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Fall in global crude prices to ease oil losses at home
NEW DELHI, SEPT 27: The country’s largest oil marketing and refining firm, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) expects its daily losses on domestic sales of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene to come down to Rs 50 to 60 crore a day from October, compared with the present losses of around Rs 90 crore a day.
As the current LPG and kerosene prices are based on the average LPG price prevailing in the previous month, domestic lifting of LPG and kerosene by PSU oil companies from private refiners like Reliance is based on higher prices.
Although with the softening of international crude oil prices, from $78 a barrel to the current $60 levels, global LPG and kerosene prices have also dropped, the exact impact of this fall will be appropriated only once new LPG and kerosene prices are announced on October 1.
“If the existing trend in crude prices continues for the next fortnight, our under-recoveries would come down to around Rs 50 to 60 crore per day,” a senior IOC official said.
While under-recoveries of oil marketing firms including IOC, BPCL and HPCL will improve substantially following a $10 plus fall in the global crude oil prices, this will also mean a lower subsidy sharing by upstream firms like ONGC and OIL.
But will this have a negative impact on the profitability of firms like ONGC and OIL? ONGC CMD RS Sharma said, “Even when global crude oil prices touched new highs in June, the net realisation to ONGC was $45 a barrel as against the gross billings of $72 a barrel. There would be no negative impact on the company’s profits as the net realisations of $42 a barrel, which was the case last fiscal when crude oil averaged $59 a barrel, will not come down even this year.”
It may be noted here that contribution by ONGC and OIL is in the form of discounts on crude oil sales. While the discount by ONGC and OIL on crude oil sales to refiners stood at $17 a barrel for the last fiscal, this went up to $27 a barrel in the first quarter of the current fiscal after a sudden spike in international oil prices to $78 a barrel.
Therefore, if prices continue to fall, the contribution from upstream oil companies in sharing the losses of oil marketing firms will also come down. In addition, the proposed Rs 28,300 crore of oil bonds by the government as its support may also be reduced. Currently, the Cabinet has already approved issuance of Rs 14,000 crore of oil bonds to the state-owned oil marketing companies and around Rs 7,000 crore has already been disbursed so far.
The Indian basket of crude is currently ruling at $56.28 a barrel, down from historic highs of $74 a barrel in the last month.
Currently, while petrol is being sold at a profit of 90 paise a litre, the losses in diesel still stand at Rs 6 a litre.
The impact on kerosene and LPG will be clear next month as current prices are based on the previous month’s average, which was quiet high. The under-recovery on LPG and kerosene stand at Rs 200 a cylinder and Rs 16 a litre respectively.
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_f...tent_id=141695
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Regular
EU, India to seek free trade pact
STRASBOURG, FRANCE, SEPTEMBER 27: The European Union and India, one of Asia's fastest growing economies, will signal next month their intention to negotiate a free trade agreement, the EU's Executive Commission said on Wednesday.
An Oct 13 summit in Helsinki will "recommend that both the European Union and India move towards negotiations for such an agreement," EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson said in a statement to the European Parliament.
While the talks would not start immediately, 'we will launch positive signals at the summit that we are heading in that direction', said the statement read to lawmakers by Commissioner Joe Borg because Mandelson is in the United States.
The trade chief said earlier this month Brussels was hoping to negotiate free trade pacts with India, South Korea and countries in Southeast Asia.
He has insisted that regional and bilateral trade deals are no substitute for the World Trade Organisation's multilateral round of global trade negotiations, which stalled in July due to stubborn differences among key players.
European trade experts have increasingly focused on Asia where the EU has no regional or bilateral agreements while the United States and Japan have recently made inroads.
Mandelson said that before any talks are launched with New Delhi, the EU wants to deepen discussions on sensitive areas with India such as removing barriers to trade in services, intellectual property protection and public procurement.
http://www.financialexpress.com/late...tent_id=141685
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Regular
Growth gung ho, up by 8.9%
NEW DELHI, SEPTEMBER 29: Indian economy grew by a robust 8.9 per cent in the first quarter this fiscal compared to 8.5 per cent in the corresponding period last fiscal, on the back of a strong growth in manufacturing and services sectors.
While agriculture remained stagnant at 3.4 per cent during April-June 2006-07, manufacturing sector rose 11.3 per cent in the first three months of the current fiscal as against 10.7 per cent in the same period of 2005-06, according to government data released on Friday.
In services, trade, hotels, transport and communications sector showed the highest growth of 13.2 per cent in the first quarter compared to 11.7 per cent in the year-ago period.
