Iran Is Next - Page 2

gunnut · 04-04-2007, 23:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pragnosis

What do you mean by this Shek? I'm a bit puzzled, please elaborate.

Also, I am shocked at the president's (A'Jad) decision to release the crew. It's possible that my theories are non-sense, we'll just have to see if the bush administration make up another excuse to demonise Iran. I think Iran's nuclear program is likely to be innocent as there is no evidence to the contrary.

And who would know this? Who has actually seen what the Iranians are doing? Did the UN send inspectors in there to take a look? I mean if they have nothing to hide like they said, they wouldn't mind a well respected and much deserved international organization like the UN to take a tour.

What if the UN inspectors are allowed to see everything peaceful, but there are some sites off limits, what then? What conclusion will you draw from that? Please elaborate.

xerxes · 04-05-2007, 00:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gunnut

What if the UN inspectors are allowed to see everything peaceful, but there are some sites off limits, what then? What conclusion will you draw from that? Please elaborate.

Allow me to elaborate in his place, if I may, .... We can conclude something like the Dimona nuclear site

Garry · 04-05-2007, 06:19 AM

Just to remind what Xerxs was pointing at
Dimona - Introduction

Quote:

Dimona
Negev Nuclear Research Center
Kirya le-Mechkar Garinii (KAMAG)
The Dimona heavy water reactor and an installation for processing irradiated fuel are used to produce weapons-grade nuclear material. Approximately 2,700 scientists, technicians, administrative staff, and other workers are employed at Dimona. Since the facility was constructed in the late 1950's the surrounding land has been altered to sustain groves of palms and gardens positioned to obscure the facility from the road and air.

Begining around 1958 with French assistance, Israel constructed a natural uranium, heavy-water, research reactor at Dimona in the Negev Desert, about 8.5 miles from the town of the same name and some 25 miles from the Jordanian border. The Dimona facility was constructed in secret and is not under international inspection safeguards. The facility was first noticed by American intelligence when U-2 spyplanes overflew Dimona in 1958. It was not conclusively identified as a nuclear site until two years later. This reactor, nominally rated at 26 megawatts thermal, was put on line in early 1964. However according to Pierre Pean, French officials were surprised to discover that the cooling circuits designed to support three times the nominal power level, which permitted a scale-up to 70MWt without the addition of extra cooling circuits. If true, the power level of the reactor was reportedly 70MWt from the outset. Perhaps the power level has been increased to 150MWt some time after 1976, according to Barnaby.

An installation for processing irradiated fuel was completed with French assistance in the mid-1960s. Between 15 and 40-60 kilograms of fissionable plutonium can be processed annually. This facility probably has the capacity to produce plutonium for five to ten nuclear warheads a year.

In 1986, descriptions and photographs provided by the Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu were published in the London Sunday Times of the Dimona facility. This information supported the conclusion that Israel had a stockpile of 100 to 200 nuclear devices, a significantly larger nuclear capability than previously estimated.

Dimona consists of nine of these blocks called machons (in Hebrew facility or institute).

