Iran and the Bomb

tarek · 11-07-2004, 00:44 AM

Iran and the bomb
Dr Farrukh Saleem

Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran has what no other country does; 55 million educated citizens plus 133 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. At the current rate of production Iran’s oil reserves would last for another 99 years, and at the current market rate the oil reserves alone are worth a colossal $7 trillion (Iran also has 812 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves).

Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran can be the best of the best. Iranians can be richer than the richest. Iran’s corporate sector can be wealthier than the wealthiest.

Alas, Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran is nowhere near where it ought to be. At least 40 percent of all Iranians are now living below the line of poverty (35 percent of all Pakistanis are under the poverty level). Iran’s Human Development Index (HDI) is at 101; a hundred countries being better off than Iran. According to Transparency International (TI), Iran is one of the most corrupt of the corrupt. In TI’s 2004 Corruption Perceptions Index (10, highly clean and 0, highly corrupt) Iran scored a pathetic 2.9. India at 2.8 was only a notch behind; Pakistan was at 2.1 while Israel scored a high 6.4 with only 25 countries in the world less corrupt than Israel (and 125 more corrupt than Israel).

Where did Iran go wrong? To begin with, ‘Leaders of the Revolution’ mixed up Islam and Socialism. Consider, for instance, Article 44 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran: "The state sector is to include all large-scale and mother industries, foreign trade, major minerals, banking, insurance, power generation, dams and large-scale irrigation networks, radio and television, post, telegraph and telephone services, aviation, shipping, roads, railroads and the like; all these will be publicly owned and administered by the State."

After 25 years of State Ownership, Iran’s banks, insurance companies, aviation, shipping, foreign trade entities and railroads are all on the verge of a major meltdown (subsidies from oil exports being the only savoir). Almost everything — except for small workshops, farming and services — is owned by the State.

State Ownership of resources has distorted every force of demand and supply in each and every aspect of Iranian economy. Seventy million Iranians produce little — other than pistachios and carpets — that Iran can export to the rest of the world. As a consequence, Iran’s latest trade deficit amounted to a colossal $20.6 billion (excluding oil and gas exports).

Then there are ‘bonyads’ or ‘Foundations’; the Imam Reza Foundation, the Martyr’s Foundation, the Foundation of the Oppressed (to name only the three most powerful). Ostensibly charitable undertakings, these tax-exempt entities control 35 percent of the Iranian economy and are answerable to no one but the ‘Supreme Leader’ (private businesses are subject to some four dozen different taxes). The ‘Supreme Leader’ appoints the foundation directors, mostly clerics, who in local parlance are called "little kings" or "millionaire mullahs". And, then there are ‘aqazadeh-ha’ literally ‘sons of important men’. The Imam Reza Foundation, the Martyr’s Foundation and the Foundation of the Oppressed have accumulated assets estimated at $20 billion, $15 billion and $12 billion, respectively. The bonyads enjoy monopolistic privileges — manufacture of cars, import-export, food, oil and almost everything else — and have choked off all private initiative (the media is not allowed to challenge the bonyads).

Maria Sarsalari, a writer from the BBC Persian Service, was recently told that "in the Shah’s time ..... people at the top would eat their bread, and we used to get the crumbs. But nowadays .... mullahs lick their plates so clean that there’s not a single thing left over for the rest of us."

Independent economists put the rate of inflation at 30 percent and rising (the root cause being stubborn budgetary deficits, frequent supply shocks and absence of monetary and fiscal discipline). Budget deficit often exceeds seven percent of GDP. Youth unemployment approaches 30 percent (28 percent of all Iranians are between 0-14 years old and 67 percent are between 15-64 years old). In essence, the fundamentally flawed blend of Islam and Socialism is ruining whatever is left of OPEC’s 2nd largest oil producer.

The ‘Leaders of the Revolution’ now want to prove it to their 70 million ‘compatriots’ that they are at least capable of producing weapons-grade uranium. Iran officially maintains that her "nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful". To be sure, nuclear energy is expensive especially when one has 133 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 812 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves.

On 6 June 2003, International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Director General submitted a report to the Board of Governors stating that "Iran had failed to meet its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement with respect to the reporting of nuclear material imported into Iran and the subsequent processing and use of the material, and the declaring of facilities and other locations where the material had been stored and processed (GOV2003-40)."

On June 13, the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran responded to IAEA’s allegations. Iran declared that "all contaminations have been caused by foreign imported components. Gradual evolution of Agency’s findings with regard to 54% HEU contamination has now confirmed Iran’s statement that 54% contamination is from imported components (http://www.iaea.or.at)." In November 2003, Iran agreed to "halt all enrichment-related activities and sign an Additional Protocol containing provisions for enhanced inspection." On December 18, Iran signed the additional protocol and IAEA decided not to declare Iran "in violation of the NPT".

