Commando

The Four Day war
September 13, 2004 issue
Copyright © 2004 The American Conservative


By Claude Salhani

A number of analysts believe that Iran will reach a critical stage in its pursuit of nuclear capability sometime within the next few months. This is a terrifying new development, far more worrisome than the wars and uprisings that have plagued the Middle East to date.

Indeed, as Ray Takeyh, director of studies at the Near East and South Asia Center at the National Defense University, said at a recent Washington conference, Iran may have already passed the point of “political no return” in its bid for nuclear competence. If the Islamic republic has already passed that political landmark, then the actual point of no return cannot be far away.

Iran’s urge to join the elite “nuclear club” has been encouraged by a number of patrons who would like to see a second Islamic nation, after Pakistan, develop a nuclear weapon to counter Israel’s atomic arsenal. Takeyh believes that if Iran has not crossed the threshold, it is “awfully close.”

Stressing the Islamic republic’s objective, last June Iran’s Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi asked that his nation be recognized as a member of the nuclear club. “This is an irreversible path,” Kharrazi stated. He went on to reveal that his country is now able to operate the full nuclear fuel cycle. Then, in a tentative reassurance to the West, added that Iran is “not now enriching uranium.” Not yet—but intelligence analysts believe it will soon begin processing this vital nuclear component.

Iran has long wanted to be recognized as a regional superpower, a desire that began under the shah, if not earlier, possibly as far back as 580 B.C. with Cyrus the Great. The country’s mutation from an imperial dynasty to an Islamic theocracy did little to alter Iran’s visions of regional grandeur. From their perspective, Iranians feel they have good reason to want nuclear deterrence.

First, the United States’ invasion of Iraq served as a reminder to autocracies around the world of their need to be strong enough to deter potential U.S. intervention. If nothing else, Iraq’s invasion served as the poster child for nuclear deterrence against unilateral military action from the world’s remaining superpower. Repeated threats of regime change by the Bush administration have only increased Iran’s fears that they could be next in line. President George W. Bush’s campaign promise about “finishing the job,” if re-elected in November, is a slogan that must keep more than one ayatollah awake at night—and pushing for nuclear deterrence.

Immediately following the 1991 Gulf War, India’s then chief of staff was asked privately what strategic lessons should be drawn from the rapid and overwhelming U.S. victory over Iraq. “Make sure you have your own atomic bomb before you challenge the United States,” he replied.

Second, Iran cannot predict how a highly unstable Iraq—a longtime foe—will turn out once this initial post-Saddam chaotic phase passes. And third, some members of Tehran’s ruling theocracy believe that if Israel is permitted nuclear weapons, why not Iran? Being lumped into the “Axis of Evil” has helped justify a level of paranoia.

While the United States is keeping an eye on Iran’s nuclear progress, there is another country watching even more closely. Israel, feeling the most threatened by Iran’s march towards nuclear competency, is reportedly preparing a repeat of its 1981 raid on Iraq’s nuclear facility at Osirak. With about 140,000 American troops in neighboring Iraq, chances that the U.S. will intervene militarily are slim, making it all the more probable that Israel will feel it has to act unilaterally.

According to a recent report, Israel has built replicas of Iran’s nuclear facilities in the Negev Desert, where their fighter-bombers have been practicing test runs for months. Israel realizes it has a small window of opportunity if it is to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities before they go “hot” and leakage from an attack causes harmful exposure to tens of thousands of civilians caught by radiation forced into the atmosphere by such a raid.

Israel is unlikely to accept Iran’s word that its nuclear program is meant solely for peaceful purposes and aimed at developing commercial energy. The possibility of decisive military action is, indeed, high.

What follows is the unfolding of a worst-case scenario, an imaginary yet all-too-possible depiction of how events might develop if Israel were to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Day One: Wednesday

In a pre-dawn raid, undisclosed numbers of Israeli warplanes, taking off from military airbases in the Negev, destroy Iran’s main nuclear facility at Bushehr. Israel’s armed forces have released no details, but it is believed the planes flew over parts of Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, refueling in mid-air before reaching their target. Military analysts speculate that the planes must have refueled somewhere over Iraq.