Machon 1 - The large silver-domed reactor containment vessel, nearly 20 meters [about 60 feet] in diameter, is visible from a nearby highway. Uranium fuel rods remain in the reactor for a few months before being discharged for reprocessing. The heavy water used as a moderator is cooled by ordinary water through a heat exchanger, which reportedly results in steam sometimes visible from the outside. Reports of annual production of as much as 60-kg of plutonium suggest that the reactor power level has been upgraded to 120-150 megawatts, much higher than the original power of 26 megawatts. Tritium can be produced by irradiating lithium-6 targets in the reactor. The reactor is four decades old, and may be reaching the end of its practical lifetime.
Machon 2 - Of the 2,700 employees at Dimona, it is said that only 150 are permitted access to Machon 2, which reportedly extends six floors underground. The chemical reprocessing plant removes plutonium produced in the reactor from the spent uranium rods. Before reprocessing begins, the rods are stored in water filled tanks for several weeks while the short-halflife radio-isotopes decay. The residual uranium is reprocessed to be used in new fuel rods. The facility also separates lithium-6 from natural lithium for use in thermonuclear weapons. According to Vanunu, the average weekly production is 1.2 kilograms of pure plutonium, enough for 4-12 nuclear weapons per year.
Machon 3 - The facility includes processing of natural uranium for the reactor, and conversion of lithium 6 into a solid for use in thermo-nuclear warheads.
Machon 4 - This facility is dedicated to the treatment of radioactive waste products. It includes a waste treatment plant and high-level waste storage. Low-level waste is mixed with tar, taken out in cans and buried nearby.
Machon 5 - Uranium from Machon 3 is made into rods coated in aluminum to be sent to the reactor.
Machon 6 - Supply of services to other Machons, including electricity, steam and specialized chemicals (nitrogen etc). It also hosts emergency electrical generators.
Machon 7 - Unknown - may no longer exist.
Machon 8 - Large laboratory for testing purity of samples from Machon 2, experiments on new processes. A secret unit (Unit 840) has been making enriched uranium since 1979-80 on a production scale. This may consist of a gas centifuge faclity for the production of enriched uranium.
Machon 9 - A laser isotope separation facility can be used to enrich uranium and to increase the proportion of isotope plutonium-239 in plutonium.
Machon 10 - Depleted uranium made into tips of shells for Israeli use and for export to Switzerland.
Israel may have developed a nuclear weapons capability incorporating enriched uranium. Up to 100 kilograms of enriched uranium missing from a facility at Apollo, Pennsylvania, are believed to have been taken to Israel, although other reports suggest that much of the material was recovered from the floors and ventilation ducts of the plant when it was decommissioned. In 1968, 200 tons of uranium ore disappeared from a ship in the Mediterranean Sea and probably diverted to Israel.

Plutonium production reactors which are both cooled and moderated by heavy water [like the Israeli reactor at Dimona] require about 0.75 tons of heavy water per thermal megawatt, and lose about 0.5 % of this heavy water each year.

"Dimona needed about 18t of heavy water to start operation.... France very likely agreed to supply Dimona's heavy water along with the reactor.... From 1959 to 1963 Israel imported 20t from Norway and 3.9t from the United States. This would supply Dimona indefinitely if the reactor stayed at its rated power of 24 megawatts.... For the reactor to produce the 40 kilograms of plutonium per year described by Vanunu, it would have had to be scaled up to more than 100 megawatts.... If the amount of coolant were quadrupled, which could allow quadrupled power, Dimona would need about 36t of heavy water — 12t of moderator and 24t of coolant. The 36t is slightly less than the total that Israel could have received from Norway, the United States, and France." HEAVY WATER CHEATERS by Gary Milhollin Foreign Policy Winter 1987-1988, p. 100-119.

And this some information about Mordechai Vanunu, who spent 18 years in prison for giving out that information. Even today he is not allowed to leave Israel nor speak to foreigners.... ISRAEL DOES VIOLATE IAEA requirements..... ISRAEL REFUSED TO SIGN NON PROLIFIRATION TREATY...

Quote:

LONDON (AFP) - Mordechai Vanunu, who was freed in April after 18 years in an Israeli prison for revealing the country's nuclear program, told the BBC in a television interview from Israel that he was desperate to start a new life elsewhere.

"I want to feel free, I'm not free here," said the 50-year-old Vanunu, who on release was subjected to a series of sweeping restrictions, including a ban on travelling abroad as well as holding unauthorised meetings with foreigners.

"The only way to feel and enjoy freedom and start my new life as a free human being will be when I can leave Israel and live my life in the US, in Europe or in London," he said.

Vanunu was sentenced in 1986 to 18 years in prison for "treason" and "espionage" after leaking top-secret details about the Dimona nuclear plant, where he was employed, to The Sunday Times.

"I tried to inform the world and to try to stop this nuclear proliferation," he said on Sunday in the live television interview with BBC's Breakfast with (David) Frost programme.

**Shek** · 04-05-2007, 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garry

Just to remind what Xerxs was pointing at
Dimona - Introduction

And this some information about Mordechai Vanunu, who spent 18 years in prison for giving out that information. Even today he is not allowed to leave Israel nor speak to foreigners.... ISRAEL DOES VIOLATE IAEA requirements..... ISRAEL REFUSED TO SIGN NON PROLIFIRATION TREATY...

If someone didn't sign up for the NPT, then you can't hold them accountable to the NPT standards.

