Will Israel attack?

**Ironduke** · 05 Nov 07,, 09:40

With the strike against the Osirak reactor in 1981, and news of a strike against a Syrian reactor under preliminary construction recently, do you think Israel will attempt an air or missile strike against the Iranian reactors if it seems apparent that Iran is developing nuclear weapons?

Should Israel strike? Can they? All opinions welcome.

**HistoricalDavid** · 05 Nov 07,, 10:39

If it does it does with the permission of the United States, and if I were the United States I'd much rather do it myself. At this point, whatever Israel does will be a sideshow to the main MOP-bustin' spectacle.

It will be difficult for Israel to do anything. Their aircraft will be at the very limit of their fuel legs due to long range, possible terrain-hugging ingress, heavy ordnance and possible evasive manoeuvres if engaging with enemy IADS. I can't imagine fighter-bombers, possibly backed up by refuelling tankers, conclusively knocking out a programme like that (which has doubtlessly looked at Syria and Iraq's experiences) at those distances, which is why the US should do it itself if the situation comes to that.

**Dreadnought** · 05 Nov 07,, 18:25

After all of the provocations by Iran? I think the answer is quite aparent if forced to break up Irans "game" they have been playing.

**~~Feanor~~** · 05 Nov 07,, 19:50

They'd have a hard time doing. They would have to fly over American Iraq, which means that it would take U.S. approval. Iran is also somewhat further ahead then Syria, and certainly has a somewhat more impressive aid-defense network.

**omon** · 05 Nov 07,, 20:03

why bother flying, just lunch gps quided cruse missle or two. lunch it from a ship or a sub.

**HistoricalDavid** · 05 Nov 07,, 20:07

Originally Posted by omon

why bother flying, just lunch gps quided cruse missle or two. lunch it from a ship or a sub.

That probably might not be enough to defeat hardened facilities. That's where the 30,000lb MOP comes in.

**Dreadnought** · 05 Nov 07,, 20:59

Originally Posted by Feanor

They'd have a hard time doing. They would have to fly over American Iraq, which means that it would take U.S. approval. Iran is also somewhat further ahead then Syria, and certainly has a somewhat more impressive aid-defense network.

Feanor, Not that the U.S. would sanction such an action. Iraq is Iraqi airspace not American or U.S. airspace. If Israel wanted to pull an airstrike they have many options available. Nobody conducts a sortie without other options available.

**~~Feanor~~** · 05 Nov 07,, 22:51

It's Iraqi air space patrolled by American aircraft. Just like it's Iraqi borders being secured by American troops. In any event it's highly unlikely that the Israelis will risk that kind of strike.

**Zinja** · 06 Nov 07,, 00:31

For the same reason that the US wouldn't allow Israel to interfere last time when provoked by Iraq, they wouldn't allow Israel to interfere against Iran. However, this premise would only stand if the stakes remain at current level. If something was to change drastically and the level of danger is hightened, if the US wouldn't do it for one reason or another, i believe Israel would do it.

**ColSherman82** · 06 Nov 07,, 00:57

Israel will allow the US to make a plan of attack and take care of business before Iran goes nuclear, however if the United States is unable or lets hope not unwilling to do the job, Israel will seal the deal.

Iran will do nothing against Israel after an attack anyways, a war with Hizbullah is likely, perhaps even Syria. However Iranian Generals know that a large attack thousands of missiles they claim, against Israeli population centers would result in a nuclear attack from Israel. They simply won't go down that road.

**Dreadnought** · 06 Nov 07,, 14:07

Originally Posted by Feanor

It's Iraqi air space patrolled by American aircraft. Just like it's Iraqi borders being secured by American troops. In any event it's highly unlikely that the Israelis will risk that kind of strike.

The only reasons why it is patrolled by the U.S. is that Iraqi forces are not quite ready to do both of the above assignments. When they are the U.S. will be more then happy to turn said undertakings over to the Iraqi forces. The resoning behind this is not only do they have to patrol these areas but also stopping the flow of weapons coming over the borders that do the actual damage. Like I was stating it is not U.S. airspace it is Iraqi airspace.

Fearnor, Many many other countries airspace are patrolled by American aircraft but this does not nesesitate a American pilot being at the stick.

**VarSity** · 06 Nov 07,, 14:17

I am fairly surprised an attack hasn't already been launched.

When I heard about the attack in Syria I was listening to the radio waiting for news of a simultaneous attack against Iran.

There doesn't seem to be that much Iran could do about it, or even much they could do in response. Sure they could try starting even more trouble in Iraq, but even that assumed the Revo guard re left in a good shape. In my mind, any attack again Iran's nuclear facilities will also involve a heavy pounding of the Revolutionary Guard. That way would have to focus all their efforts on keeping control within their boarders, and not causing trouble.

To echo what others have said, I dont see Israel going it alone.

**lwarmonger** · 07 Nov 07,, 02:12

Originally Posted by VarSity

There doesn't seem to be that much Iran could do about it, or even much they could do in response. Sure they could try starting even more trouble in Iraq, but even that assumed the Revo guard re left in a good shape. In my mind, any attack again Iran's nuclear facilities will also involve a heavy pounding of the Revolutionary Guard. That way would have to focus all their efforts on keeping control within their boarders, and not causing trouble.

Given how the Iranians have dispersed their nuclear sites, it is doubtful that Israel could manage an effective attack against them (sans nukes), much less a simultanious strike against the Revolutionary Guard.

Also, launching an unsuccessful attack of that nature means that when the first Iranian nuke does detonate, it happens in downtown Tel Aviv... not some test site out in the desert. If the Iranians can generate enough doubts about culpability, they might not even have to ride out a full scale Israeli counterstrike (at least not one directed entirely at them).

**Bella** · 07 Nov 07,, 05:57

Iran has stated that it want Isreal wiped off the map! I know that if I was a leader of a country, and another country wanted me destroyed....I just might have to attack before they achieve nuclear weapons.

**VarSity** · 07 Nov 07,, 08:55

Originally Posted by lwarmonger

Given how the Iranians have dispersed their nuclear sites, it is doubtful that Israel could manage an effective attack against them (sans nukes), much less a simultanious strike against the Revolutionary Guard.

Also, launching an unsuccessful attack of that nature means that when the first Iranian nuke does detonate, it happens in downtown Tel Aviv... not some test site out in the desert. If the Iranians can generate enough doubts about culpability, they might not even have to ride out a full scale Israeli counterstrike (at least not one directed entirely at them).

Actually my suggestion of an attack was with the US involved, as I cant see Israel every going it alone on this one.

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