During the one-hour raid, Iran claims to have shot down “several” Israeli fighters. Television images show pilots being lynched by furious mobs before Iranian authorities could reach them. The after-effects of the raid shake the Arab and Islamic world. Millions take to the streets demanding immediate action against Israel.

In planning the attack, Israel weighed the threats of Arab and Muslim reaction. The only other nuclear threat, and a possible danger to Israel, is Pakistan. Israel considered striking Pakistan’s nuclear sites, too, but Indian intelligence reports that Pakistan lacks long-distance delivery for its warheads. Bombay is the farthest they can reach. Additional reassurance from American intelligence convinced Israel that as long as Musharraf remains in power, Pakistan does not represent an imminent threat. The decision was made not to hit Pakistan.

Day Two: Thursday

Believing that Israel would never undertake such actions without U.S. approval, or at least a tacit nod from the American administration, Iran retaliates. Thousands of Revolutionary Guards are dispatched across the border into Iraq with orders to inflict as many casualties on American troops as possible. Fierce clashes erupt between coalition forces and Iranians. Within hours, more than 400 U.S. troops are killed, and many more wounded in heavy fighting. Iranian sleeper agents, who have infiltrated Iraq since the downfall of Saddam, urge Iraqi Shi’ites into action. They cut major highways and harass coalition troops, preventing reinforcements from reaching units under attack. Several helicopters are shot down.

Tehran orders the Lebanese Shi’ite movement, Hezbollah, into action against northern Israel. Hezbollah launches scores of rockets and mortars against kibbutzim, towns, and settlements. Israel retaliates. Casualties are high on both sides of the frontier. Tension in the Middle East reaches a boiling point. In Washington, the Cabinet convenes in an emergency session.

Massive demonstrations erupt all over the Arab and Islamic world. Crowds of gigantic proportions take to the streets, ransacking Israeli embassies in Cairo, Amman, and Ankara. American embassies in a number of other cities are burned. With police overwhelmed, the military is called in. Armies open fire, killing hundreds, adding to the outrage.

Day Three: Friday

Following Friday prayers across the Islamic world, crowds incited by fiery sermons in mosques from Casablanca to Karachi take to the streets in the worst protests yet. Government buildings are ransacked, and clashes with security forces result in greater casualties. Martial law is declared, and curfew imposed, but this fails to prevent further mayhem and rioting. Islamist groups call for the overthrow of governments and for immediate military action against Israel.

In Saudi Arabia, Islamist militants engage in open gun battles with security forces in several cities. The whereabouts of the Saudi royal family are unknown. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Egypt, and a dozen other countries, crowds continue to run amok, demanding war on Israel.

Day Four: Saturday

A longstanding plan to overthrow Musharraf is carried out by senior Pakistani army officers loyal to the Islamic fundamentalists and with close ties to bin Laden. The coup is carried out in utmost secrecy.

Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI—a long-time supporter of the fundamentalists—in agreement with the plotters, takes control of the country’s nuclear arsenal and its codes. Within hours, and before news of the coup leaks out, Pakistan, now run by pro-bin Laden fundamentalists, loads two nuclear weapons aboard executive Lear jets that take off from a remote military airfield, headed for Tel Aviv and Ashdod. Detouring and refueling in east Africa, they approach Israel from the south. The crafts identify themselves as South African. Their tail markings match the given identification.

The two planes with their deadly cargo are flown by suicide pilots who, armed with false flight plans and posing as business executives, follow the flight path given to them by Israeli air traffic control. At the last moment, however, the planes veer away from the airfield, soar into the sky and dive into the outskirts of the two cities, detonating their nuclear devices in the process.


The rest of this scenario can unfold in a number of ways. Take your pick; none are encouraging.

Israel retaliates against Pakistan, killing millions in the process. Arab governments fall. Following days of violence, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt succumb to Islamist rebels who vow open warfare with Israel. The Middle East regresses into war, with the fighting claiming hundreds of thousands of lives. A much-weakened Israel, now struggling for its very survival, deploys more nuclear weapons, targeting multiple Arab capitals. The Middle East is in complete mayhem, as the United States desperately tries to arrange a cease-fire.

