The much trumpeted MORI poll

**~~Hongkongfuey~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 11:22

It's time to set the facts right on the Mori poll. That's the purpose of this thread, because it's been used time and time again by certain posters as some sort of bizarre "proof" that Kashmiris would want to join with India rather than Pakistan in plebiscite. First i'll set you up with an article about the MORI poll by an Indian paper, to give you an idea of who and what was behind the poll, and the possible motives and then i shall give you some expert analysis, courtesy of myself

I think you will find my analysis holds more water than that of the likes of Sameer and Indianguy4u.

Who commissioned the MORI survey?

Survey officials fight shy of naming client – was it Government of J&K, Government of India, the notorious RAW, big business, or was it the Government of the United Kingdom? says John Dayal

Euphoric newspapers flashed the PTI news on page one, and next day, Editorial writers said the UK based market research company Mori had been quite right in stating that most Kashmiris (in the Indian part of Kashmir) would rather stay with India than go to Pakistan. Unfortunately, the unpublished fact was that only nine (9) per cent of the people in Srinagar thought so, while 13 per cent preferred a Pakistani citizenship. The happier figures came from Jammu.

Many questions remain unanswered about the survey, including the one as to who financed it. Mori does not do things for free. Their interests at all times, it makes clear, are commercial with a bottom line it must, correctly, meet. Interestingly, there is no record if Mori ever conducted a similar survey in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, of Azad Kashmir as Islamabad describes it. If the Indian government did not finance the survey, further questions are raised as to how such a sensitive survey was permitted to be conducted at a time when India and Pakistan are threatening a nuclear war and the state of Jammu and Kashmir is at the epicenter of the confrontation.

Tracing the India link of Mori was not difficult, but getting an answer was impossible. Mori does its India work through Prakash Nijhara, of an outfit based in Mumbai and called “Facts Worldwide India Pvt Ltd.” Prakash, reached on his mobile phone refused to give any details, other than saying that the company as a matter of policy keeps the identity of its clients a close secret. He would neither confirm nor deny speculation on whether the client was a corporate one, or Indian or foreign government.

Perhaps he has reason to keep that matter confidential. The report sent by PTI and used by the Indian media patriotically, has larger dimensions than the ones published. While Indian newspapers published all that favoured India, the PTI report did not mention the extent of polarization on the basis of religion the survey revealed in the Indian Kashmir between people living in Jammu, the valley and in Leh. Jammu is largely Hindu, the Valley largely Muslim (more so after the forced exit in the last ten years of the Kashmiri Pundits who fled in the face of terrorist violence which began when Jagmohan was governor of the state), and Leh has a substantial Buddhist flavour.

The report shows perceptions differ on almost every issue. The people of Jammu oppose greater autonomy for Kashmir, an ardent desire of the people of the valley. On human rights violations by militant groups in Jammu and Kashmir, 96% of those in Jammu believe such violations are widespread whereas only 2% of those in Srinagar believe they are widespread (although 33% believe they are 'occasional'). Perceptions of the role of Pakistan are also mixed. Those in Jammu and Leh mostly blame Pakistan, while those in Srinagar more think it has made no real difference (41%) than that it has been either good (35%) or bad (23%).

On the issue of citizenship, 99% of respondents in Jammu and 100% in Leh felt they would be better off as Indian citizens, 78% of those in Srinagar said they did not know while 9% felt they would be better off as Indian citizens and 13% as Pakistani citizens.

In the interests of the full truth, the following is the full public text of MORI’s public statement on their survey, as also details about Mori and its affiliate in India.
http://www.milligazette.com/Archive.../1506200228.htm

Expert analysis by HongKongFuey
Hindus (Jammu), Buddhists (Leh), who have no affiliation to Pakistan think that ECONOMICALLY they would be better off joining with India (this is true, they probably would be). Muslims (Srinigar, the Valley), believe they would be better off joining Pakistan than India, ECONOMICALLY (which they probably wouldnt but they still prefer to join with Pakistan than India). The majority of the Kashmiri population is Muslim, hence the Valley would be more indicative of the true attitude of the majority of Kashmiris (as Kashmiris are a majority Muslim population after all). So hold the plebiscite, Pakistan in fact advocates free and fair plebiscite!!

