The West Is Falling Into Iranian Trap - Page 2

Ray · 01-18-2006, 10:28 AM

Now figure out what it will be if the Straits of Hormuz is blocked!

Axing your own feet!

Also, it is a moot point regarding the capacity of the oil pipelines even if oil is pumped at full speed 24x7, in the event oil rerouted to other ports i.e. the amount that is blocked by scuttling ships.

Swift Sword · 01-18-2006, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sparten

Here's a picture of the Straits of Hormuz

Scuttle a couple of dozen large Oil Tankers and or Freighters and you have just managed to seal off the Persian Gulf to traffic for the next year. Probably why the rest of the world is acting with kid gloves reletively speaking.

I think a lot less effort could be expended for causing enough trouble.

There is ample historical evidence that attacking tankers causes systemic effects such as panic on trading floors, rate increases, insurance increases, etc. that have a negative strategic impact on the situation.

With, IIRC, a third of the World's crude supply transiting those waters on a given day, any sign of potential disruption is going to effect a response.

Small boat attacks and AShM attacks are within the capabilities of the Iranians as well as mines which I would consider to be a greater threat.

The USN has had some experience dealing with Iranian small boat action and mines in the past so contingency planning has a leg up. However, if attacked, I suspect that the Iranians will put up a more robust effort this time around.

The Iranians have the capability to do some particularly nasty things to shipping in the region if they choose to use it. They might mine both the Red Sea and the Straits of Hormuz (though the former would require prepositioned ship).

The speedboat attacks should be easy enough to deal with and I suspect that strikes against any AShM shore batteries would be near the top of the list in the event of hostilities against Iran. It would only take one tanker getting hit with a Silkworm to seriously upset some people.

Swift Sword · 01-18-2006, 13:35 PM

With regards to military action against Iran in general, it would appear that the Bush Administration does not have a comprehensive Iran policy in place which might complicate things.

BenRoethig · 01-20-2006, 08:51 AM

I don't like this situation at all. Israel will strike if they believe Iran poses a legitimate threat and given the nature of the situation I wouldn't count out smaller yield nukes. Then with Iran as unpredicitible as they are, who knows what will happen if they're backed in a corner.

01-18-2006, 10:28 AM	#16 (permalink)
Ray Postmaster General *Military Professional* Join Date: 08-20-03 Posts: 25,693 Country:	Now figure out what it will be if the Straits of Hormuz is blocked! Axing your own feet! Also, it is a moot point regarding the capacity of the oil pipelines even if oil is pumped at full speed 24x7, in the event oil rerouted to other ports i.e. the amount that is blocked by scuttling ships. __________________ "Some have learnt many Tricks of sly Evasion, Instead of Truth they use Equivocation, And eke it out with mental Reservation, Which is to good Men an Abomination." I don't have to attend every argument I'm invited to. HAKUNA MATATA Last edited by Ray : 01-18-2006 at 10:32 AM.

01-20-2006, 08:51 AM	#19 (permalink)
BenRoethig *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 01-03-04 Location: Dubuque, IA Posts: 1,032 Country:	I don't like this situation at all. Israel will strike if they believe Iran poses a legitimate threat and given the nature of the situation I wouldn't count out smaller yield nukes. Then with Iran as unpredicitible as they are, who knows what will happen if they're backed in a corner. __________________ F/A-18E/F Super Hornet: The Honda Accord of fighters.

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01-18-2006, 13:35 PM	#18 (permalink)
Swift Sword *Senior Contributor* Join Date: 10-23-05 Location: Carl Perkins' Cadillac Posts: 764	With regards to military action against Iran in general, it would appear that the Bush Administration does not have a comprehensive Iran policy in place which might complicate things.

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