This was all a bad dream, or rather one writer’s dark vision of what might happen if the current situation is allowed to continue unchecked. What precisely are the chances of any of this coming to pass? The probability of Israel striking Iran is very real. That could happen at any moment. As for the rest, there is really no way to know what will ensue once the demons are unleashed. Events could unfold as described above, or they could develop a bit differently, give or take a nuke or two. Whatever the outcome, it will not be good.

The solution is far from evident. Takeyh, the professor of national security studies, notes that in the past where there have been cases of “nuclear reversal,” such as in South Africa, it has happened due to a change in the region’s strategic environment.

The Middle East hardly falls into that category. Iran is unlikely to give up its nuclear deterrence as long as Israel remains a nuclear power. Israel is unlikely to cede its nuclear capability as long as it feels threatened by the Arab/Islamic world and as long as Pakistan holds on to its bomb. Pakistan, of course, points to India, also a nuclear power. India looks at Pakistan and across the Himalayas and sees nuclear-armed China and says it would never give up its cherished membership to the elite nuclear club.

In his campaign stops, President Bush keeps reiterating that the world is a safer place because of his actions. Yet looking at the state of world affairs it is very difficult to agree with him. The dead-ended Mideast peace talks, Saudi Arabia’s internal turmoil, continuing Islamist terrorist threats, the vulnerability of American troops in Iraq, and the question of Iran’s nukes all contribute to maintaining tensions at an all-time high.

Barring a solid and lasting peace settlement between Israel and its Arab neighbors, the countries of the Middle East are far from nuclear disarmament. If anything, nuclear proliferation is only likely to increase as states like Saudi Arabia find that they, too, need to defend themselves against a nuclear-armed Iran. Recent reports have indicated that Saudi Arabia is looking to lease Pakistan’s nukes. The arms race of the Cold War may be dead, but the race for hot weapons has never been so alive

highsea

I think the author of that piece is on drugs.

Israel attacks Iran and gets nuked by Talibans in Lear Jets?

Lololol...

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Commando

Lol yeh i saw that bit and i go this is loosing credibility lol. but the worrying thing for me that seems accurate is if such an attack occurs the muslim reaction around the world could provoke their governments into some serious stuff. I hope this all gets resolved though. Peacefully


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Deioces

i thought this was a very good read of what could happen. we live in a dangerous and aggressive world. even though we think of these predictions as impossible. any of it could happen in this day and age.

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Khan Sahab

Hmmm Nice Story.....

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Tronic

Where does it say Taliban in Lear Jets?

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Tronic

Quite a story... ofcourse, all that doesn't have to happen, if someone else can do the job....

urmomma158

He didnt specifically mean Taliban LEAR jets in the artcile. He was referring to the LEAR jets as taliban lear jets for some reason.

LOL look at these rdiculous claims in the article

This man knows nothing about Pakistans ballistic missile range capabilities,airline scheduling,ticketing etc and much more. Just some stupid scenarios he's pulling out of his ass and makiing them look good froma galance inthe article with professional article like writing.Whoever wrote this needs to seriously do some research.


Israel:We see a plane on our EW network,lets communicate with them.
Israel: Who are you?
terrorists: We are a south african flight.
Israel:Not on our schedules and according to our EW network they came from Pakistan.Ah w/e just let em through nothing suspicous here especially after we're on hightened alert.

Don't you think Israel would be on hightened alert after striking Iran and keep records of scheduled flights and HOW THE HELL CAN YOU READ AN AIRCRAFTS TAIL NUMBER FROM SO FAR AWAY WHEN THEY'RE IN THE AIR!

Apparently common sense and logic is not present int his article ebcause this author is smoking something exotic.

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military

isreal would win remember what happend in the 6 day war isreal almost destroyed the entire egyptian military and now isreal is even stronger with f-15s, f-16's, m-16s they could make a huge fight. and the best things the iranians have is the f-15 from the 1970's when the sha was in power and the cobra helicopter also givin to the sha. iran cannot launch missles into isreal because the united states has givin isreal laser systems to shoot down incomng scuds. the united states and isreal have been doing military tests incase of a war with iran. and iran can not stand up to them both.

urmomma158

The THEL?? It's a defense against artillery rounds and artillery missiles not as an ATBM system. That's the role of their arrown and Patriot units.