**bull** · 07 Sep 05,, 11:31

whoa!!!
Some one just gave an expert analysis!!!

Im sorry cant stop laughing.

**~~Hongkongfuey~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 11:35

Some more analysis of the clever questions asked by Mori, as provided by aryan.

First of all, you need to bear in mind this poll was conducted in a region known for voter intimidation and bullying by security forces, as late as the 2002 election (as reported by many western news sources). You can't take its validity for granted just as you couldn't take any poll conducted in Saddam's Iraq on his popularity as gospel. The only real way to ascertain Kashmiri feeling is an impartial UN sponsored plebscite, in the absence of foreign soldiers or security forces. HongKongfuey comment. Yep, coersion has been used by many Indian troops during previous elections. Fear of the common Kashmiri Muslim of reprisals by Indian troops would cause them to appease their surveryors.

A very clear majority of the population - 65% - believes the presence of foreign militants in Jammu and Kashmir is damaging to the Kashmir cause, and most of the rest take the view that it is neither damaging nor helpful.

Believing the militants are damaging to the Kashmiri cause is by no means asserts what you are intending, that Kashmiris hate militants and love the occupation soldiers. Its interesting to

Overall, two thirds of people in Jammu and Kashmir take the view that Pakistan's involvement in the region for the last ten years has been bad. Only 15% believe it has been good for the region, while 18% say it has made no real difference.

Again, the conclusions you may from this are wrong. Notice the fact it mentions the past 10 years. Believing the involvement of Pakistan to be bad over the past 10 years is not necessarily evidence that Kashmiris feel Pakistan's involvement to be bad over the past 60 years. Also, the negative involvement may be because Kashmiris feel Pakistan of the past 10 years isn't doing enough to assist the freedom struggle, and just paying it lip service. Addendum, HongKongFuey - Three locations were surveyed, Jammu (mainly hindu) would of course be think that Pakistan's involvement was bad. The Kashmir Valley (mainly Muslim) statistics, where are they? why arent they included? The Kashmir Valley is more representative of the make-up of the Kashmiri population because Kashmir is mainly Muslim). Jammu has been given a disproportionate weight since it is an oddity in Kashmir demographics. End Addendum, HongKongFuey

On the issue of citizenship, overall, 61% said they felt they would be better off politically and economically as an Indian citizen and only 6% as a Pakistani citizen, but 33% said they did not know."

This is a carefully worded question. It isn't asking whether Kashmiris would prefer to be Indian or Pakistani, its asking which would make them better off politically and economically. Its obvious Kashmiris would be better off being Indians, simply because India has far more money to throw at Kashmir and their stooges in Srinagar. India is a larger and more economically powerful country than Pakistan.
Addendum, HongKongFuey - Three locations were surveyed, Jammu (mainly hindu) would of course be better of politically as part of India in the eyes of those people. The Kashmir Valley (mainly Muslim) would prefer to be with Pakistan than India. The Kashmir Valley is more representative of the make-up of the Kashmiri population because Kashmir is mainly Muslim). Jammu has been given a disproportionate weight since it is an oddity in Kashmir demographics. End Addendum, HongKongFuey

**indianguy4u** · 07 Sep 05,, 11:38

Some more analysis of the clever questions asked by Mori, as provided by aryan.

Are u paid agent of someone. Who the hell is he. Whats his repute. Has he contributed in any papers/site of repute. Supporters jihadi & terrorist pigs.

