Bluesman

Folks, this has been an OUTSTANDING discussion, and shows a great awareness of the technical details involved, as well as the urgency of the matter.

Congratulations to all on what has turned into a showcase thread, and a credit to the WAB.

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"The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it, and if one finds the prospect of a long war intolerable, it is natural to disbelieve in the possibility of victory."
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Julie

Which would prompt other countries to act, not just the US. What I'm getting at is Iran has already threatened to jeopardize the shipping lane in some form if aggravated in any way by the US. If Iran does, would that act be grounds for attack, not only by the US but other nations as a whole? I mean it would be an act that would endanger the entire world wide economy, would it not?

zraver

What exactly are they going to do? At least in time to save thier economies. Sure the French, Brits, Indians and a few others might send some carriers or marines to help clear the strait but can they get there and ge them open before the last in transit Super tanker reaches its port of call and the tap shuts off?

Iran knows that if the US comes at it full tilt the game is over anyways so why not go for broke and do as much economic damage as possibly. What exactly do they have to lose?

HistoricalDavid

I hear this idea of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip. Didn't they try to do that in 1988, hit a Perry-class frigate and got subsequently beaten up by the US Navy in Operation Praying Mantis?

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Julie

I'm searching for grounds to go to war. Such as this:


Rockets fired at a U.S. base southeast of Baghdad were manufactured in Iran, showing again that country’s continued logistical support for insurgents inside Iraq, U.S. military officials said on Saturday.

Nobody was injured in the October 23rd attack on Combat Outpost Cashe, but one U.S. vehicle was damaged, officials said.

According to the military, the 107mm rocket was made in Iran sometime in March. Troops investigating the launch site seized six rocket rails – used to aim and launch the rockets, an unfired rocket and a timing device.

The seized rocket is the 40th Iranian manufactured rocket that soldiers have captured in the last four months, the military said.

FOXNews.com - U.S. Military: Iranian-Made Rockets Hit Base Near Baghdad - International News | News of the World | Middle East News | Europe News

Is Iran doing this to bait the US in an attempt to get the US to make a "first strike" premise?

Parihaka

Iran steps up preparations for US war

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FullTank

How about a precision missile just to take out Ahmedinejad? Can avoid a lot of trouble for the Iranians and for US.

After all its only he who is shouting out about wiping out isreal stuff etc..

Why put all the Iranians through this?


The next guy who follows the same principle of Ahmedinejad..take him out..and the next and the next..Pretty soon the mullahs will realize that its very difficult to run a country while in hiding and especially when the people themselves havent seen the mullah!

Parihaka

JAD_333

It may seem like a small quibble, but operational details do not drive overall policy. Perhaps you mean they drive the timing and execution of the military response called for by the policy. US policy is embodied in three, sometimes four, what are called "vital interests". Our military is developed and continually assessed in light of our ability to protect these vital interests. I would agree with you to the extent that our military contingency plans are always designed around our military capability as well as other factors. But the civilian component, that is, the policy is an extention of our vital interests. It's like mountain climbing: we first decide we want to get to the top of the mountain; then we plan how to do it.[/quote]

In which case I would have agreed with you wholeheartedly. There is way too much half-thought-out crap on the airwaves about this and a whole range of security issue. It's no wonder the American public is confused.


We used to test Soviet responses all the time using that technique and they did the same to us. We used to intercept their Bears coming up on our 200- mile limit fairly often. I doubt Iran would begin to freak unless the bombers passed Gibralter. They're probably already nervous with our air ops next door in Iraq.

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Feanor

So realistically, on a purely military level, Iran has no means for stopping a U.S. air war from occuring?

Julie

Not that I can tell, but they can be a real pain in the ass in other areas. Well, like they have been already, so what's the difference, except maybe it would effect many other countries economically.

JAD_333

If one were launched right now, without any warning whatsoever, no.

But Iran has deterrence:

1) it can create havoc on shipping in the region. (Ships in the Straits of Hormuz and in the Gulf wouldn't be warned lest their sudden disappearance alert the Iranians that an attack was imminent.);

2) it can attack countries in the region friendly to the US;

3) by default, world oil markets will be disrupted;

4) it can launch an attack on Israel via its surrogate, Hezbolla;

5) it can call on Iraqi Shia groups it backs to step up attacks in Iraq;

6) it can use chemical weapons (in the extreme);

7) it can appeal to people in other Muslim countries in the region to attack US assets in those countries;

8) it can call for UN condemnation of US and a resolution calling for immediate cessation of military activity against Iran. (US, France and UK veto; China, Russia abstain; rotating member ?)

others???

Feanor

So realistically a air war over Iran is not an option due to massive problems in other areas? What about an alpha team entering Iran and taking out their leader, then CIA-backed coup and voila: a new Shah?

zraver

other than deterrance no. To add to Jad's list is one that holds a great deal of promise for them.

Cut the Basra road. The iraqi national guard and Coalition force sin the region are no match for the Shia if they rise up en masse. Ina scenrio where USAF tac air was tied up ove rthe gulf defending the shipping while the navy tookthe fight to Iran becuase of basign issues the mahdi's and Quds force could gain control and cause serious problems. This is more than an increased level of attacks but an attmept to create a sitationwhee a starving US Army is either forced to retreat North or West in defeat, or potentionally taken captive or dealth a severe blow. Luckily for us the Shia seem to be tiring of the Mahdi's and this lessons the threat of such a cordinated campaign.

VarSity

Now thats very interesting.


I really hope thats not on the cards.

CIA backed coup = bad idea in my opinion.