Considering a war with Iran - Page 30

S-2 · 10-29-2007, 09:29 AM

"What about an alpha team entering Iran and taking out their leader, then CIA-backed coup and voila: a new Shah?"

Fear not, VarSity. Our little Russian commie is just jerking our chains as only he can.

**Julie** · 10-29-2007, 12:04 PM

I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that the Shah has cancer and is dying, does anyone know if this is true?

zraver · 10-29-2007, 12:37 PM

He died years ago, 27 July, 1980.

Dreadnought · 10-29-2007, 12:51 PM

IMO If we continue the sanctions against Iran while continuing to interdict in their arming of these people in Iraq and bringing it more and more to the world stage the pressure will surely increase. Irans leader has an awful of people in thet country angry with him. Even his boss the Ayatolla has raised his eyebrows about the course of action he is taking both domesticly and on an international leve. Keep up the sanctions and the interference and time will tell.

**Julie** · 10-29-2007, 13:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zraver

He died years ago, 27 July, 1980.

That's not whom I'm speaking of.

Feanor · 10-29-2007, 13:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by S-2

"What about an alpha team entering Iran and taking out their leader, then CIA-backed coup and voila: a new Shah?"

Fear not, VarSity. Our little Russian commie is just jerking our chains as only he can.

[sarcasm]What? Chains? No no no. You're not a bunch of skins. The proper term is strings. Whenever anyone asks me if I play an instrument, I always tell them I play on peoples nerves.[/sarcasm]

EDIT: Ok. Notice I added the sarcasm brackets? Now do you get it?

**astralis** · 10-29-2007, 15:04 PM

julie,

Quote:

That's not whom I'm speaking of.

then which shah are you speaking of? i know only of the iranian shah and the afghani shah.

**Ironduke** · 10-29-2007, 18:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Julie

I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that the Shah has cancer and is dying, does anyone know if this is true?

The last Shah of Afghanistan died in July 2007... the last Iranian Shah, as stated, died in 1980.

JAD_333 · 10-29-2007, 18:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VarSity

Now thats very interesting.

I really hope thats not on the cards.

CIA backed coup = bad idea in my opinion.

I personnally abhor assassination of country leaders as a tactic. But I wonder why you think it's a bad idea. What would Iran do?

JAD_333 · 10-29-2007, 19:02 PM

That the US is willing to weather this economic realignment speaks volumes about US plans vis a vis Iran. China's plans to jump into the breach don't signify a whole lot. China knows which side of its bread is buttered; it's not going to fall on its sword for its Iran's market when it could lose its US and western markets. Pagmatic, they are.

Quote:

Iran Adapts to Economic Pressure
Oil Market Could Help It Weather U.S. Sanctions

By Steven Mufson and Robin Wright
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 29, 2007; Page A01

Confronted by mounting U.S. and U.N. pressure, Iran has been steadily shifting its trade from West to East and, with the benefit of record high oil prices, is likely to be able to withstand the new U.S. sanctions, according to U.S., European and Iranian analysts.

China, a permanent member of the Security Council that can veto any U.N. resolution, is expected to overtake Germany as Iran's biggest trading partner this year. Germany and other European countries had consistently been Iran's largest trading partners for more than a decade, according to the Iran

The U.S. Treasury said that more than 40 banks, mostly in Europe, have curbed business with Iran as a result of U.S. pressure, but smaller banks, Islamic financial institutions and Asian banks are likely to step in and replace the Western financial institutions through which Iran has long sold oil on the international market. Oil traders said that Iran does an increasing portion of its petroleum sales in euros and yen, instead of U.S. dollars, and often through third parties, to help its customers circumvent U.S. financial sanctions.

"Given particularly the price and demand for oil, Iran clearly has leverage with countries that need Iran's oil," said Shaul Bakhash, a George Mason University historian and author of "The Reign of the Ayatollahs." In addition, he said, "Iran has a huge cushion of foreign-exchange reserves."

Iran's oil revenue this year will far exceed the government's budget forecasts, which had assumed an average oil price of $60 a barrel. On Friday, oil settled above $90. The extra revenue will make it easier for the government to maintain social-services payments designed to bolster its popularity amid economic problems.

