul. Likewise, they were in no position to stop a second army of northern tribes heading toward Kabul, nor could they stop a 3rd army (the core of what is today the Taliban) coming from the south.

The logical conclusions one could draw is that whichever army got to Kabul first was going to be the next government of Afghanistan, and if the present pro-Soviet government wanted to remain in power, it was going to need massive military assistance from an ally.

The pro-Soviet Afghan government asked the Soviets for help, and the Soviets obliged. If you bought into the Zbigniew Brzezinski and Gary Sick nonsense story of unprovoked Soviet aggression with designs on Iran hook-line-and-sinker, then that doesn't say much about your war-gaming skills.

Afghanistan did not figure into US geo-strategy until the mid-1990s, and then only to the extent that it was a potential oil and natural gas pipeline route.

The Clinton Administration was successful in exerting US hegemony in Central Asia, allowing UNOCAL (now Chevron) to purchase the rights to 75% of the oil and natural gas in the region. The oil and natural gas reserves, according to experts, may be 3-5 times larger than that of the Middle East.

For certain oil and natural gas fields, there are only 4 possible pipeline routes, through the mountains, through Russia, through Iran or through Afghanistan.

Enron's bid for a mountain pipeline got shot down after Lloyd's of London commented that it would never insure such a project, and that sent the banks running, taking any hopes of financing the project with them. The US does not want to see the pipelines run through Russia or Iran.

So, Afghanistan is not part of the overall grand strategy, it's just a side-show however, that might change if the US is locked out of Iran.

The US lost control in Central Asia, getting booted from its airbases and military facilities Clinton built in part because the US has a difficult time exerting its influence. The US needs an air and land corridor to those states and the best route is through Iran. The only other possibility would be for the US to recognize the independence of Baluchistan and set up a puppet government in hopes that it will one day eventually control Afghanistan and be able to get the pipeline under construction.

Once the US is sitting on the borders of the Central Asian states, it will be able to much more effectively wield its power and influence (assuming the US isn't a 3rd World country by 2015).

I speak 5 languages, but only learned one at university. I learned the others living in those countries, and yes, I had my ass in the grass just like everyone else. I was constantly promoted ahead of my peers in part because my thinking is not rigid, not inflexible, not myopic, not parochial, and I can quickly adapt and react to changing situations.

Officer of Engineers

Because I've seen real life jumped up and bite us in the butt. 11 September caused a complete left turn in everything and I ain't buying your story that this was anywhere being foreseen.

It doesn't say much about your read either. They shot the guy who asked for help.

Did we ever thought to commit blood and tears to that adventure? I ain't buying this crap one bit.

Ray

Tough call!

God and Bush alone know!

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"Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination."

I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to.

HAKUNA MATATA

Dreadnought

I still say it wont be the U.S..

__________________
Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

Ray

Albany Rifles

[quote=WorldCitizen;476224]They seem quite comparable to me. It's not my intention to offend or upset anyone.

QUOTE]

Bullcrap

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“When the gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.” — Oscar Wilde

S-2

Totally.

I think that's actually a bannable comment. World Citizen is long-gone but doesn't deserve to return nor should others see that and believe it's tolerated.

I'll miss ZEMCO if he doesn't return, but not world citizen. A feather merchant with no game.

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"This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

Zemco

I never said 9-11 was foreseen, but involvement in Afghanistan clearly was, because the US was ferrying arms and munitions to northern tribal militias from its bases in Central Asia with assistance from India for several years prior to 9-11.

The attack on the passenger train in India was payback for India's involvement, and maybe you forgot about the September 9,2001 assassination of General Ahmed Shah Massoud, the leader of Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance and primary beneficiary of US military aid who was working on overthrowing the uncooperative Taliban who were holding up the Centgas pipeline project.

Regardless, 9-11 did not cause "a complete left-turn in everything." Do you even have a clue how long it takes to set up an intelligence network and bring it to a point where it's providing information of value? And we're talking about Central Asian states that are tribal/clan based societies that have Turko-Mongolic tribes the vast majority of Americans don't even know exist who speak languages even fewer people know exist. Which tribes/clans would be hostile/sympathetic to US interests? What are the inter-clan and inter-tribal dynamics? Who forms the intelligentsia, who are the most influential leaders, and who has the ability to be a future puppet leader?

You don't abandon your strategy and investment of billions of dollars, plus time and resources spent just because a building falls down.

I wasn't commenting on the wisdom, ethics or morality of it, just stating the facts. It's a tribal and clan based society, so what do you expect? I don't recall democracy reigning supreme in 10th Century Europe, even though those societies had evolved from tribal/clan based to feudal societies. That should give you a clue as to how long problems will persist in Afghanistan (and Iraq and everywhere such societies exist).

Well, as I pointed out previously, the US had been arming and supplying the northern Afghan tribes from its bases in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for several years prior to 9-11, and the US wasn't doing that so the Afghans could have better quality Gun & Ammo shows at cheesy hotels and convention centers throughout the country.

Obviously you don't play chess. I'll be black, make your first move, and I already know the outcome of the game, because without any effort I can see the next 18 moves and every possible variation thereof, and if you can only see 2 or 3 moves ahead I'll employ a strategy that forces you to do exactly what I want you to do, when I want you do to it, then dismantle your lines and check-mate your king.

In spite of what you might believe, the US is not wandering around aimlessly like an insect. It has a "grand strategy" that has been in place since 1974. To be sure, that isn't the only strategy the US has. To my knowledge, the US ignored Africa, mostly because the general consensus was that when MECAS was brought to fruition around 2035 or so, Africa would be ripe for the picking. However, I would guess the US has re-evaluated that in light of recent developments there, including Chinese involvement, and has developed or is developing long-range strategy, but won't fully implement it until MECAS is near completion or the Chinese force the US hand. I have no interest in Africa, so I haven't looked for anything indicating what the US strategy might be.

lwarmonger

LOL! My money's on OoE, because that just smacks of overconfidence.

Officer of Engineers

Funny, I could've sworn those were Russian made AK-47s and RPGs in Massoud's arsenal.

Which was why the 22SAS went in 1st.

I was commenting on your read on unprovoked invasion. Clearly, the Soviets had a much different plan than what the Afghan communists had in mind. Soviet advisors kept the Afghan Army in their barracks while Air Assault troops landed. Afghan officers were rounded up and shot. Then, Moscow installed their own puppet. It was an invasion in every sense of the word. Not big brother coming to help of little brother.

Like I said, those were RPGs and AK-47s.

Funny, I did this for a living. Find my minefields 1st, then we'll talk.

So, in other words, you don't know what the hell is going on. I will buy that there are overall goals that the US want to achieve but the details changes those goals and at times, got to be abandoned. The US lost in Iran, Vietnam, Lebanon, and Somalia. I don't buy for one second that those goals don't change nor given up because of exacting circumstances. Before 11 September, none of us imagined that a fractured NATO Alliance is on the verge of collapse caused by Canada no less.

Parihaka

I'm talking about drawing a line in the sand, Dude. Across this line, you DO NOT...
What the **** are you talking about?
Walter, he peed on my rug!
He peed on the Dude's rug.

__________________
In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.
Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz

Parihaka

S-2

That rug really tied the room together, man. All I can say is at least I'm house-broken.