The fact is that Iran DID SIGN UP for the NPT, and so they either need to abide by the standards or pull out of the treaty, openly signaling their intentions.

Next, how many people have been openly threatened by Israeli nukes, and how many people believe that Israel has a first strike doctrine? Does anybody believe the same of Iran if they were to get nukes?

BTW, if Vanunu isn't allowed to speak to foreigners, how was he able to conduct an interview with the Beeb?

**Parihaka** · 04-05-2007, 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garry

Just to remind what Xerxs was pointing at
Dimona - Introduction

And this some information about Mordechai Vanunu, who spent 18 years in prison for giving out that information. Even today he is not allowed to leave Israel nor speak to foreigners.... ISRAEL DOES VIOLATE IAEA requirements..... ISRAEL REFUSED TO SIGN NON PROLIFIRATION TREATY...

Those rascally French, they'd sell anything to anybody

xerxes · 04-05-2007, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shek

If someone didn't sign up for the NPT, then you can't hold them accountable to the NPT standards.

The fact is that Iran DID SIGN UP for the NPT, and so they either need to abide by the standards or pull out of the treaty, openly signaling their intentions.

Next, how many people have been openly threatened by Israeli nukes, and how many people believe that Israel has a first strike doctrine? Does anybody believe the same of Iran if they were to get nukes?

BTW, if Vanunu isn't allowed to speak to foreigners, how was he able to conduct an interview with the Beeb?

The whole NPT is a mere technicallity Major Shek. The fact that there is NOT a major crackdown on Israeli nukes would be due to its geopolitical alignment in reference to the world superpower. Even you take A-jad and all his rhetorics off the equation, a nuclear Islamic Republic that geopolitically is aligned against the United States, is unacceptable. The whole issue of A-jad's rhetorics just sells is better the public view. A nuclear Islamic Republic was unacceptable before even A-jad became the mayor of Tehran let alone the President.

This whole NPT issue and A-jad rhetrics just sells it better, no more no less. Or are you telling me that had Iran (Islamic Republic) did not signed up for the NPT and was there no A-jad and any of his rhetorics, the US government would have accepted a nuclear Islamic Republic?

I think Not.

Also you mentioned Iran is a provocator, as proven by this recent past events (15 Brits), I tend to agree with you. However, because I am fair, I also tend to agree that US invasion of a soverign power named Iraq, was also a major massive provocation that largely dwarf that of Iran capturing 15 Brits. However, that provocation (US-2003) is legitimized because of the world power statues of the United States, therefore people take it for granted, whereas they notice the small provocative moves of Iran (15 Brits) and North Korea (detonating a nuke).

StanlyS · 04-05-2007, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pragnosis

Quote:
I think Iran's nuclear program is likely to be innocent as there is no evidence to the contrary.

Many would not be convinced Iran is working on developing nuclear weapons until AFTER it conducted a live nuclear test open for the world to examen. Course then it would be to late.

Please may I suggest for you skeptics out there it may be time for you to do some late reading, study, on the track record to date concerning Iran's nuclear intentions of not just how they are developing nuclear ambitions but more importantly why.

Amazon.com: Iran: The Coming Crisis: Radical Islam, Oil, and the NucleAmazon.com: Showdown with

Amazon.com: Showdown with Nuclear Iran: Radical Islam's Messianic Mission to Destroy Israel and Cripple the United States: Bo..

Amazon.com: Confronting Iran: The Failure of American Foreign Policy And the Next Great Crisis in the Middle East: Books: Ali..

Amazon.com: Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran: Books: Kenneth R. Timmerman

With the above reading could I suggest the reader also see American Grand Strategy After 9/11: An Assessment By Stephen D. Biddle. Most of his works are available on this site with a summary of his publications available as free downloads.

Simply stated Iran or no other country has any modern day reason to be going thru all the unnecessary, labor, expensive research and refinement required to produce simple uranium rods for their still not operable nuclear powers plants when it is freely available on the open market. Instead it is doing all this so the rest of the world does not know for sure its intent to gain nuclear weapons ordinarily it would have no use for except in tactical offensive warfare. Certainly not as a defensive measure.

Stay informed, read from many different sources. Thank you Shek, Ray.

