Thread: Pakistan's 25 years energy security plan.

By Engr. Hussain Ahmad Siddiqui

THE recently approved 25-year ‘energy security action plan’ envisages increasing power generation capacity, from installed capacity of 19,540 MW of electricity (expected by end 2005) to 162,590 MW by the year 2030.

The additional capacity of 143,050 MW will be created, under a phased programme, covering thermal, nuclear, hydro and other renewable energy resources. Implementation of the 2005-2030 plan will thus meet Pakistan’s future energy requirements to sustain present growth rate of economy.

The document envisages, medium and long-term strategies. In the first phase, capacity would be developed to the level of 7,880 MW, to reach a total capacity of 27,420 MW by 2010.

Likewise, power generation would increase by 20,120 MW during the period 2010-2015, achieving total capacity of 47,540 MW. During the subsequent five years (2015-2020) power generation is planned to increase by another 24,730 MW, total capacity to reach at 72,270 MW.

Similarly, during the period 2020-2025 the increase will be to the level of 38,490 MW whereas total capacity would then reach at 110,760 MW.

At the end of plan period the power generation would increase by 51,830 MW and total cumulative generation capacity to the level of 162,590 MW.

As on 31st March 2005, Pakistan has a total installed electricity generation capacity of 19,389 MW (Pakistan Economic Survey 2004-05), constituting as under:

Thermal 12,464mw 64.3 % of total

Hydel 6,463mw 33.3 % of total

Nuclear 462mw 2.4 % of total

To increase the power generation capacity with a view to support economic growth, the plan focuses on developing nuclear energy in a relatively bigger way. From only 400 MW of nuclear power generation capacity today (as per the document), it is projected to increase to 8,800 MW by the year 2030.

Thus there will be an addition of 8,400 MW nuclear power to the system, thereby increasing the share of nuclear power from present two to about six per cent within 25 years.

According to World Nuclear Association, Pakistan has two nuclear energy generators, which are covered by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, operatable as on 31st March 2005 with a net capacity of 425 MW, generating 1.8 billion kWh electricity, whereas a third reactor of 300 MW capacity is planned.

The country’s first nuclear power plant (KANUPP), of 137 MW gross capacity and 125 MW net capacity, was established at Karachi that has already achieved safe completion of its design life, and would be retired by 2019.

The second plant, Chashma Nuclear Power Plant unit-1 (CHASNUPP-1) of 325 MW gross capacity and 300 MW net output, was constructed in 1993 with the economic and technical assistance of the People’s Republic of China, and had commenced commercial operations in September 2000.

The groundbreaking ceremony of another plant, CHASNUPP-2 – proposed to be a replica unit of CHASNUPP-1, having the same size, technology and location – was held at Chashma, Mianwali on 8th, April, 2005. The plant, estimated to cost Rs52 billion including Chinese loan of $150 million, is scheduled to start construction in 2007 and would be operational by 2013.

Pakistan plans to construct more nuclear power plants, after CHASNUPP-2, to achieve its target of generating 8,800 MW by 2030. Capacity of the units would be increased from 300 MW to 600 MW and subsequently standardised at 1,000 MW.

According to the plan, nuclear power generation is to increase by 900 MW by the year 2015, whereas nuclear energy would add national capacity by 1,500 MW by the year 2020.

During the period 2020-2025 nuclear power is projected to increase by 2,000 MW. In subsequent five years (2025-2030), there will be an addition of 4,000 MW nuclear power installed capacity.

By any standards, it is an ambitious nuclear power generation programme that translates into manifold growth in the present capacity and greater reliance on nuclear power in future. The experts opine that increasing the installed nuclear power generation capacity to the level of 8,800 MW may not be the best option, particularly in relation to the future development of hydroelectric power.

Pakistan has abundant natural resources including coal, natural gas and hydropower. Proven coal resources, one of the largest in the world, are over 185 billion tons, whereas total annual extraction at present is hardly 3.5 million tons.