Construction sector, however, slowed down to 9.5 per cent this year from 12.5 per cent, while growth in electricity, gas and water supply slipped to 5.4 per cent from 7.4 per cent in April-June 2005-06.
Mining sector registered a growth of 3.4 per cent this fiscal compared to 3.1 per cent. Financing, insurance, real estate and business services grew marginally higher at 8.9 per cent as against 8.8 per cent, and community, social and personal services rose by 7.4 per cent from 7.3 per cent in the corresponding period of last year.
In rupee terms, GDP at factor cost stood at Rs 6,56,064 crore in the first quarter this fiscal as against Rs 6,02,476 crore in April-June 2005-06.
http://www.financialexpress.com/late...tent_id=141890
Last edited by santosh tiwari; 30 Sep 06, at 06:09.
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RBI says oil not too low, welcomes GDP data
PUNE (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Rakesh Mohan said on Friday that oil prices were not too low even at current levels, and that there were considerable lags before monetary policy changes had an impact.
"Oil prices are volatile. They went up suddenly and came down suddenly. By no stretch of imagination, oil prices are not too low even at these levels," Mohan told reporters at a banking seminar in Pune.
A fall in global oil prices to six-month lows has sparked speculation the RBI may hold rates steady at its policy review in October.
Mohan also welcomed data on Friday showing the economy grew at a faster-than-expected annual rate of 8.9 percent in the April-June quarter, while the annual inflation rate moderated to 4.56 percent on Sept 16 from 4.61 percent a week earlier.
"GDP and inflation are very welcome numbers. The best thing that a central bank can want is high growth and low inflation," he said.
The central bank has raised its benchmark short-term interest rate three times so far this year, each time by 25 basis points to calm inflation pressures arising out of robust growth.
The benchmark rate is at 6.0 percent and the central bank holds its next review on Oct. 31.
"There are considerable lags in monetary policy actions," Mohan said, when asked about his view on interest rates.
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Regular
Scorching quarter may lift GDP trajectory
At 8.9%, Q1 growth highest since 2000-01.
A strong showing in services and manufacturing saw the Indian economy beat all forecasts with 8.9 per cent growth during the April-June quarter, its highest first-quarter growth rate since 2000-01.
Cheering the data, the BSE Sensex rose 73.68 points, or 0.60 per cent, to close at 12,454.42.
Even as Finance Minister P Chidambaram said a combination of reform and discipline could enable the economy to sustain growth rates of more than 8 per cent in the coming quarters, data released elsewhere suggest buoyant growth prospects for the economy, fears of a slowdown in the US next year notwithstanding.
The rate of inflation fell to 4.56 per cent for the week ended September 16 from 4.61 per cent in the previous week.
Chidambaram said his target was to drive it below 4 per cent, which could lead to easing of interest rates in the days to come.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which raised its key short-term interest rate thrice during 2006 to cool the economy and check inflation pressures, next reviews policy on October 31. At its last review in July, the RBI increased rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 6 per cent.
Data released by the RBI show the current account deficit rose sharply to $6.1 billion in April-June from $3.55 billion in the same quarter of the previous year, though the spurt was mainly on account of the rising oil import bill.
A National Sample Survey report says there has been an improvement in the country’s overall employment rate, which increased to 42 per cent during July 2004-June 2005 from around 39 per cent during January-June 2004.
“I am confident the GDP will grow by at least 7.5 per cent every quarter now and even touch 8 per cent if we follow prudent policies and fiscal discipline,” Chidambaram said.
Economist Omkar Goswami said the data was a “wonderful example of how great economics and entrepreneurial opportunity can temporarily overcome non-existent governance”. He estimated growth for the full year at between 8 per cent and 8.2 per cent.
Ajit Ranade, chief economist, Aditya Birla Group, said the figures were slightly better than expected. Stating that growth in the latter half might be slightly lower, he estimated full year growth at around 7.5 per cent.
Chidambaram attributed the robust first quarter GDP growth to a 31 per cent rise in bank credit, a 36.2 per cent growth in commercial vehicle production, a 32.2 per cent increase in civil aviation passenger traffic and a 48.9 per cent increase in telephone connections.
The services sector grew by 10.6 per cent, while agriculture grew by a flat 3.4 per cent. Except for electricity and construction, which slowed down to 5.4 per cent and 9.5 per cent from 7.4 per cent and 12.4 per cent, respectively, every sector recorded an acceleration in growth.
