zraver

Most of the public domain pundits couldn't find thier jackass with both hands and a GPS unit. There is no way to just hit Iran's nuclear facilties becuase the real threat is Iran's ability to impose an oil blockade. Any military action has to defeat this capability first, and they have 2 weeks to do it from the time the first shot is fired, after that there are no more tankers in transit from the ME oil feilds.

A lot of the so called experts who have taken a hawkish position think (or mislead people into thinking they do) that a surgical strike or two can defeat Iran. The truth is taking down Iran will be the hardest thing we have done since the end of active hostilities in Korea. Iran knows exactly how and what they need to do in order to strike back at the West in order to exact some equality of punishment if the West decides they must die. There is a reason Iran does not buy almost modern Russian fighters or Soviet era destroyers, but instead wants Chinese mines and anti-ship missiles and North Korean semi-submersible stealth FAC's.

astralis

parihaka,

minor quibble here: east asia, including the metropolises in SK, japan, and china, are far more critical to the world economy.

oil is important, but relatively less so than before. the middle east as an oil source, too, is less important than before as people have diversified out of them. case in point, in the last decade the world economy grew at the fastest rate in all of recorded history despite massive increases in the price of oil.

__________________
Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present.

-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

Parihaka

I've never been sure how America keeps the straits open without having some sort of buffer zone on Iran's coastline which in my mind would mean feet on the ground. Is the air scenario premised on Iran folding quickly and agreeing to terms?

__________________
In the realm of spirit, seek clarity; in the material world, seek utility.
Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz

Parihaka

Agreed, but NK having a nuke doesn't greatly increase the threat the region faces already. If it all went ballistic there the world economy would indeed collapse, but NK having a nuke doesn't greatly increase the chances of that happening. It's just another pawn in an already stacked chessboard. The Korean peninsula is that ideal situation, the Mexican standoff, where nobody dare move.

Iran having a nuke however could easily tip power balances any number of ways, most of which would cause chaos. As Jad said, Israel anyone? Do you think they think A'Jad is just a figurehead court jester?

zraver

No,

Iran only has about 100 truly capably long range anti-shipping missiles that can reach the shipping lanes http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middl...ormuz_2004.jpg

This is why Abu Musa and its sisters are important without them Iran's effective missile inventory is reduced by 90%. The 3 off shore platforms used by the IIRG provide the mid course correction, if they are removed Iran loses its ability to actively track targets with its best crews.

If we can reduce the missile threat we still have to deal with 1000 boghammers, 55 FACs, a very credible 1-2 mission airforce, 3 Kilo submarines plus 10 smaller vessels, and the worlds 4th largest sea mine capacity. We can do it, but we need a minimum of 3 carriers (prefer 4) in the region plus thier amphib compliments, the Ohio and most of the B-2 and F-22 fleets. the USAF assets in the region can't be used offensively inside Iran so says the GCC, unless of course Iran follows through and attacks them.

In our favor vs this horde is that Iran can only target inbound (empty) tankers unless she wants to commit environmental suicide by dumping a few million barrels of oil along its coast. I don't really have a way to sim this out but the margin of victory or defeat is timing.

Iran will know if we forward deploy B-2's from Missouri, but we might be able to sneak 3 carriers into the region. The trick is can we get the B-2's from Missouri to Iran for thier first mission undetected? We have to assume that Iran has a robust humint capability in the area watching/listening to the run ways and counting planes.

The US strike if it happens, and if it achieves tactical and strategic surprise has about 2-8 hours to cripple the bulk of Iran's capabilities, then 2 weeks to defeat the rest of it.

JAD_333

Now we're getting into details that I've been purposely avoiding, except for generalities. I agree with your sequence of how an attack on Iran would proceed, in part because you are more or less in snyc with several of the experts I referred to and which you rudely dismissed. I don't know about the
invulnerability of their nuclear facilities, and doubt you do either. The experts in question also anticipate attacks on hardened nuclear facilities, except those in heavily-populated areas.

Of course, there's nothing wrong with getting into operational details. I find them extremely interesting. I simply prefer to focus on the policy aspects at this point in time: The raison d'etre, if you will, and the overall objective, end-game, etc. In my experience, operational details tend to take on a life of their own, while the reasons behind them become overly static and resistent to revision.

__________________
To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education. (Plato)

JAD_333

So, do we do one of our famous test runs and launch a bunch of B-52 and B-1s and head east, all the while watching what the Iranians do in terms of preparedness, and then turn back before they hit the Med? Would that allow us to measure their responsiveness?

Feanor

They are in possession of a large number of Russian fighter jets. They've also been ramping up their AA, and there has been an alleged purchase of 5 Foxhounds.

EDIT: Is it just me or did Iran start a large number of indigenous weapons programs in the early 90's? A whole bunch of them were ''completed'' in '97.

Iran Weapons

Julie

China, Russia and North Korea have combined to supply Iran’s missiles. Iran’s 1,300 kilometer Shahab-3 missile is essentially an imported North Korean Nodong missile enhanced by Russian technology. It was distributed to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in June 2003 and has since been tested several times. And it is widely assumed that if Iran fields a Shahab-4 missile, it will be a copy of Russia’s SS-4 missile. Both the Nodong and the SS-4 can carry a nuclear warhead.

In January 2007, Russian defense minister Sergei Ivanov confirmed that Russia had delivered Tor-M1 air defense missile systems to Iran. Iran has already tested the missiles and will use them to defend key nuclear sites. North Korea, in addition to selling the Nodong missile, has furnished Iran a fleet of SCUD-B and SCUD-C short-range missiles, plus the factories to make them. Both the SCUD-B and SCUD-C have a diameter sufficient to accommodate a compact nuclear warhead.