On 25 February 2004, Director General Mohamed ElBaradei told the Associated Press that "Iran had failed to disclose the P2 centrifuge designs." On March 12, "Iran abruptly froze further UN inspections of its nuclear programme for six weeks (http://www.guardian.co.uk)." On June 14, ElBaradei submitted a written statement to IAEA Board of Governors stating that "the information provided by Iran in April 2004 — information requested since August 2003 — has not been sufficient...." adding that "resolving the issue of contamination, however, requires the cooperation of other States from which the contaminated equipment is believed to have originated."

On October 21, according to a confidential document obtained by Agence France Press (AFP), "Britain, France and Germany are ready to promise Iran nuclear technology, including supplying a light-water rector, if Tehran indefinitely suspends all uranium enrichment activities." On October 24, AFP reported that "Iran rejected European demands that it halt all uranium enrichment activities."

The Bush White House has so far failed to take Iran to the UN Security Council (the SC could impose sanctions). Britain, France and Germany continue to search for diplomatic alternatives, and Iran continues to use the three as useful shields (Russians coined the term "useful idiots".)

The next crucial date is November 25 when IAEA Board of Governors is scheduled to meet in Vienna. Member States represented on the Board are Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Ecuador, France, Germany, Ghana, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Singapore, Slovakia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Tunisia, UK, US, Venezuela, Vietnam and Yemen.

The US is expected to request the Board to adopt a resolution declaring Iran in non-compliance to The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Under Rule 37 of the ‘Rules and Procedures of the Board of Governors’ a simple majority is required to refer Iran to the Security Council (http://www.iaea.org/About/Policy).

Will Iran be referred to the Security Council? Are there UN sanctions in Iran’s future? These are questions that only time will answer. The more important questions, however, are: What would nuclear weapons do for Iran? Would nuclear weapons benefit any one of the 30 million Iranians currently living in abject poverty? Who would Iran use her nuclear weapons against (at least six of Iran’s neighbours — Pakistan, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Turkey and Turkmenistan — are Muslim)?