Iran has also moved to protect what Leo Drollas, chief economist of the Center for Global Energy Studies in London, calls its Achilles' heel -- gasoline imports. Because of its limited refining capacity, Iran last year imported 200,000 barrels a day of gasoline, about a third of its consumption. But the government has trimmed gasoline subsidies, which has curtailed consumption and smuggling, cutting imports of gasoline in half.

Nonetheless, U.S. efforts to exert financial pressure on Iran were having some impact, even before the new measures taken last week against firms linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Lukoil, a Russian company with an extensive gasoline marketing network in the United States, announced last Monday that its exploration work in Iran's big Anaran oil field "is currently impeded because of the U.S. sanctions," which bar investments of more than $20 million in Iran.

The U.S. sanctions, announced Thursday, complicate new oil projects by targeting Iran's main oil-field engineering firms. The firms are controlled by the Revolutionary Guard, which the Bush administration has accused of supporting terrorism and aiding nuclear proliferation. One of the firms sanctioned Thursday, Khatam al-Anbiya, is the rough equivalent of the Army Corps of Engineers, according to Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The Treasury Department said the firm had $7 billion of contracts in the oil, natural gas and transportation sectors.

European oil companies are holding off on exploration and production deals in Iran. Royal Dutch Shell, Total of France and Italy's ENI have held talks or reached preliminary agreements for new oil and gas projects in Iran in recent years. But now they say they are unlikely to move ahead, in large part because of the commercial terms Iran is offering.

Chinese oil companies have not signed contracts yet for commercial reasons, according to Julia Nanay, a Caspian region expert at PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm.

The picture on the financial front is similar. The United Arab Emirates, a key transit point for Iranian imports and a major financial center for Iran, had closed 42 firms doing business with Iran before the new sanctions list, said an official there.

He said it remained unclear how the new U.S. measures would affect Iran's Bank Melli, targeted by Treasury for allegedly facilitating ballistic and nuclear equipment purchases. The bank, Iran's largest, had nearly $1.4 billion in assets in its U.A.E. branches at the end of 2005, according to its Web site. Bank Melli also has branches in London, Paris and Hamburg.

Even if Iran finds ways around U.S. financial sanctions, U.S. pressure could increase the costs of Iran's international banking transactions. European and Japanese banks have made it more difficult for Iran to arrange letters of credit, Drollas said.

"Most of Kuwait's banks have stopped dealing with Iranian accounts," said Abdul Majeed al-Shatti, chairman of Commercial Bank of Kuwait. "There are opportunities in Iran. Unfortunately, we need to be part of the international system," he said. "We have a lot of dealings with the United States." He said his bank had not issued any letters of credit for transactions with Iran in more than a year.

"It raises the cost of operation for all Iranian banks," said Jahangir Amuzegar, a former Iranian finance minister and representative to the World Bank before Iran's Islamic revolution. "But whether sanctions are going to cripple banking operations, I don't think so. Sanctions are effective only if they are comprehensive and universal."

Germany and France have been slowly reducing banking exposure and government credit guarantees for exports to Iran, thus shrinking potential for losses in the event of a confrontation with Tehran. Germany issued about $2 billion of credit guarantees for trade with Iran in 2005, helping companies do business that might otherwise be too risky. This year, the government said, the guarantees will drop to about $715 million. France's embassy in Washington said French banks reduced their exposure to Iran from $5.7 billion in December 2005 to $3.8 billion a year by the end of 2006.

Both countries still buy oil from Iran.

The most important question may be what political and psychological impact the sanctions will have on Iran, especially with parliamentary elections next spring and presidential elections in 2009. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has faced growing internal rumblings over his erratic economic policies.

A few critics of the regime inside Iran have gone public. "Are we to endure the hardship of sanctions and other harsh measures on our nation as a result of our illogical and unreal glorification?" Mohsen Mirdamadi, former chairman of parliament's foreign relations committee, said at a reformist conference Friday.