**Shek** · 04-05-2007, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xerxes

The whole NPT is a mere technicallity Major Shek. The fact that there is NOT a major crackdown on Israeli nukes would be due to its geopolitical alignment in reference to the world superpower. Even you take A-jad and all his rhetorics off the equation, a nuclear Islamic Republic that geopolitically is aligned against the United States, is unacceptable. The whole issue of A-jad's rhetorics just sells is better the public view. A nuclear Islamic Republic was unacceptable before even A-jad became the mayor of Tehran let alone the President.

This whole NPT issue and A-jad rhetrics just sells it better, no more no less. Or are you telling me that had Iran (Islamic Republic) did not signed up for the NPT and was there no A-jad and any of his rhetorics, the US government would have accepted a nuclear Islamic Republic?

I think Not.

Also you mentioned Iran is a provocator, as proven by this recent past events (15 Brits), I tend to agree with you. However, because I am fair, I also tend to agree that US invasion of a soverign power named Iraq, was also a major massive provocation that largely dwarf that of Iran capturing 15 Brits. However, that provocation (US-2003) is legitimized because of the world power statues of the United States, therefore people take it for granted, whereas they notice the small provocative moves of Iran (15 Brits) and North Korea (detonating a nuke).

Xerxes,

I would agree that Iran has reasons to be concerned about US actions and the fact that the US is on both sides of Iran. The rhetoric from the Bush Administration was not helpful. However, I see the nuclear gambit as a means to perpetuate the regime and solidify domestic support by focusing outward, especially in light of the domestic failure of Ajad to fufill his campaign pledges of improving the economy. It is a brinksmanship game where the most likely outcome is the one that is mutually unbeneficial.

Next, I agree with the fact that a nuclear armed, theocratic Iran is destabilizing. I think that a democratic Iran (one that is not under the control or influence of the clerics) would be destabilizing, although in a manner where the effects could be lessened and/or contained.

However, in the end, Iran is part of the NPT, and therefore have pledged to be transparent. This is not happening.

gunnut · 04-05-2007, 15:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xerxes

Allow me to elaborate in his place, if I may, .... We can conclude something like the Dimona nuclear site

It's pretty much an open secret that Israel has nuclear weapons. But they have not threatened anyone. They fought many wars against their neighbors, some were even pre-emptive strikes. They never employed their nukes.

Iran is an islamic republic. I've said many times that muslims don't have a good track record as far as attacking others are concerned. Add nukes and A-jad to the equation and you get a nervous US.

Muslims need a reform. They need to toss out some of their mullahs and some ancient traditions and embrace the secular 21st century.

Not all muslims are terrorists. Most are ordinary people who just want to be left alone. But that few percent extremists make this world a very interesting place.

StanlyS · 04-05-2007, 17:00 PM

Quote
I think Iran's nuclear program is likely to be innocent as there is no evidence to the contrary.

Repeating what a Maine hick farmer says, "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck then investigate it as a duck!"

WMD are the very last thing any non Islamic country wants the neo-nazijahards to get mitts on. Ample proof exists Iran is developing these weapons. It is in print everywhere. Should you need further study on this topic or lots of other similar topics with this war try this site >>>>> MiPAL: Terrorism or the books I listed above.

I'd rather state more likely you made the quote above just to get a rise out of the responses.

I might highly suggest reading publications written by Stephen D. Biddle American Grand Strategy After 9/11: An Assessment This is much more then a grand eye-opener.

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04-05-2007, 17:00 PM	#25 (permalink)
StanlyS Regular Join Date: 02-25-07 Posts: 25	Quote I think Iran's nuclear program is likely to be innocent as there is no evidence to the contrary. Repeating what a Maine hick farmer says, "If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck then investigate it as a duck!" WMD are the very last thing any non Islamic country wants the neo-nazijahards to get mitts on. Ample proof exists Iran is developing these weapons. It is in print everywhere. Should you need further study on this topic or lots of other similar topics with this war try this site >>>>> MiPAL: Terrorism or the books I listed above. I'd rather state more likely you made the quote above just to get a rise out of the responses. I might highly suggest reading publications written by Stephen D. Biddle American Grand Strategy After 9/11: An Assessment This is much more then a grand eye-opener.

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