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Thread: new Cold War?

  1. #271
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Noitartst View Post
    Indeed; folks like me who were trying hard not to see things as they were have been justly discredited, here. In fact, I blogged about it, here:
    noitartst.com

    No question to me we're in another ice age, but hopefully a mini one. In any event, we'll just hafta grit it out, and wait till Spring. Unfortunate, but we are where we are, like it, or lump it.

    BF is right. 11 posts and 7 plugs for your blog. No more please.
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  2. #272
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    http://thekievtimes.ua/politics/3469...avel-nuss.html
    "
    second link says
    "Right sector is financed by either Yanukovich or Medvedchuk" which is beyond insane. But it still follows through why are they trying to go after Medvedchuk.

    This dynamic is very interesting they are drumming up things to go after Medvedchuk. Very foolish.

    ByUT and Rada are loosing to Right Sector it seems. Not a good angle. They bought some time with Sashko investigation.
    My guess is something happens soon. Simply too much fear in the stories I read. Drumming up invisible enemies left and right, internal/external threats, and yet nothing is being done to stabilize the situation of lawfulness in the country or general normality of functions.

    Just when everyone thought external factors don't matter.
    http://russian.rt.com/article/25683
    Basically Yanukovich called all Ukranians to have a vote via referendum in every oblast to determine their future in Ukraine.
    I think this is very big. In some sense he is calling for a peaceful split if people want it.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  3. #273
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyppok View Post
    Simply too much fear in the stories I read.
    I doubt you have any idea how prescient an observation that is....and not just during the current crisis.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  4. #274
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    If true what RT is reporting, Merkel said no sanctions for Russia?
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  5. #275
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    Merkel said no to immediate harsher sanctions for Russia two days ago, but at the same time announced that there's pretty much a red line beyond which such an escalation would be deemed necessary.

    Merkel is currently busy with President Xi's visit though, with Ukraine being (a minor) part of the focus too.

    The buzz in the German press currently isn't so much about whether there should be sanctions, but to what extent sanctions would hurt the German economy - we're talking up to 7.5% of annual turnover.
    Siemens, which at half a million employees is Germany's largest private employer and one of the biggest companies in Europe, earlier announced further investments into Russia, with the company's CEO visiting Putin and Gazprom CEO Miller in Moscow for the occasion on wednesday. Considering Siemens is only investing small change (about one billion), the move is mostly seen as highly symbolic. The German government continues to give state guarantees for investment into Russia.
    Last edited by kato; 28 Mar 14, at 22:05.

  6. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Merkel said no to immediate harsher sanctions for Russia two days ago, but at the same time announced that there's pretty much a red line beyond which such an escalation would be deemed necessary.

    Merkel is currently busy with President Xi's visit though, with Ukraine being (a minor) part of the focus too.

    The buzz in the German press currently isn't so much about whether there should be sanctions, but to what extent sanctions would hurt the German economy - we're talking up to 7.5% of annual turnover.
    Siemens, which at half a million employees is Germany's largest private employer and one of the biggest companies in Europe, earlier announced further investments into Russia, with the company's CEO visiting Putin and Gazprom CEO Miller in Moscow for the occasion on Wednesday. Considering Siemens is only investing small change (about one billion), the move is mostly seen as highly symbolic. The German government continues to give state guarantees for investment into Russia.
    Glad to hear it; don't think sanctions will work to dissuade Putin now, though. Military threats, yes, but that's not happening, and those sanctions, whatever they be, kick in only if he invades. Still, it be a start.

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  7. #277
    Senior Contributor Bigfella's Avatar
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    tick, tick, tick.


    Win nervously lose tragically - Reds C C

  8. #278
    Global Moderator Defense Professional JAD_333's Avatar
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    Notarist:

    You were warned. Take one week vacation.
    To be Truly ignorant, Man requires an Education - Plato

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    700k or 1/3 left Kosovo in 2 decades. ~200k are Serbs.
    Actually it was far more than that. Germany alone received half a million Albanian Kosovars as refugees until end of 1999. We just sent most of them (two thirds) back down south over the next ten years, half of them forcibly.

    That episode actually partially led to a crackdown and legal tightening on German asylum rules, cutting the number of asylum seekers by two thirds. Took us ten years until we're now back to the top refugee destination in Europe again...
    Last edited by kato; 29 Mar 14, at 01:28.

  10. #280
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    Lately I have been thinking that once Russia takes over Ukraine (not necessarily complete incorporation) perhaps just political/economic aspects. Most of Europe becomes more stable long term.

    http://www.unian.net/politics/901867...-ukrainyi.html
    Russia is pushing for Federalization in Ukraine and Russian as second language.
    To note is that this is published on Unian, which is owned by Kolomoyski, which may mean several things.
    One the idea is receptive to at least part of the elite and west. Two there is a question of is this acceptable to various actors.

    Federalization of Ukraine makes it very neutral and in some sense EU integration becomes harder since you won't be able escape voting and more direct influence by the public. The cost of fracture after Federalization is higher since one constituency would be pre-packaged organizationally/structurally to leave. However stability would be higher as well. My guess is if Federalization does not occur the likelihood of Russia getting South-East and integrating it or making it a republic before integration goes up. You could create various structural shifts to achieve this from Yanukovich, to direct military involvement.