But other observers said that sanctions had little political effect in places like Cuba, Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe), South Africa and North Korea. "Iranians have a strong sense of themselves," said J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy. "If these new sanctions create internal problems and cause the people to unify, then they won't work. But if the sanctions can drive a wedge" between the regime and its constituents, they have a chance to work.

Sanctions could even generate greater resistance. "This is a regime that hates to be seen to be backing off under international and U.S. pressure, so it seems unlikely that the threat of international sanctions alone will cause the Iranians to back off on the nuclear issue," said Bakhash, the George Mason historian.

Carnegie's Sadjadpour said: "These sanctions are not negligible, and they're not going to be pain-free for Iran. The question is: Will they be substantial and painful enough to change Iranian behavior? No, I don't think they will be."

washingtonpost.com - nation, world, technology and Washington area news and headlines

JAD_333 · 10-30-2007, 13:07 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/wo...iran.html?_r=1
&hp&oref=slogin

Quote:

By NAZILA FATHI
Published: October 31, 2007 (date there)

TEHRAN, Oct. 30 � The Russian foreign minister will make a surprise visit to Iran today to meet with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and discuss Iran�s nuclear program, Russian and Iranian news agencies reported.

Sergey V. Lavrov, who was on a visit in Kazakhstan in Central Asia, said he would make a working visit to Iran to meet Mr. Ahmadinejad in Tehran at 4 p.m. local time, the Interfax news agency reported.

In Moscow, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mikhail Kamynin, said Mr. Lavrov would discuss Iran�s nuclear activities as well as bilateral ties, Interfax said.

A number of issues connected to the situation around Iran's nuclear program and a number of questions of bilateral questions will be discussed, the news agency reported.

Mr. Lavrov's visit comes two weeks after the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, made a landmark trip to Iran, the first Kremlin leader to travel there since 1943. Mr. Putin has insisted on a diplomatic solution to the international standoff over Iran�s nuclear program.

After Mr. Putin�s visit, Iran�s former chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said the Russian president had delivered a proposal to Iran�s supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on state matters.

Neither the Iranians nor the Russians would disclose any details, but Mr. Larijani said that it involved a new way to help resolve the nuclear standoff and that the Iranian side was studying it.

State-run television and news agencies quoted Ayatollah Khamenei at the time as telling Mr. Putin, �We will think about what you said and about your proposal,� even as he added that Iran was �determined to provide our country�s need for nuclear energy.�

Mr. Larijani resigned last week over differences with Mr. Ahmadinejad.

Since then the United States announced new unilateral sanctions on Iran, accusing its Revolutionary Guards of illegally spreading weapons of mass destruction.

Mr. Putin criticized the move. �Why worsen the situation by threatening sanctions and bring it to a dead end?� he asked, according to news agencies.

JohnFlint1985 · 11-01-2007, 10:41 AM

Somehow I don't believe that sanctions will do anything with Iran. For them it is an inconvenience - but not a life threatening condition. IN the meantime they will double their efforts to obtain the nukes since in their minds it is the best guarantee that they will be never attacked provided they have it. In fact i think that sanctions will add up to their defiance.

Russian card is very complicated in that matter. Iran is a competition for the natural gas export Russia so aggressively pursue in Europe. It is one of very few real trump cards they have. So Moscow sees an opportunity to help Iran while helping themselves. Russia don't want any additional pipe lines to be constructed to the west of Caspian sea. It also is trying to stall American sponsored project to construct another pipeline from Turkmenistan across the Caspian and into Turkey. Iran and Turkmenistan are seen as a serious competition on the European market. So Russia will never join the sanctions. By retaining good relations with Iran Russia believes it will be able to thwart any potential expansion of Iran natural gas to the west.

Also there is another player in Iran problem - India. India wants to have a pipe line constructed with natural gas from Iran to India. This is a very politically big issue since China sees it as a direct threat to their almost exclusive relation with Tehran. So in my mind two things can happen. 1 India - China rivalry for natural resources and not in some distant future but now. 2 India may sharply oppose any sanctions against Iran if the pipe line deal will come through. Also it may bring a cool down on the US-India relations.

In all Iran problem is tied to other three and in my mind will continue getting bigger and complicated with time. So some sort of resolution to it is in our interests as soon as possible.