Guardian

I feel that everyone's response to this hypothetical scenario are a little too critical. I agree that the tactics of the article are screwy, but these tactics are not the point of the article. The gist of events is quite accurate. Israel attacks Iran, Iran attacks the US in Iraq with ground forces, Iran attempts to attack Israel from an allied nation (perhaps through Lebanon or Syria), and the Islamic world goes into chaos and bloodlust demanding a war with Israel.

These events are very probable. It also caught my eye that this article is from 2004. Three years have gone by and this story has moved up to the front burner.

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JodiSP

If Israel attacked Iran, the Americans would either know and probability approve of the operation and surely the Iranians know this. Thus the first response of the Iranians would be to cut of the gulf to all shipping, this action would almost certainly bring in the US into the conflict.

Any US ship in the gulf I believe would be in great danger of been damaged or destroyed in such a confined space such as the gulf and the large shore line the Iranians own.

In such an event, especially if the US loses several capital ships it makes me very nervous that the present American govt could revert to weapons of mass destruction

Guardian

I don't think the Iranian military has the aerial or naval capabilities to take out an aircraft carrier. Iran has a strong army, a mediocre airforce, and an even more mediocre navy. US Aircraft carriers are like floating fortresses. They have multiple defensive systems, spectacular offensive capabilities, not to mention the 50 or so fighter jets.

If Iran lifts a finger to Israel, the whole region will be one big battleground: Israel, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Syria, and perhaps Jordan because of its proximity. People may scoff that the US is stunk in the mud and won't be able to help, but I disagree. The sentiments among US miltiary personnel (from what I've witnessed) are favorable for a war with Iran. Iran is a major contributor to the destabilization in Iraq. No progress can be made on any of the Middle Eastern fronts until Iran is neutralized.

uss

Israel attacks Iran -> probable
Iran attacks US in Iraq and simulatneously Israel via Lebanon -> probable, but chances are you'll see a bunch Iranian missiles (shahab?) flying towards critical locations in Israel/Iraq perhaps even with some chemical/bio warheads.
Add to this heavy attacks in the sea on U.S. assets.

If Israel makes this move without U.S. knowledge, it'll be a stupid mistake for sure - it'll give little time for the U.S to make preparations and its forces could be surprised. IOW, more damage. The best thing to do is get American blessings for the adventure before undertaking it and do it without direct U.S. involvement.

Also, if in this time frame, Pak goes unstable, the first place to feel the heat will be india - thats a given - no matter what, India gets nuked first. After that all hell breaks loose. Who knows, seeing American attention diverted, China may jump on Taiwan? Hell, even NoKo might lob a nuke or two @ Japan for the hell of it. Ultimate chaos/confusion - Armageddon.
JMT

USS.

JAD_333

An attack by Israel on Iran's nuclear reactor is unlikely.

More likely is that the UN and major power efforts will succeed in convincing Iran to abandon its enrichment activities.

In any case, the Iranian leadership including the Ayatolla knows that time is running out; it cannot afford sanctions that will cause its economy to regress nor the loss of public support that will result.

It also cannot afford to provide any pretext for an attack; helping insurgents in Iraq is one such pretext that needs closing. The new talks between Iran and the US, although commenced in a hostile atmosphere, may indicate that Iran is ready to play the part of an honest broker with the Shiites in Iraq to bring sectarian hostilites there to a close.

Still, Iran needs a facing saving way out of its nuclear predicament without.
Appearing to surrender would damage its influence. It could do this with a symbolic call on all ME countries to foreswear development of nuclear weapons, although most if not all already have by signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Milk toast.

A better course would be to suspend enrichment activites calling it a gesture to promote peace in the region. Who would believe that? Never mind, every leader will pretend to... Of course, Iran's decision would have to follow concessions by the US related to its ME policy. This is one reason why winning in Iraq, or appearing to be winning, is important for the US. The size of the concessions we give will depend on how strong we appear at the time of a deal.

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