JAD_333

It's hard not to.

Podhoretz has a decidedly Machiavellian outlook when it comes to Iran's possession of a nuclear enrichment capability. It's us or them. He reasons from a historical viewpoint. Nasty countries will exploit whatever means they have to get their way, and Iran's hostility and agressive regional ambitions are nasty indeed. Should their enrichment capability become de facto accepted by the world, I have no doubt they'll restart their efforts to get the bomb. By then, of course, it will likely be too late. Short of regime change in Iran, what else can we do but effect the destruction of their nuke enrichment facilities? We're like the guy who knows his lawn needs cutting, but keeps putting it off.

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1 Observer

So ... what will the last straw be? I agree it apears a certain thing ... I doubt they need the encouragement of our placation attemps.

Bluesman

I think Dubya will be known as Lawn-boy before the end of his term. He's noted for doing what he sees as The Right Thang, even if there's enormous political cost associated with it. And I believe he believes that this is not the kind of deal that you can hand off to your successor.

And if that's true I also believe that his instincts are correct, as they so often are.

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lwarmonger

I don't even think regime change would help. We would have to install a government with permanent puppet status or destroy a significant portion of the Iranian people in order to prevent them from the pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Bluesman

Well, I certainly don't see THAT as a given.

There are any number of ways this could break that ends in no Iranian nukes, and no Americans storming Tehran.

lwarmonger

From what I've read, a significant number of Iranian citizens consider nuclear capability as a right and an issue of national sovereignty... that is a problem, because it means that nuclear power/weapons would be a hot issue in any elected government that was set up.

Bluesman

They can think whatever the hell they'd like, but if we simply won't allow it - and I and Podhoretz and dalem all agree that we should NEVER allow it - then it's simply going to remain an unrealized wish.

I agree that it DOES represent a problem in the abstract, as in, whatever they're determined to do and we're determined to prevent will remain a point of conflict. But this is really the bottom line: it comes down to WILL. If we are determined enough to prevent it - and we certainly SHOULD be - then we have the means to do so, and they do NOT have the means to assert their own will.

And that's independent of whether we have set up a puppet government or destroyed huge numbers of Iranians. We can deny them nukes for as long as we maintain the will to do so.

And we SHOULD.

lwarmonger

The point I'm trying to make is that this problem won't find a solution in regime change or damaging the Iranian government because it springs from what the Iranian people believe is a right. Now if that attitude persists eventually they will get the bomb unless we install a government that is pliable (with its own set of problems).

If one looks at the long term problems of containment, it isn't really one that a democracy like the US is equipped to sustain. I agree that it is something we need to do and could, I just don't think that the American public is prepared to do it... meaning puppet government or nuclear war are the two likely outcomes.

My money is on Israel.

1 Observer

Where are we then ...
The American people un prepaired to do it ... So, lets assume we do nothing but Sanctions ... the gambit runs its course ... Iran gets Nukes. And then?
Every one says Isrial won't, Iran won't... Threatening with nukes is more powerfull than using them ... Iran wants or needs Isrial (WTF!?)
Besides Warmongerer'r and Bluesman ... Is the world blind? Or is this conflict so carved in stone that they WANT to see it? Who could possibly profit from a nuke exchange in the mid east?

lwarmonger

Russia.

1 Observer

Ouch! in a like Creepy ouch kind of way... I hate it when you're right like that.

Deltacamelately

Hehe...he

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Deltacamelately

Bluesman reply
Buesman, facts and knowledge apart, please keep debates within civil perimeters. OoE and Pari has been dealing with this gentleman quite effectively....you needn't lose your temper for nothing.

Deltacamelately

Okay...I get it....
So be it...I was kind of sad with the personal remarks.

Parihaka

WAB, and our moderation, is a constant work in progress and everything is subject to change. We've now asked Blues to return to what he does best, which is post devastatingly convincing arguments. It's been fun to read back through it all though