**~~Hongkongfuey~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 11:51

MUMBAI: Times News Network interviewed 59-year-old Prakash Nijhara, managing director of Facts Worldwide, an affiliate of Mori in India, which conducted the survey in Kashmir.
Excerpts: Who commissioned Mori to conduct the opinion poll?
I am sorry I cannot disclose that. I have been asked by Mori to maintain the confidentiality of the client. hkf

How many people were interviewed by your staff ?
We interviewed 850 persons. Oooo, 850 out of 8 million people and you interviwed a third of them from Hindu dominated Jammu, even though Kashmir is about 80% Muslim

)
Don’t you think that this sample is too small considering the fact that J&K has population of at least six million people as per the 1981 census?
Definitely not. hkf

This sample is large enough to reflect the true mood of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. We interviewed persons in the 16-plus age category and the survey was spread across 55 localities. Of these, 22 were in Jammu, 20 in Srinagar, six in Leh, four in rural areas around Srinagar and three in areas around Jammu. The quotas were set by gender and religion within each locality. The survey covered all the parameters taken into consideration in an exercise of this nature. Any other opinion poll agency would have done the same thing. Let me also point out that Mori is to the UK what Gallup is to the US. It enjoys a high level of credibility.
But considering the fact that you are dealing with a sensitive and volatile region involved in a protracted international dispute, should your sample have been bigger? (and not representative of the majority Muslim population - HKF)
A lot of thought has gone into this survey. lol - hkf This issue raised by you was also debated by us with Mori and the client and it was felt that the sample of 850 would be appropriate. Most clients in India would use a similar sample size to get feedback on the issue on hand. The sample size used by us is fairly large and the margin of error in such an exercise would be plus or minus three. Face-toface interviews were conducted and, on an average, 35 minutes was spent with each member of the sample.
When was the survey conducted and are the findings reflective of the current mood in the state?
It was done from April 20 to 28 this year, which is a recent enough survey. Because of the tension, we had to complete the survey as expeditiously as possible. We had parallel teams working in Jammu and Srinagar and followed it up to Leh. Twenty people were involved in the exercise. The questionnaire was translated into Urdu and Hindi. In Srinagar, local people were engaged to conduct the interviews. The people were very receptive. The Union home ministry had granted us permission for the survey. But we were not required to use that.
If 61 per cent of Kashmiris want to be with India, wouldn’t it be in the interests of India to hold a plebiscite as demanded by Pakistan and solve the problem once for all?
This is something for the government of India to decide. All that I can say on the basis of the survey results is that 61 per cent of the people unequivocally stated that they would be better off politically and economically as Indian citizens and only six per cent favoured Pakistani citizenship.
J&K chief minister Farooq Abdullah and several others have suggested that the line of control (LoC) should be converted into an international border.
Why wasn’t this crucial question posed to the people?
This question has to answered by Kashmiris on either side of the LoC. Our sample did not include people in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
What is your own assessment of the situation in the Valley?
Based on the feedback which I got from there, I feel that there is a need to undertake a confidence-building exercise in the Valley. The government needs to take the people into confidence. Once that is done, it will be easier to tackle the problem. The people there want economic development and free and fair elections. We should do these things instead of being obsessed with Pakistan.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/a...,prtpage-1.cms

**bull** · 07 Sep 05,, 11:53

Originally Posted by Hongkongfuey

MUMBAI: Times News Network interviewed 59-year-old Prakash Nijhara, managing director of Facts Worldwide, an affiliate of Mori in India, which conducted the survey in Kashmir.
Excerpts: Who commissioned Mori to conduct the opinion poll?
I am sorry I cannot disclose that. I have been asked by Mori to maintain the confidentiality of the client. hkf

How many people were interviewed by your staff ?
We interviewed 850 persons. Oooo, 850 out of 8 million people and you interviwed a third of them from Hindu dominated Jammu, even though Kashmir is about 80% Muslim

)
Don’t you think that this sample is too small considering the fact that J&K has population of at least six million people as per the 1981 census?
Definitely not. hkf