From China, Iran has imported the 150 kilometer CSS-8 ballistic missile and a series of land-, sea-, and air-launched short-range cruise missiles. Many of these latter are anti-ship weapons.

In addition, Grigory Omelchenko, a member of Ukraine’s parliament, revealed in early February 2005 that a former officer in Ukraine’s secret police sold six unarmed Soviet-era cruise missiles to Iran between 1999 and 2001. The nuclear-capable missile, known as the KH-55 or the AS-15, has a range of up to 3,000 km and travels near the ground in order to avoid air defenses.

Iran Watch: Status Report

Feanor

The Tor M1 is a tactical SAM. In addition to the Tor M1, Iran has acquired between 10 and 50 of the newest Pantsyr AA complexes (SAM/SPAAG hybrids), and 2 Pechora 2A complexes.

Russia: Moscow Confirms Missile-Systems Deal With Iran
Israel News: Report: Syria to transfer Russian air defense system to Iran

Julie

As to the oil tanker issue, Iran knows that if you sink one tanker in the Strait of Hormuz you can stop all shipping there, because the waters are quite shallow.

Iran said it had successfully fired a high-speed underwater missile capable of destroying huge warships and submarines. The Iranian-made missile has a speed of 223 miles per hour underwater, and they called it the fastest underwater missile in the world, but it has the same speed as the Russian-made VA-111 Shkval, developed in 1995 and believed to be the world's fastest, three or four times faster than a torpedo.

Iran also test-fired the Fajr-3 missile, which can avoid radars and hit several targets simultaneously using multiple warheads. The Guards said the test was successful.

[edit] Have you watched Iran's air defense on youtube? YouTube - Iranian Air Defence Systems

Parihaka

False.
They'd need to sink three end to end just to block one of the two official channels. there is of course a third channel (each 1 mile wide) as a buffer zone between them. You will also note the transit channels aren't even in the deepest part, simply the easiest to navigate. In reality they'd need to sink more than 20 end to end and probably have to stack them on top of each other in the deeper parts to truly block the channel.

Julie

Totally blocking the Strait would exhaust Iran's resources and would likely only be a last resort, anyway. But, Iran doesn't have to completely block the Strait to cause trouble. It could also seriously disrupt shipping by using nonmilitary boats to lay mines in the Strait, which is 34 miles wide at its narrowest point. (you were correct by the way. )

A civilian vessel laying mines, for a long time, can be done quite cheaply. This could end up boosting insurance rates and oil prices.

Feanor

Julie, the video was an ad of a Soviet-style AA screen working. This is the kind of air defense you would expect the Russian Army to have. The Iranians WISH they had S-300PMU-2, Kub M-1, Tunguskas, Osa AKM, and all the associated command structures to project that kind of defense screen over their country. In reality the Iranians have a few outdated S-200s, a couple of dozen of old Kub -M, 29 Tor M1s, and probably 10 Pantsyr-1. They do not have the variety, density (numbers), or associated command and control structures to do what the video showed.

zraver

Operational details determine the policy, you cannot threaten what you cannot do.

Most of the 'experts" I have seen have been busy blowing smoke up the publics ass. So I am touchy with the subject, I should have specified TV experts.

The problem is of course what if Iran panics and fires? And now we are back to the problem or rational actions ours and thiers). Realistically we would ahve to surge the B-2's

Feanor,

No really, fighter wise they have some Mig 29 series 9 and 10 with the outmoded Topaz radar. their best fighters are the US F-4 and F-14. Iran also has some SAu-25 and SU-24 fighter bombers that give it a credible 1-2 mission strike capability but overall thier air force is last in line for funding.

Iran is not getting Foxhounds, the report had them offered to Syria by Russia as a Foxbat upgrade, IIRC the timing of the report co-incided with Syrian-Israeli tensions and was more of a political statement.

more spread out time wise but Iran now makes

F-5 clone and 2 F-5 upgrades (Super F-5s), AH-1 Cobra and UH-1 clones, Zulfgir 1-3 tanks (m48/m60 upgrade) Zulfgir 4 tank (M60/T-72mix), F-14 parts, Hawk Missiles, short and medium range anti-ship missiles, Chinese C802 large anti-ship missiles. SRBM and IRBM missiles, rocket torpedoes, SP AAA gun system, FACs, UAV's, and light space launch capability.

They are working on an AWACS, smart munitions, MIRV technology (despite claims no MIRV ability has been seen and thier claims were were probably mistranslated and referred to a MLRS type system that had the same Fajr-3 name)

ADA/AAA

Iran may have up to 98 (high end estimate) launchers of the S-300 SAM. This is based on comparing what Iran supposedly paid vs what Cyprus paid, and the fact that Cyrpus got theirs via battery (before Turkey flipped out) and the individual S-300 launcher is useless without the rest of the complex. The problem is ther eis alot of people looking for proof, but none has surfaced so everythign with the S-300 is a big "IF".

Iran also has 29 Tor M1 systems (batteries) this has been confirmed.

It is unlikely Iran has or wants the Pantsir for deployment, the 10 they are supposedly getting from Syria are probably slated for reverse engineering.

Iran's high end Russian self defense systems are most likely clustered around the nuclear facilities and critical C4SRI assets deep in the interior, although we need to be aware of Iran attempting to use the S-300 near the coast in an bush role vs AWACs.

The overwhelming bulk of Iran's SAM and Radar nets are older US, and western systems like the Hawk, and Soviet era (including Chinese) systems like the SA-2 and SA-5 (S-200)

More like 1-2 per channel to create a navigation hazard and forcing shipping to slow down and forcing insurance rates and crude prices up to the point where world wide economic vitality is endangered.