lex

Although Jewish lobby is one the powerfull in the world but i dont think that they will attack without any strong reason. I think US gonna wait for the presidential election results 2008 after that they will be able to make a new war policy against IRAN.. Israel cant do this all alone.

lwarmonger

The American Israeli lobby is not as strong as most Muslims believe. It is strong, but not strong enough to effect anything but our support for Israel.

Any strike we launch against Iran would be completely independent of that lobby.

lwarmonger

Saying those things and meaning them when annihilation is facing you are two different things. Look at the rhetoric of Mao before China acquired nuclear weapons (where he actually tried to get the Soviets and the US in a nuclear exchange) and after. China remains undestroyed.

Syria and Egypt are probably working on related technologies, and if Pakistan collapses then they could try to pass it off as a Pakistani nuke that happened to find its way into the wrong hands.

And the reason I suggested using the Revolutionary Guards is that they are a branch of the Iranian government that is also firmly connected to Hezbollah (and so can use those connections to assist with the nuke). Therefore they wouldn't have to start to move the nuke until they were ready for the attack.

lwarmonger

Also, Stan187, could you please stop posting replies like that, it really makes it hard when I'm responding to your responses.

lex

But do you really think it is gonna happen soon, I'm sure not... Iran is not Palestine...Its IRAN man they are ready for this, like they hv been waiting for this moment from ages.

lwarmonger

We could crush Iran without any difficulty.

Saddam was "ready" for us too. Twice.

Stan187

warmonger

It's interesting that you're not willing to consider their seriousness yet very willing to consider that if they do decide to do it, that they will do it in a most implausible scenario.

__________________
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1 Observer

The gap between Americas ability and what It is willing to do ... is a sadly smiling chasm ... So much is more is the pity.

1 Observer

What I'm reading, and what no one want's to talk about, Is the no delievery vehicle, un claimed package bomb scenario. Plausable (however thinly veiled) deniabilty ... Lets say ... no ... How about tell me about this!? The more I think about it the more it seems to cover all their bases.

Officer of Engineers

747s

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Chimo

1 Observer

That ain't right mate...Badly hinged,ect.
Sometimes the truth has no place in civilized discussion.

Stan187

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

1 Observer

Loosely translated ... You are correct, however, not in a comforting manner

Stan187

Ok good, that's what I thought, but I didn't want to just be guessing.

lwarmonger

Ok, you are kind of misrepresenting my position here. In no way do I think that Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is a good thing, nor do I think that they are nice and benevolent and have no desire to destroy anyone. What I am pointing out is that when a nation stares annihilation in the face, it scales back the rhetoric, and that the acquisition of nuclear weapons oftentimes acts as more of a braking force on a nation or leader than the possession of nukes by their opponents.

Take China. Before nukes, to listen to China was to think that the second they acquired nuclear weapons was the second they would start using them to cleanse the world of capitalism. That is why China was oftentimes considered worse than the Soviets in the 1960's... at least the Soviets were reasonable. The Chinese were madmen. And then they acquired nukes. Suddenly the Chinese became much more reasonable. Why? Because with nukes, if we misinterpreted what they said or meant, we (or the Soviets) might actually destroy them instead of just posturing. Why would we destroy them? Because they have nukes, and so things they say are more threatening once they have nuclear bombs and missiles then they were before.

If you read that link I gave you a little while ago, it really does make very interesting reading. It shows a few possible scenarios of nuclear war between the various Middle Eastern powers, and in none of those scenarios is Israel destroyed. However in all of the full scale nuclear ones Iran is (28 million dead out of a population of roughly 60 million counts as destroyed in my book). That is why I decided to come up with a scenario that maximizes the Iranian governments control over the nuke (using the Revolutionary Guards) while minimizing culpability. Because while the Iranians may want to use a nuclear weapon on Israel, they most certainly do not want a full scale nuclear exchange with them as the primary target.