This sample is large enough to reflect the true mood of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. We interviewed persons in the 16-plus age category and the survey was spread across 55 localities. Of these, 22 were in Jammu, 20 in Srinagar, six in Leh, four in rural areas around Srinagar and three in areas around Jammu. The quotas were set by gender and religion within each locality. The survey covered all the parameters taken into consideration in an exercise of this nature. Any other opinion poll agency would have done the same thing. Let me also point out that Mori is to the UK what Gallup is to the US. It enjoys a high level of credibility.
But considering the fact that you are dealing with a sensitive and volatile region involved in a protracted international dispute, should your sample have been bigger? (and not representative of the majority Muslim population - HKF)
A lot of thought has gone into this survey. lol - hkf This issue raised by you was also debated by us with Mori and the client and it was felt that the sample of 850 would be appropriate. Most clients in India would use a similar sample size to get feedback on the issue on hand. The sample size used by us is fairly large and the margin of error in such an exercise would be plus or minus three. Face-toface interviews were conducted and, on an average, 35 minutes was spent with each member of the sample.
When was the survey conducted and are the findings reflective of the current mood in the state?
It was done from April 20 to 28 this year, which is a recent enough survey. Because of the tension, we had to complete the survey as expeditiously as possible. We had parallel teams working in Jammu and Srinagar and followed it up to Leh. Twenty people were involved in the exercise. The questionnaire was translated into Urdu and Hindi. In Srinagar, local people were engaged to conduct the interviews. The people were very receptive. The Union home ministry had granted us permission for the survey. But we were not required to use that.
If 61 per cent of Kashmiris want to be with India, wouldn’t it be in the interests of India to hold a plebiscite as demanded by Pakistan and solve the problem once for all?
This is something for the government of India to decide. All that I can say on the basis of the survey results is that 61 per cent of the people unequivocally stated that they would be better off politically and economically as Indian citizens and only six per cent favoured Pakistani citizenship.
J&K chief minister Farooq Abdullah and several others have suggested that the line of control (LoC) should be converted into an international border.
Why wasn’t this crucial question posed to the people?
[COOR=red]This question has to answered by Kashmiris on either side of the LoC. Our sample did not include people in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. [/COLOR]
What is your own assessment of the situation in the Valley?
Based on the feedback which I got from there, I feel that there is a need to undertake a confidence-building exercise in the Valley. The government needs to take the people into confidence. Once that is done, it will be easier to tackle the problem. The people there want economic development and free and fair elections. We should do these things instead of being obsessed with Pakistan.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/a...,prtpage-1.cms

Thanks....(for the laugh)

**~~Sameer~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 15:24

Did you ever expect a people who live under a Millitary junta to even understand the concept of a poll, why else create the 3rd Kashmir thread lol.

Such desperation, such idiocy, such fundamentalism. Howcan we ever have peace with such Islamic extremist views

**~~Sameer~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 15:26

Did you even learn that 850 people selected randomly is a large enough sample size as per statistics 101, heard of beysian rule? Normal distribution?

How can we even discuss with such madrassah educated lot.

**~~Sameer~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 15:29

About the Islamic website used to "rip a British professional poll service apart"