11-07-2004, 00:44 AM	#1 (permalink)
tarek *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 12-06-03 Posts: 996	Iran and the Bomb Iran and the bomb Dr Farrukh Saleem Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran has what no other country does; 55 million educated citizens plus 133 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. At the current rate of production Iran’s oil reserves would last for another 99 years, and at the current market rate the oil reserves alone are worth a colossal $7 trillion (Iran also has 812 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves). Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran can be the best of the best. Iranians can be richer than the richest. Iran’s corporate sector can be wealthier than the wealthiest. Alas, Jomhuri-ye Eslami-ye Iran is nowhere near where it ought to be. At least 40 percent of all Iranians are now living below the line of poverty (35 percent of all Pakistanis are under the poverty level). Iran’s Human Development Index (HDI) is at 101; a hundred countries being better off than Iran. According to Transparency International (TI), Iran is one of the most corrupt of the corrupt. In TI’s 2004 Corruption Perceptions Index (10, highly clean and 0, highly corrupt) Iran scored a pathetic 2.9. India at 2.8 was only a notch behind; Pakistan was at 2.1 while Israel scored a high 6.4 with only 25 countries in the world less corrupt than Israel (and 125 more corrupt than Israel). Where did Iran go wrong? To begin with, ‘Leaders of the Revolution’ mixed up Islam and Socialism. Consider, for instance, Article 44 of the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran: "The state sector is to include all large-scale and mother industries, foreign trade, major minerals, banking, insurance, power generation, dams and large-scale irrigation networks, radio and television, post, telegraph and telephone services, aviation, shipping, roads, railroads and the like; all these will be publicly owned and administered by the State." After 25 years of State Ownership, Iran’s banks, insurance companies, aviation, shipping, foreign trade entities and railroads are all on the verge of a major meltdown (subsidies from oil exports being the only savoir). Almost everything — except for small workshops, farming and services — is owned by the State. State Ownership of resources has distorted every force of demand and supply in each and every aspect of Iranian economy. Seventy million Iranians produce little — other than pistachios and carpets — that Iran can export to the rest of the world. As a consequence, Iran’s latest trade deficit amounted to a colossal $20.6 billion (excluding oil and gas exports). Then there are ‘bonyads’ or ‘Foundations’; the Imam Reza Foundation, the Martyr’s Foundation, the Foundation of the Oppressed (to name only the three most powerful). Ostensibly charitable undertakings, these tax-exempt entities control 35 percent of the Iranian economy and are answerable to no one but the ‘Supreme Leader’ (private businesses are subject to some four dozen different taxes). The ‘Supreme Leader’ appoints the foundation directors, mostly clerics, who in local parlance are called "little kings" or "millionaire mullahs". And, then there are ‘aqazadeh-ha’ literally ‘sons of important men’. The Imam Reza Foundation, the Martyr’s Foundation and the Foundation of the Oppressed have accumulated assets estimated at $20 billion, $15 billion and $12 billion, respectively. The bonyads enjoy monopolistic privileges — manufacture of cars, import-export, food, oil and almost everything else — and have choked off all private initiative (the media is not allowed to challenge the bonyads). Maria Sarsalari, a writer from the BBC Persian Service, was recently told that "in the Shah’s time ..... people at the top would eat their bread, and we used to get the crumbs. But nowadays .... mullahs lick their plates so clean that there’s not a single thing left over for the rest of us." Independent economists put the rate of inflation at 30 percent and rising (the root cause being stubborn budgetary deficits, frequent supply shocks and absence of monetary and fiscal discipline). Budget deficit often exceeds seven percent of GDP. Youth unemployment approaches 30 percent (28 percent of all Iranians are between 0-14 years old and 67 percent are between 15-64 years old). In essence, the fundamentally flawed blend of Islam and Socialism is ruining whatever is left of OPEC’s 2nd largest oil producer. The ‘Leaders of the Revolution’ now want to prove it to their 70 million ‘compatriots’ that they are at least capable of producing weapons-grade uranium. Iran officially maintains that her "nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful". To be sure, nuclear energy is expensive especially when one has 133 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 812 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves. On 6 June 2003, International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Director General submitted a report to the Board of Governors stating that "Iran had failed to meet its obligations under its Safeguards Agreement with respect to the reporting of nuclear material imported into Iran and the subsequent processing and use of the material, and the declaring of facilities and other locations where the material had been stored and processed (GOV2003-40)." On June 13, the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran responded to IAEA’s allegations. Iran declared that "all contaminations have been caused by foreign imported components. Gradual evolution of Agency’s findings with regard to 54% HEU contamination has now confirmed Iran’s statement that 54% contamination is from imported components (http://www.iaea.or.at)." In November 2003, Iran agreed to "halt all enrichment-related activities and sign an Additional Protocol containing provisions for enhanced inspection." On December 18, Iran signed the additional protocol and IAEA decided not to declare Iran "in violation of the NPT". On 25 February 2004, Director General Mohamed ElBaradei told the Associated Press that "Iran had failed to disclose the P2 centrifuge designs." On March 12, "Iran abruptly froze further UN inspections of its nuclear programme for six weeks (http://www.guardian.co.uk)." On June 14, ElBaradei submitted a written statement to IAEA Board of Governors stating that "the information provided by Iran in April 2004 — information requested since August 2003 — has not been sufficient...." adding that "resolving the issue of contamination, however, requires the cooperation of other States from which the contaminated equipment is believed to have originated." On October 21, according to a confidential document obtained by Agence France Press (AFP), "Britain, France and Germany are ready to promise Iran nuclear technology, including supplying a light-water rector, if Tehran indefinitely suspends all uranium enrichment activities." On October 24, AFP reported that "Iran rejected European demands that it halt all uranium enrichment activities." The Bush White House has so far failed to take Iran to the UN Security Council (the SC could impose sanctions). Britain, France and Germany continue to search for diplomatic alternatives, and Iran continues to use the three as useful shields (Russians coined the term "useful idiots".) The next crucial date is November 25 when IAEA Board of Governors is scheduled to meet in Vienna. Member States represented on the Board are Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Ecuador, France, Germany, Ghana, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Singapore, Slovakia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Tunisia, UK, US, Venezuela, Vietnam and Yemen. The US is expected to request the Board to adopt a resolution declaring Iran in non-compliance to The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Under Rule 37 of the ‘Rules and Procedures of the Board of Governors’ a simple majority is required to refer Iran to the Security Council (http://www.iaea.org/About/Policy). Will Iran be referred to the Security Council? Are there UN sanctions in Iran’s future? These are questions that only time will answer. The more important questions, however, are: What would nuclear weapons do for Iran? Would nuclear weapons benefit any one of the 30 million Iranians currently living in abject poverty? Who would Iran use her nuclear weapons against (at least six of Iran’s neighbours — Pakistan, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Turkey and Turkmenistan — are Muslim)?

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