For 2005-06, the country’s GDP grew by 8.4 per cent. The RBI has forecast a growth of 7.5-8 per cent for the current financial year.
The prime minister’s Economic Advisory Council has projected a 7.9 per cent growth rate, while the Asian Development Bank has estimated growth at 7.8 per cent for the year.
http://www.business-standard.com/com...Left=0&chkFlg=
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We must act now to save the planet, says PwC
Ashley Seager
September 30, 2006
THE world would have to give up only one year's economic growth over the next four decades to reduce carbon emissions enough to stave off the threat of global warming.
According to consultants at PricewaterhouseCoopers, a "green growth plus" strategy, combining energy efficiency, greater use of renewables and carbon capture could, by 2050, cut emissions by 60 per cent from the level they would reach if no action were taken. Nuclear energy could play a role, but would not be crucial.
But the PwC report warns its scenario, which involves little real sacrifice in economic growth, can only be achieved if embarked upon without delay.
"If countries adopt a business-as-usual approach, the result could be a more than doubling of global carbon emissions by 2050," said John Hawksworth, head of macro-economics at PwC. "Our analysis suggests that there are technologically feasible and relatively low-cost options for controlling carbon emissions to the atmosphere. Estimates suggest that the level of GDP might be reduced by no more than 2-3 per cent in 2050 if this strategy is followed."
PwC envisages the Group of Seven leading economies taking the initiative, cutting their emissions by about half by 2050, while the fast-growing E7, the emerging economies of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey, could still increase their emissions by 30 per cent by 2050.
"If this is to be achieved it will take further concerted action by governments, businesses and individuals over a broad range of measures to boost energy efficiency, adopt a greener fuel mix and introduce carbon capture and storage technologies in power plants and other major industrial facilities," Mr Hawksworth said.
The report says a combination of all these measures will be necessary to stabilise global CO2 levels at 450 parts per million, the figure scientific opinion judges broadly acceptable.
The PwC projections predict China will overtake the US as the world's biggest emitter of CO2 by 2010, while total E7 emissions would be more than double G7 emissions by 2050, with the "big three" — China, the US and India — accounting for just over half, up from 45 per cent now.
The European Union could cut its share of global emissions to less than 9 per cent by 2050 from 15 per cent now, it said.
Using a less carbon-intensive fuel mix would be enough to reduce carbon emissions by 25 per cent. PwC's view that renewables could do the job without nuclear could undermine British Prime Minister Tony Blair's argument that atomic power is crucial.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/busine...337341539.html
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China, India deals in Africa cause concern
WASHINGTON, SEPTEMBER 30: China and India should be wooed into coordinating their investments in Africa in line with that of the broader donor community, development officials said on Friday, as calls for more coherent aid policies mount.
"We need to talk with China and India about their methods in Africa," the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Richard Manning told a group of policy-makers from public and private institutions.
"China's methods of doing business in Africa is causing concern. They make surprisingly little use of local actors in their investments there," he added.
Talk of more coordinated and coherent foreign aid has been growing in official and civil society circles in Washington. Earlier this year a book by former World Bank economist William Easterly asserted that much of the $2.3 trillion in aid over the last 50 years has been squandered.
Chinese officials are due in Europe later this year to consult on best practices in foreign aid and Shanghai will host the African Development Bank's annual meeting next year. Both venues will offer opportunities for the West to share its hard-learned lessons, Manning said.
"Africa is unusually unindebted, but still very poor. We need to go forward with grants," said Manning, who chairs the OECD's development assistance committee. "The danger is Africa will be offered concessional loans and will find itself in the same debt situation as before in 10 years from now."
The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have written off more than $40 billion in debt for dozens of the world's poorest countries in the past year, most of them in Africa.
"Donors really have to get their act together and coordinate their activities," Manning added. "Africans themselves want to see a much bigger emphasis on infrastructure."
Billionaire philanthropists like Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have joined the donor community this year, just as China and India grow as development investors, and are consulting Washington-based multilateral lenders on how best to proceed.
"Now there are new groups of private donors and we need to coordinate with them too," said James Smith, a senior official at the US Agency for International Development.
The World Bank's internal watchdog agency earlier this month warned that donors too often rush in to rebuild post-conflict countries, overwhelm them with an array of unprioritized reforms and misjudge how much cash to offer.
"You need discipline in the donor community to coordinate what you are doing," Smith said. "I'm a big fan of sector-wide approaches, but it's not easy."
http://www.financialexpress.com/late...tent_id=141996
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Senior Contributor