from the CHinese named Pakistani's link

Before we could realize it, we have entered our sixth successful year of existence! A humble effort to put the community on the media map is a powerful voice today, heard not only in India but all over the world. For all our humble resources, we now reach all parts of the globe putting forward the news, views, developments and aspirations of the 1200-million strong Ummah of Islam. From 16 pages an issue we steadily progressed to 32 pages. We will, insha Allah, add more pages as we progress to a weekly, in due course of time, speaking for the whole Ummah and not just for the Indian Muslim community which is a very important member of the world Muslim community. We already have a national and international network of writers, correspondents and contributors. (To checkout The MG Team click here)
We receive visitors from from almost all countries such as Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, American Samoa, Andorra, Angola, Anguilla, Antarctica, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Azerbaidjan, Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bermuda, Bolivia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Botswana, Bouvet Island, Brazil, British Indian O. Terr., Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Buthan, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Cape Verde, Cayman Islands, Central African Rep., Chad, Chile, China, Christmas Island, Cocos (Keeling) Isl., Colombia, Comoros, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Djibouti, Dominica, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia, Ethiopia, Falkland Isl.(Malvinas), Faroe Islands, Fiji, Finland, France, France (European Ter.), French Southern Terr., Gabon, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Great Britain (UK), Greece, Greenland, Grenada, Guadeloupe (Fr.), Guam (US), Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Guyana, Guyana (Fr.), Haiti, Heard & McDonald Isl., Honduras, Hong Kong, Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Ivory Coast, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazachstan, Kenya, Kirgistan, Kiribati, Korea (North), Korea (South), Kuwait, Laos, Latvia, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Marshall Islands, Martinique (Fr.), Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Moldavia, Monaco, Mongolia, Montserrat, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Netherland Antilles, Netherlands, Neutral Zone, New Caledonia (Fr.), New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Norfolk Island, Northern Mariana Isl., Norway, Oman, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Papua New, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Pitcairn, Poland, Polynesia (Fr.), Portugal, Puerto Rico (US), Qatar, Reunion (Fr.), Romania, Russian Federation, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Samoa, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Africa, Soviet Union, Spain, Sri Lanka, St. Helena, St. Pierre & Miquelon, St. Tome and Principe, St. Kitts Nevis Anguilla, St.Vincent & Grenadines, Sudan, Suriname, Svalbard & Jan Mayen Is, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Syria, Tadjikistan, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tokelau, Tonga, Trinidad & Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Turks & Caicos Islands, Tuvalu, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, US Minor outlying Isl., Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Vatican City State, Venezuela, Vietnam, Virgin Islands (British), Virgin Islands (US), Wallis & Futuna Islands, Western Sahara, Yemen, Yugoslavia, Zaire, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

**~~Sameer~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 15:30

Islamic madrassah educated websites bent on the creation of the Ummah dont count in any intellectually fulfilling debates sorry.

The logic of HOng Kong seems to be a professional statisticalservice<Ummah kind website

**Jay** · 07 Sep 05,, 16:07

Originally Posted by Sameer

For all our humble resources, we now reach all parts of the globe putting forward the news, views, developments and aspirations of the 1200-million strong Ummah of Islam. From 16 pages an issue we steadily progressed to 32 pages. We will, insha Allah, add more pages as we progress to a weekly, in due course of time, speaking for the whole Ummah and not just for the Indian Muslim community which is a very important member of the world Muslim community

WTH is a Ummah?

1200 Mill? Not one less, not one more??

**~~Sameer~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 16:18

Ummah= One Islamic community, the creation of one Islamic state compromising of all the Muslims of the world is eventually envisaged.

**~~Sameer~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 16:45

Also in case HK has confused you with madrassah mathematics and statistics.

The actualy percentages of each religion as per MORI international, A PROFESSIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE REPUTED IN THE UK AND ABROAD, minus in jehadi circles of course, is as follows.

Religion

Muslim 60 %
Buddhist 4 %
Hindu 34 %
Christian *
Sikh 1 %

Town/region
Srinagar City 35 %
Jammu City 40 %
Leh 9 %
Rural (Srinagar) 7 %
Rural (Jammu) 8 %

Srinagar+ rural areas equals to 41%. Most responders (60%) were Muslims.

http://www.jammu-kashmir.com/insight...20020601b.html

**Jay** · 07 Sep 05,, 16:47

Originally Posted by Sameer

Ummah= One Islamic community, the creation of one Islamic state compromising of all the Muslims of the world is eventually envisaged.

I know what an Ummah is

I was wondering, if this so called ummah concept ever exist outside the author's otherwise empty space between his ears.

**~~Sameer~~** · 07 Sep 05,, 16:51

Also the Mori site mentions 95% confidence Interval, you do not have to be a statistics major to understand what this means and what this has to do with sample size accuracy.
(i have ajoint degree in the damn subject) but i will avoid lecturing and let google fill you in.

I simply could not help myself when i read and saw the Pakitani with the CHinese name laughing at a sample size of 850 randomly selected variables from a professional statistical institution reputed around the world.

But you are probably right HK a site serving the Ummah is probably better than a statistical institution. Afterall madrassahs teach this type of logic and we just cant beat that.