Likewise, natural gas reserves are to the tune of 45.34 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and balance recoverable reserves stands today at 28.09 TCF. Increased exploratory and production activities in oil and gas sector continue in the country, with an investment of $950 million in 2004 only, whereas transnational gas pipeline projects are also planned.

There are huge resources of hydro power which is a renewable source of energy. At present hydropower energy contributes only 6,463 MW to national power system. There is an additional potential for generating 41,722 MW hydropower that has already been identified.

The plan however proposes to exploit only part of waterpower potential and plans to generate hydro power additionally to the level of 26,200 MW by the year 2030.

Based on the studies undertaken in recent past, an additional 15,522 MW hydropower can be generated. Thus, logically there is a need instead to explore and exploit hydropower source of energy optimally to take care of future power demands.

Nuclear power is said to be dependable, relatively inexpensive and clean air energy. Advanced-design nuclear power plants are safer, more economical and efficient compared to last generation nuclear power reactors. For these reasons nuclear energy is regaining stature as a key energy source globally, particularly in the USA and China.

But the major factors influencing planned increase in nuclear power generation are depletion of reserves of fossil fuels and current optimal utilization of waterpower resources in these countries.

Moreover, they have their own resources for design, engineering and manufacturing of nuclear power plants, related R&D activities and facilities for fuel supply, which play a significant role in their opting for nuclear power generation. Worldwide about 20 per cent contribution to the total power generation is that of hydro and 16 per cent nuclear. USA is the second largest producer of hydro energy — generating over 250 billion kwh. Likewise, Norway obtains 99 per cent and New Zealand 75 per cent of its electricity through hydro power.

Comparing merits and de-merits of nuclear versus hydro power generation, the following factors are highlighted:

* First, hydro generation cost is the lowest comparable to the use of any other form of fuel. In the USA, it is almost half compared to nuclear – 0.85 cents per kwh against 1.80 cents that of nuclear power. The hydro power generation cost during the year 2000-01 was paisa 19.95 per kwh. The cost of building a nuclear power reactor is enormous. Capital cost of nuclear reactor works out to be $2.67 million per MW installed capacity, compared to $1 million per MW hydel power project of the same size.

The 1450-MW Ghazi Barotha hydel power project was constructed in 2003-2004 at a total cost of $2 billion compared to the proposed 325-MW CHASNUPP-2 at an estimated cost of US$ 880 million.

* Second, practically there is no fuel cost in case of hydel power, as water used is a renewable source. In case of nuclear energy there are rising fuel costs and unstable fuel supplies.

According to the World Nuclear Association, Pakistan currently requires 57 tons of uranium to operate its two reactors. For the 325 MW nuclear energy generator, China is supplying the fuel and Pakistan will continue to be dependent on foreign sources of fuel for its planned projects.

* Third, long gestation period is involved in case of nuclear plants as the construction period may be seven years as compared to a hydro power plant of the same size that may go on line within four years or so. Also, the life of a nuclear power plant is hardly 30 years whereas hydro power plants operate satisfactorily over a period of 50 to 60 years.

* Fourth, there are issues of security, safety and sustainability that are critical in case of nuclear power. Radioactive waste management and potential risk for major accidents have assumed high dimensions in present times.

* Lastly, to allow public sector to create additional capacity would be against the committed policies of the government that not only promote private sector to play a key role in the development of power generation but call for gradual withdrawal of current public sector investments in the field.

In conclusion, large-scale share of nuclear power is not considered to be in the larger national interest, particularly in comparison to developing hydropower potential, for the reasons of stable cost, low operating and maintenance expenses and lower generation cost.

Implementation of nuclear power plan may also run into snags due to a number of factors, technical and financial constraints notwithstanding, but mainly due to unstable international support experienced in the past.

Instead of experimenting on an action plan based on international trends and borrowed ideas, the planners should develop a perspective on fully realising indigenous energy resources integrating them with the local conditions.