**Julie** · 11-01-2007, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ironduke

The last Shah of Afghanistan died in July 2007... the last Iranian Shah, as stated, died in 1980.

I found the article:

Pajamas Media: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Reported Dead -- Still Unconfirmed

January 4, 2007 11:35 AM

A source close to Pajamas Media has learned that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has apparently succumbed to the cancer that hospitalized him last month, as exclusively reported by Pajamas Media, at age 67. He has been Iran’s most powerful figure since replacing Ayatollah Khomeini in the role of Supreme Leader in 1989.

I'm not real familiar with the government in Iran but is the Shah considered Supreme Leader, and have final say on issues over the PM ?

Feanor · 11-01-2007, 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Julie

Pajamas Media: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Reported Dead -- Still Unconfirmed

Not exactly a Shah.

dave lukins · 11-01-2007, 13:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Feanor

Not exactly a Shah.

Shah Pahlevi was "asked" to leave in 1979 by Khomeini on his return from exile in France.

10-29-2007, 09:29 AM	#436 (permalink)
S-2 *Military Professional* Join Date: 09-11-06 Location: Portland, Oregon Posts: 2,115 Country:	Feanor/VarSity Reply "What about an alpha team entering Iran and taking out their leader, then CIA-backed coup and voila: a new Shah?" Fear not, VarSity. Our little Russian commie is just jerking our chains as only he can. __________________ "This aggression will not stand, man!" Jeff Lebowski

10-29-2007, 12:51 PM	#439 (permalink)
Dreadnought *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 05-12-05 Posts: 5,330 Country:	IMO If we continue the sanctions against Iran while continuing to interdict in their arming of these people in Iraq and bringing it more and more to the world stage the pressure will surely increase. Irans leader has an awful of people in thet country angry with him. Even his boss the Ayatolla has raised his eyebrows about the course of action he is taking both domesticly and on an international leve. Keep up the sanctions and the interference and time will tell. __________________ Fortitude.....The strength to persist...The courage to endure.

11-01-2007, 10:41 AM	#447 (permalink)
JohnFlint1985 Patron Join Date: 10-18-07 Location: New York Posts: 242 Country:	Somehow I don't believe that sanctions will do anything with Iran. For them it is an inconvenience - but not a life threatening condition. IN the meantime they will double their efforts to obtain the nukes since in their minds it is the best guarantee that they will be never attacked provided they have it. In fact i think that sanctions will add up to their defiance. Russian card is very complicated in that matter. Iran is a competition for the natural gas export Russia so aggressively pursue in Europe. It is one of very few real trump cards they have. So Moscow sees an opportunity to help Iran while helping themselves. Russia don't want any additional pipe lines to be constructed to the west of Caspian sea. It also is trying to stall American sponsored project to construct another pipeline from Turkmenistan across the Caspian and into Turkey. Iran and Turkmenistan are seen as a serious competition on the European market. So Russia will never join the sanctions. By retaining good relations with Iran Russia believes it will be able to thwart any potential expansion of Iran natural gas to the west. Also there is another player in Iran problem - India. India wants to have a pipe line constructed with natural gas from Iran to India. This is a very politically big issue since China sees it as a direct threat to their almost exclusive relation with Tehran. So in my mind two things can happen. 1 India - China rivalry for natural resources and not in some distant future but now. 2 India may sharply oppose any sanctions against Iran if the pipe line deal will come through. Also it may bring a cool down on the US-India relations. In all Iran problem is tied to other three and in my mind will continue getting bigger and complicated with time. So some sort of resolution to it is in our interests as soon as possible. __________________ "We Shall Never Surrender" Winston Churchill

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10-29-2007, 12:04 PM	#437 (permalink)
Julie Moderator Join Date: 08-04-03 Location: Georgia, USA Posts: 6,340 Country:	I read somewhere a couple of weeks ago that the Shah has cancer and is dying, does anyone know if this is true?

10-29-2007, 12:37 PM	#438 (permalink)
zraver Contrary by nature. *Military Professional* Join Date: 10-22-06 Location: Arkansas Posts: 2,534 Country:	He died years ago, 27 July, 1980.

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