    The problem of Federalization is that 'western Ukraine' would be adamantly against it and the bureaucratic establishment in Kiev as well. Oligarchs would care less as long as they get pieces and it becomes easier to gain profits while controlling things. From Western point of view it would be extremely risky in the sense that once this happens Russia can press down certain levers, get South-East and still maintain control over what is left over in Ukraine. Fortunately or Unfortunately depending on your point of view the timeline horizon for choices is closing and it is in Russia's favor. This has to do with both the debt that is ticking on Ukraine, and the recapitalization via assets and settlement flows emanating from Ukraine.

    Risk is going up due to right-sector and "Western-Ukranian" bureaucratic-elite realizing that once the external push for rationalization starts their overall place in the structure of benefit/control/rule etc... is under threat. For them it stops being about united Ukraine but more of positioning in the class structure of whatever is left. My overall sense is that this push is giving both leverage to Russia and destabilizing the recapitalization aspects. For Europe this is becoming about damage control since they lost either way the only question is how much of a loss it is. There are two timelines one from Russia the other is economic, both are coalescing into a similar period. Maximum leverage will probably somewhere during default, since at that point not only will the debt write-off be unsalvageable but all future flows unsecuritizable in all spheres political/economic/market/security, etc.

    I find the whole situation a bit funny. It is very akin to a person having their house on fire and they are trying to negotiate with the fire brigade and their insurance company to maximize their benefit, only once the fire brigade tells the insurance company about this idiot he gets nothing. Europe is the idiot.

    From an economic perspective you could look at Ukraine as a flow of about ~50-70 billion as it is with 60-70% of it from South-East.
    (steel 32mt*[400 regular + 6/800 for value added]
    grain export of ~25mt*400 or total ~40mt* 400 if you consider flow dimension and complete currency cycles]
    + ~25 bil various things from sunflower oil, sugar beet, hydro electricity, gas-pipe, etc...
    MrSecond likes this.
    Originally from Sochi, Russia.

  11. #281
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kato View Post
    Actually it was far more than that. Germany alone received half a million Albanian Kosovars as refugees until end of 1999. We just sent most of them (two thirds) back down south over the next ten years, half of them forcibly.

    That episode actually partially led to a crackdown and legal tightening on German asylum rules, cutting the number of asylum seekers by two thirds. Took us ten years until we're now back to the top refugee destination in Europe again...
    Thank you for the input. I took the most moderate estimates on how many people are not in Kosovo today.

    This further validates my theory that either the operation failed or that wasn't the initial reason behind the strikes.
    No such thing as a good tax - Churchill

    To make mistakes is human. To blame someone else for your mistake, is strategic.

  12. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doktor View Post
    Thank you for the input. I took the most moderate estimates on how many people are not in Kosovo today.

    This further validates my theory that either the operation failed or that wasn't the initial reason behind the strikes.
    As I recall there was a bit if the old 'ethnic cleansing' going on, the vast majority of which was directed at kosovars. I also recall rather a large number of refugees driven into the mountains with winter approaching and Serbia resistant to a negotiated settlement - which was attempted at length. After what had happened in Bosnia there was a brief 'never again' moment that lasted long enough to ensure no repeat.


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  13. #283
    Senior Contributor Doktor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfella View Post
    As I recall there was a bit if the old 'ethnic cleansing' going on, the vast majority of which was directed at kosovars. I also recall rather a large number of refugees driven into the mountains with winter approaching and Serbia resistant to a negotiated settlement - which was attempted at length. After what had happened in Bosnia there was a brief 'never again' moment that lasted long enough to ensure no repeat.
    It's still controversial. Look at the numbers, according to UNHCR by June 9th 862.979 people fled from Kosovo.

    What I can tell you is that the number who crossed our border was minimal before March 24th, 1999.
    Last edited by Doktor; 29 Mar 14, at 11:46.
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  14. #284
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    Backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, UN Assembly declares Crimea referendum invalid
    27 March 2014

    In a vote that reaffirmed Ukraine’s unity and territorial integrity, the United Nations General Assembly today adopted a measure underscoring that the mid-March referendum in Crimea that led to the peninsula’s annexation by Russia “has no validity” and that the parties should “pursue immediately a peaceful resolution of the situation.”

    By a vote of 100 in favour to 11 against, with 58 abstentions, the 193-member Assembly called on all States, international organizations and specialized agencies not to recognize any alteration of the status of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol on the basis of the 16 March referendum “and to refrain from any action or dealing that might be interpreted as recognizing any such altered status.”

    The non-binding text adopted by the Assembly today contained similar language, underscoring that the referendum held in Crimea has no validity and cannot form the basis for any alteration of the status of Crimea or of the city of Sevastopol. It calls on all States to “desist and refrain” from actions aimed at the partial or total disruption of Ukraine’s national unity and territorial integrity, “including any attempts to modify Ukraine’s borders through the threat or use of force or other unlawful means.”
    United Nations News Centre - Backing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, UN Assembly declares Crimea referendum invalid

    100 countries had the moral integrity to state on the world stage that Russia's actions in Crimea were illegal and illegitimate.

    Voting against the resolution: Armenia, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.

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